You won't have to be angry at supporting two wars anymore!

[MannyGoldstein]

Now you can be angry about three wars: looks like the war against Libya starts in hours - we're going to impose a no-fly zone, which will first require a massive bombing campaign to take out antiaircraft sites. I don't believe that we've ever imposed a no-fly zone without it turning into boots on the ground.

I'm certainly not rooting for Qaddafi here, although I have no knowledge of his opponents being better or worse.

I hope this doesn't turn into another flaming bag of poo with a side order of shared-sacrifice for the bottom 98%, but I'm not at all feeling good about the likely outcome.

[Jackpine Radical]

1. I think my rec just dropped into a bottomless pit.

Haven't even heard it hit bottom yet.

I've been paying no attention--Are we going this alone, or is it a UN (or at least NATO) action?

[MannyGoldstein]

2. A bunch of unrecs already

I guess many at DU think war is kewl

[SidDithers]

78. +93 now..

don't you feel silly complaining about unrec?

Sid

[gateley]

5. It's the UN that's voting and as I just told Manny, we can't point the finger solely

at Obama.

The Opposition IS asking for help and that's something to consider - in my opinion, anyway.

I'm confident (pretty confident, anyway) that they will not let this escalate into a war -- who the hell would we send in, for one thing? And I'm not sure Congress has enough of a financial interest there to sanction it anyway. Although the Big Oil companies ARE there now rebuilding their aging oil processing infrastructure, so that might tempt some (that's why Bush decided Libya is now a friend of ours -- Big Oil pulling the strings again).

I'm not sure what the vote actually is, but I'm sure we'll be finding out pretty soon.

[gtar100]

85. If the American taxpayer can no longer give anymore,

does that mean the oil companies will pay for their own damn wars?

Naw. Squeezing blood out of poor people is a finely-honed, age-old tradition of the rich.

[madinmaryland]

83. Un-reccing for whining about the un-recs!

:D

[gateley]

3. It's not just us, Manny - it's the UN that's voting on it so you can't point the

finger solely at Obama. He's gone about this the right way, IMO. And the Opposition IS asking for help.

If you were POTUS, what would you do?

[MannyGoldstein]

4. Did I point the finger solely at Obama?

If I were POTUS, I'd stay out.

Do you think more or fewer people died in Iraq when we went after Saddam?

[gateley]

10. I know you weren't, it was just a general "you". Listen, you'll get no disagreement

from me on Iraq but as a DUer pointed out to me, this is a different scenario. We're not invading, we're not going in alone with token troops from a few other countries, this is going to be a UN effort.

If I were POTUS I wouldn't have escalated in Afghanistan, I'd yank our troops out of there and Iraq (as fast as it's possible to logistically 'yank' them out) and I would help with Libya since the people have asked for it. I wouldn't 'go in', but I'm not sure what they'll do. I think I heard air strikes mentioned in order to "enforce a no fly zone".

If I were a Libyan, and my tyrant leader was coming after us and claiming he'd show us "no mercy", I'd hope a bigger, stronger ally would help us succeed. Then leave us the hell alone.

[in_cog_ni_to]

8. How about send in the Arab League

and let them take care of their mess? We CANNOT afford another war. That's just a fact. This country can't take it anymore. Let someone else be the world's "Peacekeeper" for a change. Let them spend THEIR citizen's money.

[tabatha]

11. Most of the work will be done by the French, Dutch, Italians

Arab League and the UK.

[gateley]

15. Thanks - I didn't know that. Do you know what that "work" will entail? I have

no idea of how to impose a no fly zone nor what it actually means. I did hear that it's not merely the 'good guys' flying around making sure that nobody else is up there, that it's much more complicated and involves more than just cruising around.

[14thColony]

28. It will commence as a SEAD campaign

"Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses." That entails air and cruise missile strikes to render inoperative the entire Libyan air defense system. That means destroying or otherwise neutralizing all the air defense command posts, the air surveillance radar stations, the fighter direction control posts, all fighter air bases, all anti-aircraft artillery sites, and all surface-to-air missile units, most of which are fixed, but some of which are mobile and will have to be hunted down. Individual air defense missile complexes like the S-200/SA-5 system can be huge - each launch battalion consists of two separate radar posts, a battalion fire control post, six revetted launchers, plus the magazines where the spare missiles are stored. And the S-200 system can track and kill incoming aircraft at almost 200 miles away.

It won't be HARD to do, in that the Libyan air defense equipment is pretty outdated and (far more importantly) their crews are poorly trained in the use of it. But it will be time-consuming. Figure at least 72 hours of sustained strikes to render the system effectively inoperative, THEN the no-fly zone can be established (although during the SEAD campaign anything trying to take off will be destroyed anyway).

[gateley]

43. Thanks -- interesting. Wonder when it will commence. I bet Gadaffi is wondering, too. nt

[sad sally]

90. You can bet there will be no mistakes - will only be surgical strikes

which will not involve killing any innocent civilians, nor will any infrastructure be destroyed - only the bad guys and their weapons will be blown to smithereens. Ain't it terrific, as you point out, that once again we'll be involved in taking out an old, poorly trained military operation.

[14thColony]

93. Not only that...

Certainly there will be mistakes and innocent people will get killed -- this campaign is being thrown together on the run by 5+ countries at one time, so the probability of error is going to be abnormally high.

But also, there will likely be attacks against REBEL facilities/assets as well, simply because the situation is so fluid the countries involved will tend to ere on the side of caution, and if it has an air defense role, it will be destroyed.

I will say though I am tending to come down on the side of doing something. We (the world community) wrung our hands after Saddam Hussein massacred Kurds and later Shia Iraqis, and we lamented that we hadn't done anything to help them. After Srebrenica we asked "how could we have let this massacre happen, in Europe no less?" and we wrung our hands yet again after Rwanada and asked "how could we just stand by and witness a genocide and do nothing?"

Well, we have two courses of action: a) buy hand lotion to prevent chaffing because hand-wringing is all we can really ever manage, or b) do something to head off the NEXT massacre, which Gaddhafi has made clear in no uncertain terms will be the outcome if he retakes Benghazi. It's not like he's even trying to hide his intentions. He just assumes all the world will do is wring their hands and lament the horror of it all.

Inevitably we will probably manage to screw up the outcome in the long run, but at least several thousand Libyan civilians might still be alive to see us screw it up.

[gateley]

13. Understood and agree, but I'm of the belief (delusion?) that this won't be a

war. I hope I'm right.

I'm not sure anybody could help as immediately as we probably can. This is just supposition on my part, I haven't really paid that close attention as there's so much going on - I'm scattered.

If they were saying 'We'll go in and liberate the people and we will be welcomed with open arms and bouquets of flowers' I'd be screaming from the rooftops. I think this is a different situation and a different action.

[joshcryer]

25. It won't be, get rid of the heavy arms that Gaddafi got from the west...

...and he will fall quick.

[MikeW]

29. lol ... the Iraq no fly zone lasted from 91-03

I have absolutely NO CONFIDENCE in anything they say as far as duration.

Buy hey what the hell its only 400 million / week if we cover a limited area in the country according to thehill.com

We'll find the money, just take more out of education or anything else for the middle class in the US.

[in_cog_ni_to]

34. Thank you! G-d. I can't believe DU supports this after what we just

witnessed in Wisconsin last week! The Middle Class is suffering! Our schools are being bankrupted and now we find enough money for another damn war? Something is terribly wrong here.

[joshcryer]

50. I support the international community making a decision for the revolutionaries.

Sorry that isn't a good opinion here.

[reggie the dog]

69. me too

seeing as they are rebelling against a dictator and asking for international help i see i big difference between this and iraq, the people being massacred started out by having a protest because they wanted elections and they were shot down so they picked up arms and are being blown up along with civilians so i think the interntational community should help them out in this case.

[AllTooEasy]

80. That's because the DU supports Freedom over Oppression, and

I suggest you get on board. The suffering of our middle class and public sector workers is real, but they're not in the same league as the suffering of the Lybian people. How you can not see that is beyond me! Protect Bill's pension and 3 bedroom house, but to hell with Hussein, his mudhut, and 40 yrs of Qaddafi's boots on his back?!?!? That's liberal!

Solution to Wisconsin - easy. Raise taxes on the rich, pay off the debt.

Solution to Lybia - not so simple, but effective. Shut down Qaddafi's forces, and you can't do that by TALKING to him.

[MikeW]

89. news for you, Americans always come in last, even in their own country

And stop trying to tell posters at DU what to support and not to support.

Ill make up my own frking mind thank you very much.

So just can it with your self riotous BS!!!!!!!

Try being out of work, cant find a job, savings are gone, losing house and wondering how the hell

your gonna feed your kids next month.

Think it doesn't happen in the US? think again.

[joshcryer]

49. What? There was an uprising against Saddam. Guess what happened? They were massarcred.

Their rebellion ended very shortly. The Libyan people have been fighting without assistance for a month.

[bobbolink]

82. Yeah, it is only the middleclass who is suffering.

Thanks for the constant discounts.

Just don't expect the votes from poor people anymore, if you insist on leaving us out.

[gateley]

40. Yeah, CNN was explaining what strongholds Gadaffi has, which were airfields, and

said that Gates is worried that particularly on the northern coast, they've got LOTS of GOOD surface-to-air and anti-aircraft defenses. I thought - wryly -- yeah, wonder where he got those? :eyes:

The world is changing - and if we can help in a GOOD way, that makes me feel good.

[joshcryer]

51. Another thing that's important is that the resolution blockaids arms to Gaddafi.

He can't get resupplied except with small arms (illegally but they'd get in via the borders).

[joshcryer]

24. THE US DIDN'T EVEN AGREE UNTIL THE ARAB LEAGUE SIGNED ON

[in_cog_ni_to]

31. I KNOW, JOSH! That is not my point. The Arab League needs to do the dirty work.

NOT us! Why is that so difficult to understand? Let THEM create a No Fly Zone.

[joshcryer]

44. I ASSURE YOU THE UNITED STATES IS NOT DOING IT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT EXTENT

[Duende azul]

38. But the Arab League are asshats by themselfs mainly.

[Exilednight]

35. Bush went to the UN before invading Iraq.

Sure, he had Powell lie to the UN, but none the less he went there so it wouldn't look like a unilateral move from the US.

[joshcryer]

45. The UN resolution did not enable war, we were already at war. There was already a NFZ in place.

It was a fake bullshit PR move and the UN is an embarrassment for it.

[Exilednight]

47. You're partially right. There was a NFZ in place in Iraq, but

by going to the UN, Bush made the argument to remove arms inspectors and send in ground troops.

I agree that the UN is an embarrassment for it. They should of voted no and allowed the arms inspectors to finish their job.

[joshcryer]

48. Actually the UN *returned* arms inspectors. *Bush* used it as "proof" that the UN supported the war.

The US was still at war, there was no treaty or resolution saying that Iraq was not at war. What Bush did is removed the inspectors, at the extreme protest of guys like Fisk and Ritter, and then attacked. The UN played into his hands completely.

This time the United States did not forward any UN resolution, it was the Arab League who did it (along with a few EU states calling for it, particularly France). The United States, only then, did they jump on board. One can argue that the United States was one of the last to get on board.

[gateley]

88. We weren't the ones who introduced it, I don't think. I think I read UK and ....

France? Another EU country? Of course, they could have done it at our behest. But I firmly believe this is a completely different situation. Don't think that Biden has already divvied up the oil fields like Cheney did before "liberating" the people.

[Name removed]

54. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Scuba]

6. And the Reich-Wing war mongers will declare it a "hat trick". n/t

[ixion]

7. Libya, Pakistan, Yemen... the neocon war rolls on

despite the so-called 'change'.

[reggie the dog]

71. In Libya there is a popular uprising asking for help

as are the people of yemen, i was teaching my law school students about unemployment rates in north africa and the middle east, the 2 highest places of unemployment are libya at 30% and yemen at 35%, uprisings are not suprising in such a context

[DFab420]

81. You're right.. I mean the people of Iraq didn't need help...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saddam_Hussein

"" estimated 800,000 deaths caused by Saddam not counting the Iran-Iraq war.Estimates as to the number of Iraqis executed by Saddam's regime vary from 300-500,000 to over 600,000,[ estimates as to the number of Kurds he massacred vary from 70,000 to 300,000, and estimates as to the number killed in the put-down of the 1991 rebellion vary from 60,000 to 200,000. Estimates for the number of dead in the Iran-Iraq war range upwards from 300,000.""

[reggie the dog]

87. holy shit

the only difference i see is that there was not a well publicized public uprising, or that he was to stable in power, for the UN to want to go there. Had i seen people protesting in the streets before the iraq war i may not have opposed it but with numbers like that organizing a protest would be pretty damn difficult and deadly. it doesnt change the fact that they lied about wmds though, why didnt they just go the "we need to stop genocide" route with the UN?

[Kennah]

9. No problem, I got this y'all.

We invade Iran, and that merges the Iraq and Afghanistan wars together into the Asia War.

Libya will be part of the new Africa War.

Now we're back down to just two wars, and we can expand it through slow creep.

[BadgerKid]

20. Only 4 more continents to go

given the 30-year "war" here in the US.

[MannyGoldstein]

12. The unrecs are flying

Interesting.

[The Doctor.]

76. I imagine it's because this situation is indeed different.

The last time we enforced a no-fly zone, the regime wasn't actively bombing it's own population. Even then, it didn't turn into 'boots on the ground' until a mountain of bullshit was created to justify it.

You're making a very poor comparison.

[jwirr]

14. Three and a half. You forgot Pakistan.

[Initech]

21. Four: Iran

[chill_wind]

66. Shhhhh.

Talk like that needs to be shot down on sight.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x676312

[Arugula Latte]

16. Don't worry!

It will be over by Easter, and they'll throw flowers.


:sarcasm:

[readmoreoften]

17. And Libya's position between Tunisia and Egypt isn't a factor in this. Of course not.

There are mixed reviews on the ground. The National Front for the Salvation of Libya, a far-right, free-market CIA-backed group want boots on the ground. But they are a minority and I've heard plenty of leftist Libyans who don't want intervention. So when are we building our Libyan base?

[Riftaxe]

18. Maybe the EU will step up and

nevermind, I lost my head there.

[texastoast]

19. No money for education but plenty of Rethug money for war

Wonder how the teabaggers will react to spending money for this? Something tells me we are about to see hypocrisy on parade.

[Spike89]

22. I truly have no idea

My personal inclination is always to let sovereign countries settle their own affairs, but of course the world is complicated and interconnected and there is always history to deal with. I do believe that a no-fly zone is a much bigger deal than having a few jets on patrol--it will almost certainly require strikes against AA installations at the very least.
What we really don't know is exactly what the state of the opposition, the majority opinion of the people, whether that opinion is likely to be swayed by UN/US involvement, etc. In a lot of ways, it is akin to police responding to a domestic disturbance call--the situation is volatile and it can seem like total chaos to an outsider.
My hope is that the no-fly zone serves to lower the level of hostilities among the rebels and government and either a peaceful transition of power or sufficient reforms come about that the crisis de-escalates. Whether we like it or not, we (the UN, and the US) do have an obligation to use our power, influence, and military to protect innocent people. The hard part is always defining who the innocents are--some times you just have to go in blind and try to stop the bloodshed and hope you don't make it worse.

[joshcryer]

23. Your concern for the Libyan people is very sweet.

Your ignorance of the US's involvement is shameful.

[MikeW]

26. if the US is truly broke as the Senate says and were cutting money for our own people

Then its high time for another country to step up to the world police plate and have at it.

Were done.

[Thunderstruck]

27. There's a difference between a bogus offensive war to steal oil and

going into a country to keep its dictator from massacring an entire city.

[Duende azul]

39. Hello? Where`s your claim to go into Bahrain?

[druidity33]

62. there are more people in Benghazi...

than there are in the COUNTRY of Bahrain. And going into Bahrain would piss off the Saudis, so the US won't be a part of it. That action would HAVE to be Arab League only.

:shrug:

[Marr]

30. We'll all have to be doubly Serious© about austerity now.

These awesome wars aren't free!

[meow mix]

32. Unrec, but the hired killers in libya thank you.

[OhioChick]

33. And the war machine marches on n/t

[in_cog_ni_to]

36. Yep. PLENTY of money available for war. n/t

[xchrom]

37. I'm recommending this

I'm not sure yet it's a horrible idea if England and the US don't try
To get ahead of the Peoples movement.

[Lorien]

41. Four wars; there's also the undeclared war in Pakistan

plus the war that the rich are waging against the rest of us.

[nadinbrzezinski]

42. Well the Empire is unsustainable

[bvar22]

46. Oh Good.

Another opportunity for some Disaster Capitalism!
:patriot:
K&R

[FreeJoe]

52. Serbia

Did we ever put boots on the ground when we bombed Serbia back in the 90s?

[MannyGoldstein]

65. You're right, we did not.

But it did escalate into a broader air war, that's what I must have been remembering.

[Recursion]

73. And we put boots on the ground in Kosovo; 10,000 are still there (nt)

[Recursion]

72. Yes. They're still there.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_Force

We're also still occupying Bosnia and Herzegovina so that we don't have to officially partition it.

[jacquelope]

53. Not again. Not another foreign war. n/t

.

[Puregonzo1188]

55. Cruise missile humanitarianism seldom works.

Despite the dominant narrative it was a mess in Kosovo.

[TheKentuckian]

56. I'm only angry at the other two pointless adventures.

I think this is a reasonable action.

[Scuba]

57. "flaming bag of poo with a side order of shared-sacrifice for the bottom 98%,"...

Well said, friend. K&R.

[AsahinaKimi]

58. Those corporations that supply

the war effort must be giddy..getting more business.

[jtuck004]

59. The colonel has said if we hit him he reserves the right to strike

anywhere else in retaliation. That would end him, but maybe his sons can drag him off the throne first, before it develops into something much worse.

[Ikonoklast]

67. With what tactical capabilities?

He might have the ability to use terrorism, but as far as conventional warfare, he got nuttin'.

The EU is more than a match for the soon-to-be ex-dictator.

[jtuck004]

68. Absolutely that's what he was talking about.

It's really all he's got. But he is used to stomping around and getting his way with the more vulnerable. He tries the same voice on a world that would just eat him up. Either he knows or is delusional.

What might have happened now is that he announced his army has stepped down, but apparently reports are coming through that
they haven't stopped at all.

Sigh. I was so hoping it would be a 10 minute war. It's like the world against Texas. What a cruel, sadistic fool.

But we will see...

[area51]

60. Oh hell, no.

We have 100,000 people dying in this country per year due to lack of health care, that's a medical emergency that equates to multiple 9/11s each year. We're in the 2nd Great Depression, jobs are few and far between and our infrastructure is crumbling.

[Hannah Bell]

61. kr.

[malaise]

63. We never learn

not ever

[JVS]

84. Seriously. I thought with the end of the Bush administration using the frontal lobes would return.

Evidently using the frontal lobes isn't pragmatic.

[CJCRANE]

64. Britain and France are taking the lead on this. nt

[Safetykitten]

70. Oh it's gonna be a BIG bag of poo. Flaming of course.

[chill_wind]

74. Chill Manny. He's GOT THIS.

"In the case of Libya, they just threw out their playbook," said Steve Clemons, the foreign policy chief at the New America Foundation. "The fact that Obama pivoted on a dime shows that the White House is flying without a strategy and that we have a reactive presidency right now and not a strategic one."

How Obama turned on a dime toward war
Posted By Josh Rogin Friday, March 18, 2011 - 12:26 PM

At the start of this week, the consensus around Washington was that military action against Libya was not in the cards. However, in the last several days, the White House completely altered its stance and successfully pushed for the authorization for military intervention against Libyan leader Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi. What changed?

The key decision was made by President Barack Obama himself at a Tuesday evening senior-level meeting at the White House, which was described by two administration officials as "extremely contentious." Inside that meeting, officials presented arguments both for and against attacking Libya. Obama ultimately sided with the interventionists. His overall thinking was described to a group of experts who had been called to the White House to discuss the crisis in Libya only days earlier.

the meeting and the alignments and more:

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/blog/11505


"We've been in this place before, on the edge of making someone else's war our own. I think that would be a significant mistake. The cameras are already shifting away from the protesters and rather to pictures of US and NATO warplanes and ships."

Steve Clemons

http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/

No-Fly Zone Over Libya Could Backfire & Undermine Protests in Middle East

(...)

In short, a no-fly zone is a high cost, low return strategy that doesn't necessarily create a military tipping point in favor of the Libyan opposition. Gaddafi is at war with his own people, and it's natural and important to try and protect and help unarmed protesters and innocent victims -- but a no-fly zone may harm the situation more than help.

If the US and NATO impose a no-fly zone, it gives Gaddafi a frame he thrives in: Libya against what he calls the imperialistic and neo-colonial interventions of evil America and the West. Last week at the TED 2011 meeting in Long Beach, Al Jazeera Director General Wadah Khanfar underscored the significance that the protests shaking the entire Middle East were occurring without the clutter and distraction and potential delegitimization of foreign intervention.

This is important. A no-fly zone changes what appears on TV and changes the entire frame. What is happening in the Middle East will instantly become about what the West will do and won't do -- rather than on what the citizens who have had enough are doing for themselves.

I still believe we should help and there are ways to do so without a large military footprint.

more:

http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2011/03/no-fly_zone_ove/

****************************************

He's got this one, too, right?

Pakistan cancels US-Afghan talks

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=682236&mesg_id=682236

[RegieRocker]

75. I thought we needed to lower spending? So it was lies?

[Frisbee]

77. I guess Raytheon was crying about...

not enough Tomahawk missiles being fired at $1,000,000 a pop. Launching a bunch of them should make Raytheon very happy.

[AllTooEasy]

79. Love your posts Manny, but not this one...

I think Qaddafi is Cheney with absolute power. I'm sure the right wing hawks envy him.

These "freedom fighters" may not like us either, and gas prices are sure to go up if they take power, but if we don't do something militarily Qaddafi will slaughter these people and hoards of innocents. The US/West can't perputrate a freedom loving persona and stand by on the sidelines with this one. This (in)action will add fire to the criticism that the US/West uses the Arab/Middle Eastern/North African nations as it's personal gas stations, and props up/preserves dictators for it's self preservation. There's nothing to gain for the US by intevening, only consequenses, and that's why I love this UN resolution. Finally, the West has a soul.

[mmonk]

86. See Iraq.

[IowaRevolutionary]

91. more blood for oil. nt

[defendandprotect]

92. Agree --