U.S. Retail Sales Rise Above Forecast as Consumers Recover

[Scurrilous]

<snip>

"Sales at U.S. retailers increased more than forecast in November and optimism among small businesses rose to a three-year high, signaling the economy was gaining momentum as the holiday season began.

The 0.8 percent gain in purchases followed a 1.7 percent jump in October that was larger than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The National Federation of Independent Business’s sentiment gauge rose by 1.5 points to 93.2, the highest since December 2007, as more companies projected sales will grow.

Stocks rose and Treasuries fell as the figures confirmed a yearend-sales rebound at retailers like Target Corp. and Macy’s Inc. Even as the world’s largest economy strengthens heading into 2011, high unemployment and the risk of a prolonged drop in prices remain concerns for Federal Reserve policy makers meeting today.

"There’s no question this will be the strongest quarter for consumer spending since before the recession,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York, who correctly forecast the increase in sales. “The economy has pretty good momentum going into the new year."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-14/u-s-retail-sales-rise-more-than-economists-forecast-as-consumers-recover.html

[Crazy Dave]

1. Shopping for winter clothes and Christmas n/t

[Statistical]

2. YOY. (year over year).

Meaning comparing this "winter clothes and Christmas" purchases to last years "winter clothes and Christmas" purchases.

[Crazy Dave]

5. Just like with all the census and BP cleanup workers

"Oh boy look at all these jobs that have been created!" "WOOHOO! we're having one helluva recovery!"

Soon the census workers were sent home, after the media was kicked out of the gulf the workers were sent home too. After Christmas and all the returns, sales will be flat again until Valentines Day and unemployment will still be at 9.8% or higher.

[Statistical]

10. However that happens EVERY year.

The sales this Christmas compared to last Christmas and the Christmas before that are up.

Hence apples to apples comparison. Year over year increase.

Unemployment is going to be above 9% for all of 2011 ever under the most optimistic and utterly unrealistic expectations.
Unemployment will be north of 7% in 2014.

[Crazy Dave]

13. But when things are so bad any minimal increase is spun as good news

The stats I see these days are almost laughable. When they try to make a "0.8% increase" sound great, most normal and intelligent people know that is considered flat and someone could even provide statistics that could prove it is still a loss based on population growth, lower net profit margins and any other stats they want to throw in there.

This is the new normal.

Happy days are not here again, unless you are a manufacturer in China and unemployment might be right at 9% in 2014 at the current job growth rate. Of course that will be sun as a whoopi-do great thing too, "unemployment is down eight points from where it was two years ago" but what it really means is about ten million still out of work with about another two million working part-time and/or for less.

[dkf]

3. Amazon discounts are killing me...I can't help but buy at these great prices.

I think it's my biggest Christmas yet.

[Crazy Dave]

6. Free shipping too

The time and gas you save having everything dropped off at your front door is great.

[dkf]

14. More amazing...free shipping to Hawaii.

The fine print always says...for the 48 contiguous states only. Amazon is one of the few who doesn't shaft us.

[Crazy Dave]

16. I'm really impressed that they do that

I sell things on ebay but have yet to ship something to Alaska or Hawaii. I use priority flat rate for all of my shipping so hopefully if I ever do get buyers from there they can pay the same as everyone else.

[HereSince1628]

4. It means essential shit is wearing out...is this a good sign this time?

The recessions I've witnessed over the 6 decades I've wandered in this country almost always begin to turn as essential stuff wears out. My 6th christmas occurred during a recession and it was an opportunity to put shoes, socks, underwear, and such in colored paper. Back in the 50's much of that stuff was made in the southeasten US, so the underwear christmas may have helped the economy.

Now most of this crap is now made off-shore, I'm not sure it will mean much more than a ripple of holiday season spending.

[Crazy Dave]

7. That's an excellent point

Unless your rich or well off and your going to buy your spouse a car for Christmas like the commercials say you have to. Nothing is made here in America that would give manufacturing a good boost from Christmas sales.

[TwilightGardener]

8. Well, I did my part, these last couple of weeks.

[L0oniX]

9. Hype. n/t

[sarcasmo]

11. Consumer nation can not survive on buying alone.

[SOS]

12. Banks have resumed handing out credit cards

"Credit card offers are surging again after a three-year slowdown, as banks seek to revive a business that brought them huge profits"

Here we go again.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/13/business/13credit.html

[L0oniX]

15. I don't believe or trust anyone or anything any more.