Best Guess: Do we end up with troops on the ground in Libya?

[NightWatcher]

I know this is only supposed to be an air-support thing, but step back and guess based on your gut and/or how these things usually turn out?

Do we ultimately end up with troops on the ground in a combat (or support *wink*) role?

or

Will we remain at arm's length and only send missiles and flights over Libya?

[tekisui]

1. This is my fear. I honestly have no idea how it will play out.

I honestly don't think anyone knows, which is the scary part. Technically, it is supposed to be us, just getting the ball rolling with the NFZ, then we are to pass it off to neighbors to enforce. We'll see. We know how things can escalate and spin out of control.

[Hugabear]

2. What happens if the no-fly-zone fails?

What happens if the no-fly-zone fails? After all, you can kill people in large numbers with tanks and artillery as well, and those are much more mobile and easy to hide in heavily populated areas.

[HereSince1628]

3. A no-fly zone doesn't do anything to resolve the problems in Libya

It can deny the dictator and his family the use of some airborne assets--it wouldn't stop the use of short range missles.

But it can't resolve the problems between the rebels/freedom from Qadaffi fighters, and that stand off must be resolved before the NFZ can be removed. Because if it isn't, the Qaddafi forces simply go back up in the air when the NFZ is abandoned.

This is rather rather like holding the proverbial angry dog by the ears.

Frustration with the stalemate will lead those enforcing the NFZ into greater involvement if for no other reason than to be able to quit the NFZ. The way it goes, the next step down that path could be training and/or supply of the rebels by assets one of the European powers--as in C.I.A. or a hired mercenary force such as Xe.

[Shagbark Hickory]

4. I just don't know what to think anymore. If you asked me if there'd be a 3rd war on Obama's watch,

I'd of said of course not.
Now it seems like the most illogical answer is the correct one. So I'll go with "yes"

[Divernan]

5. Like say a US fighter jet crashes in Libya & a ground rescue is authorized?

I was going to post this reply earlier this morning, but last time I hypothesized like that, first I got called a tinfoil head, and then some super duper mod deleted my post, but left the tinfoil insult up.

Not so quick on the trigger this time, mods, oh pretty please, because Huffington Post just put up the headline that a US fighter crashed and a rescue mission is underway.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/22/libya-war-us-military-plane-crashes_n_838865.html


First Posted: 03/22/11 07:56 AM Updated: 03/22/11 09:35 AM
Important



LONDON -- A U.S. military jet crashed in Libya after an equipment malfunction but its two crewmembers ejected and are safe, the U.S. military said Tuesday.

(SCROLL DOWN FOR LIVE UPDATES)

Vince Crawley, a spokesman for the Africa Command, says both sustained minor injuries and were separated because they used parachutes to eject from the F-15E Strike Eagle jet at high altitudes, ending up in different areas.

The crash occurred Monday night at 2130 GMT (5:30 p.m. EST). Its exact location was not given.

One crew member has been recovered and an operation is currently under way to recover the other one - "but we know he's safe," said Ken Fidler, another spokesman for Africa Command.

[alsame]

6. My fear is that some sort of terrorist attack occurs somewhere

and is blamed on Libya. At that point, I think things would escalate very quickly and I wouldn't be surprised if we put troops in.

[tekisui]

9. Yeah, that seed was planted in the media a few days ago.

[FormerDittoHead]

7. In Vietnam, they called them "advisors", then look what happened... n/t

[Myrina]

14. Yep, "Peacekeeping" forces ...

:puke:

[TBF]

8. Based on history yes. nt

[Skip Intro]

10. I think troops are on the table if needed, but I don't think they'll be needed.

Other than special forces, who are probably already there.

[Skip Intro]

11. dupe

:shrug:

[ashling]

12. Isn't that the way these things always work out

I heard a news report or overtalk yesterday (I am sorry I don't remember which network) speculating that there were special forces in there now calling in targets,

[nevergiveup]

13. I am very pessimistic about the success of this mission

but I don't think there is a chance in hell we will send ground troops and I will bet the ranch on it.

[Divernan]

15. We had ground troops in Vietnam years before they were officially there.

I knew Navy ROTC/Marine option students in college in the late 50's and they said a battalion of Marines "officially" based in one of the SEATO member countries, was actually in Vietnam.
Here's a partial timeline of what was truly a slippery (from all the blood spilled) slope:

10 Aug 50 - First shipload of U.S. arms aid to pro-French Vietnam arrives; 1951 - U.S. military aid amounted to more than $500 million by 1951

12 Feb 55 - President Eisenhower's administration sends the first U.S. "advisers" to South Vietnam to train the South Vietnamese Army

5 Sep 56 - President Eisenhower tells a news conference that the French are "involved in a hopelessly losing war in Indochina"

8 July 59 - Two Americans are killed and one wounded during a Viet Minh attack 20 miles north of Saigon

13 May 61 - President Kennedy orders 100 "special forces" troops to S. Vietnam

11 Dec 61 - U.S. aircraft carrier "Core" arrives in Saigon with 33 helicopters and 400 air and ground crewmen assigned to operate them "for" S. Vietnam

22 Dec 61 - SP4 James Davis of Livingston, Tennessee killed by Viet Cong (VC) later called by President Johnson "The first American to fall in defense of our freedom in Vietnam"

[Bigmack]

16. I'll bet they are on the ground already... nt

[emulatorloo]

17. Proof?

[provis99]

19. this is a poll asking for people's guesses, dumbass.

[emulatorloo]

24. Maybe the poll is "dumbass"

[Bigmack]

20. "I'll bet" means no proof, but a good surmise....

Special Forces and Seals painting targets, scoping out the situation, a little extracurricular BSU, liaising with the locals....

Been doing that shit for years.... why wouldn't we now?

[JackRiddler]

18. Depends. Have they lined up a GTIE? (Gulf of Tonkin Incident Equivalent)

[TheKentuckian]

21. As UN Peacekeepers? Probably at some point to some degree. Under the US flag? Doubtful

[daa]

22. It always starts out as "advisors"

Has anyone figured out who the Chalabi is in Libya that is suckering us in?

[KurtNYC]

23. most likely special forces have been there since late february or earlier

As a total cynic, my question is does the MIC want "win" or a stalemate there?

[joe_sixpack]

25. If the humanitarian aspect of the situation

calls out so strongly for sympathy and action, why should we not utilize ground forces if air power proves unable to stop the killing of civilians? Are we going to put conditions on principles? Can we comfortably say that we feel compelled to act to stop the "slaughter" of innocent civilians, but only from the relative safety of 5,000 ft above your cities, or from the safe decks of ships miles off your coast? And if that doesn't work, well.. you're on your own, sorry about all the rubble you're left to clean up.