Both sides are in a propaganda war and both have already been caught exaggerating things more than once.
I personally think a significant portion of the army has gone over to the rebels side but not the paramilitary forces.
Who else is his support? Probably most who remember what Libya was like before Gaddafi
"tapped Libya’s new wealth to provide schools, hospitals and other benefits for Libya’s desperately poor, semi-nomadic population" and the people in the West who don't want the islamic fundamentalism of Benghazi, where they
closed down the public cinemas, sports leagues and youth activities organized outside the auspices of mosques, to spread.
According to this
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Libyan-Rebels-Share-A-Desire-To-Overthrow-Colonel-Gaddafi-But-They-Are-By-No-Means-A-United-Force/Article/201103315957078">Sky News article "the second biggest supply of foreign fighters (to Iraq) were from Libya".
My impression, after following this like a hawk from the beginning, is that the mosques in Benghazi had been whipping the younger men up for Jihad against injustice, against Western aggression in Muslim lands and, as Sabrina pointed out to me, against secular leaders like Gaddafi who they consider traitors to Islam.
The mosques in the rest of Libya weren't doing that for years which is why I think the youth of Tripoli didn't rush out to join the rebels.
That's a long way of telling you I think his support is more than the business elite. Most people probably wouldn't mind a change but not like this. If anything, the number of people supporting Gaddafi is going to grow now. We'll start finding out what the real numbers are if someone is suicidal enough to send ground troops in.
Watch this video too. It's important:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-o9IlpMHhs The first protest was an understandably angry protest against corruption and incompetence in government housing schemes for poor families. Here's the article that goes with it:
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/4032/World/Region/Libya-protest-over-housing-enters-its-third-day.aspxLibya protest over housing enters its third day
Frustrations over corruption and incompetence in government housing schemes for poor families spills over into protests across the country
Mohamed Abdel-Baky, Sunday 16 Jan 2011
An image published by Qaraina news website for vacant houses in Libya
...
The Libyan government has run subsided housing projects for poor families in several cities for years. However local authorities in some projects postponed the delivery of hundreds of housing units to the owners who have already signed contracts and paid most of the installments.
A statement released by the National Front for Salvation of Libya, an opposition movement established in 1981, described the frustration of the protesters in Bani Walid: “Bani Walid has no basic services; thousands of people are without houses and the local authority is corrupted, it only delivers services with bribes. Nothing will make Bani Walid calm but freedom, justice and transparency.”
Witnesses said that hundreds of policemen were observing the protests but did not intervene, even when hundreds of people broke in to some buildings under construction.
...
Al Jazeera TV network reported that police have been instructed by the government to avoid any clashes with protesters and to only protect government buildings and contain the protesters' anger
...
Read the whole thing.