Four categories of Arab regimes (& rebellions)

[Hannah Bell]

In the comments, writer says Arab youth have been misled by the relative ease of "success" in Egypt & Tunisia; they believe that all they have to do is stick out some demonstrations, bear a few beatings, & the dictator-in-residence will eventually accede to their demands.

The writer says it depends on the larger geopolitics & the category of regime being opposed:


1- US-backed republics, like Tunis and Egypt. The armies in such regimes are US-financed, trained and armed, and eventually advised. When the people in such regimes revolt, because of the corruption, the hunger, the poverty, the unemployment etc. USA hurries to side with the people, lest things become out of control, and with the help of the army disposes of the president and his cronies. Usually, a better US-backed leader is chosen to replace the former. This is what has happened in these two countries. This is what seemed an “easy” revolution.

2- Nationalist republics, like Syria, Libya, Sudan, and Yemen. The leaders cooperate with the West “USA” in one way or another but they are independent, and usually the presidents are remnants of the era of Nationalist leaders: Tito, Jamal Abdul Nasser, Nehru, Castro etc. They were Arab People’s idols before 30-40 years, but now are oppressing dictators. These leaders will not give in easily, because they think that their nations can not survive without them. They and the Nation are one: they are ready to fight for the last person. Such regimes will not surrender, and the revolution will not succeed, not until the country is occupied by regional or global powers. This is happening in Libya now.

3- US-backed kingdoms and shiekdoms, like Jordan, Morocco, Gulf states including Saudi Arabia. They sit on Energy resources, or/and have US military bases. They do not have significant armies. They have geopolitical importance to USA which will not tolerate change of regimes, so if people revolt, there will be a US-backed palace coup, or the king will just change the cabinet and introduce some reforms.

4- Already occupied countries like Iraq, where there are still occupation army, thousands of mercenaries, and special forces etc. non-violent demonstrations will not lead to a revolution and change of regime. Nothing less than a guerrilla war will do.

http://zeroanthropology.net/2011/03/18/the-libyan-revolution-is-dead-notes-for-an-autopsy/

[malaise]

1. K & R

:hi: