So if Ghaddafi writes off the east of Libya as lost and pulls most of his forces into the capital

[howard112211]

and the surrounding cities (which is probably what he will end up doing at some point), what then? What course of action should follow?

[shraby]

1. Depends on what kind of and how many forces he has left.

If shoved into a corner that small, many may abandon him.

[howard112211]

2. True, if this conflict is indeed a revolution rather than a civil war.

[Change Happens]

3. Call it whatever you like, our side will win...

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

6. "Our side" being the MIC and oil companies.

[CJvR]

4. If he does that...

...he is dead.

Sirte will probably be decisive. As long as it holds out the rebels are split in two and can be defeated in detail. Should Sirte fall, his main powerbase outside the Western brigades and his mercenaries, it will be game over. He can't retreat to a bunker and hope to ride out the storm, if he does his forces will most likely disintegrate completly.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

5. We'll do as we always do. Increase the defense budget and prepare the next bogeyman.

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.” H.L. Mencken

[formercia]

7. A lesson from the past :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9V7zbWNznbs

[Catherina]

8. That's when we partition the company in two with most of the oil and uranium fields

conveniently on our side. Nifty how the first thing the rebels did was go for the oil fields eh?


I found this thanks to an excellent thread by Webster Green

PETROLEUM & EMPIRE IN NORTH AFRICA
Muammar Gaddafi Accused of Genocide? NATO Invasion Underway.

keith harmon snow *
3 March 2011 (Revised & updated 4 March 2011 with slight additional revisions 19 March.)


http://www.consciousbeingalliance.com/2011/03/petroleum-empire-maps-for-north-africa/

I'n not even posting an excerpt. It deserves to be read in full.

[Ozymanithrax]

11. Check out a map you you will find that the people conveninelty...

live around those oil fields. Though don't live out in the middle of the dessert where there is nothing.

[Catherina]

19. *conveninelty* indeed. Like this is a humanitarian intervention or something like that n/t

[Ozymanithrax]

22. No, it is the settlement patterns. That is where you find the towns.

Most of Libya is desert without much of anything. Cities grow where there is commerce, where people work. The largest urban areas have grown where there is oil or other mineral wealth.

Those are the Urban areas that the Libyan government moved against.

I know there is a deep urge to make this all about oil so it is OK to Justify letting the Libyan die, but the situation is a bit more complex.

[Catherina]

23. Sorry. It's hard to take you seriously about the complexities of this. n/t

[Ozymanithrax]

29. I find the whole, its all about oil thing to be simplistic and irrational thinking...

There are many factors involved.

[Ozymanithrax]

9. We should support the rebel government. It is their country so it is their decision.

If they want to build a wall around Tripoli and wait for him to starve to death, that is their choice.

I support the No Fly Zone and targeted attacks on Libya military units attacking civilian targets. But sending in an invasion force to fight house to house is a violation of the UN call for a no fly zone.

So let the Libyans decide.

[Waiting For Everyman]

10. +1 Second that. n/t

[CJvR]

14. The problem with that...

...is that there are alot of people who will starve before Gaddafi.

[Ozymanithrax]

30. Yes, if a siege is laid on Tripoli, people will starve.

However, the UN specifically did not authorize an invasion and occupation by foreign powers. The foreign powers involved in the no fly zone don't have a desire for the massive losses that fighting house to house through Tripoli would involve.

So what happens is up to the Rebel government.

I do wish that Qaddafi listened to peaceful democracy protesters and left in February. He chose to get his sons to rally the armed forces and the military chose to just follow orders and kill demonstrates. It is an ugly mess and ore people will die before it is over. But going beyond the UN Mandate should not be contemplated.

[Cleita]

12. Does he become the mayor of Tripoli?

Who knows? However, the more his sphere of power shrinks, the easier it will be to dethrone him.

[Distant Observer]

13. The Rebels are the MINORITY! The rebels have rejected repeated calls for mediation or elections.

While Gaddafi opponents exist everywhere, just as Gaddafi supporter, the rebel support is mainly in
the clan base in Cyrenaica (Eastern province). They do not have great support in the rest of the population and can only dominate by force of arms -- a glaring fact that everyone wants to ignore.

[CJvR]

15. Actually...

...Cyrenica is a rebel stronghold mainly because Gaddafi didn't get a chance to smash the revolt there.

If the armored column had reached Bengazi and massacred the rebels, as was done in many cities back west, would you argue that Bengazi suddenly was a loyal Gaddafi stronghold? It took days for heavy artillery and tanks to crush most of the Western revolt and there still exists a few pockets that hold out but you seem to have forgotten that in your rush to swallow Gaddafi's propaganda load.

[Distant Observer]

20. I beg you to do a little research on the Libyan opposition. It is rooted in Eastern-based clans

regardless of what towns they occupy or dominate through the country.

[joshcryer]

27. You're spreading this falsity and it's not true, the Libyan people rose up in a dozen cities.

Most of them were in the west. Zawiya was under siege for three weeks before it fell. Misrata is still under siege (and cannot fall because it has a population of 300k).

[David__77]

17. If that is true, then facts will bear it out.

It is true that such intensive Western intervention could facilitate power seizure by even an unpopular political-military force. But if the rebels face significant opposition in the west, then we will see this in a clear chain of events.

[joshcryer]

26. Correct, and I predict this will not happen.

[joshcryer]

25. Patently false, they gave Gaddafi 48 hours to leave, no criminal charges would be filed.

He refused.

[bluestate10]

16. Follow Qaddafi into Tripoli and bomb his forces into purgatory. Time to rid the world of a

menace.

[David__77]

18. War fever is a terrible disease.

There is ample documentation on it.

[bluestate10]

28. Qaddafi is a monster. Neville Chamberlain-ism is an insidious disease that cause some to

not see that monsters don't back down from anything but force.

[bhikkhu]

21. Leave it up to the people of Tripoli

...one of the hardest things is to let people make their own decisions and guide their own fates, but that's the best way in the long term.

[joshcryer]

24. The people of Tripoli will rise up once again and you'll see what revolution looks like.

You all think that the people of Tripoli are all behind Gaddafi, but they're not.