Will 2011 be another 1938 or another 1941?

[FreakinDJ]

Will 2011 be another 1938 or another 1941?

At the moment, the U.S. economy is poised to exit the New Depression (Richard Duncan's name for the current depression), as shown in the graph below:



But last time the U.S. economy almost got out (1937), it fell back into a double dip and didn't leap out until 1941, as shown by the graph below:



Last year, 2010, was a lot like 1937. Consumption and business investment were growing, but government spending and net exports were stagnant. But in 1938 the U.S. economy fell back into depression as a result of a decline in consumption and business investment. It took a 13.92% increase in government consumption in 1941, related to World War II, to get the U.S. economy out. Here were the factors and their contributions to economic growth during those years:

http://www.idealtaxes.com/post3319.shtml

[xchrom]

1. recommend

[aSpeckofDust]

2. It'll be something new. Can't really use the old data..

We're already in a wartime economy, so what helped in 1941 won't exactly help here. Also our economic bubbles are happening at a faster rate that they did in the past so we may even be poised for another burst.

[jschurchin]

3. Neither 1938 or 1941

We are entering new territory here. Something very, very important happened in 1936, that more than anything else, brought the nation out of the depression.

The United Steelworkers of America began life on 17 June 1936 as the Steelworkers Organizing Committee (SWOC) of the Congress of Industrial Organizations (CIO).

Also from the link,

Other large firms in the industry known as "Little Steel" (because they were smaller than U.S. Steel) chose to fight the SWOC on the picket line rather than sign a contract. The Little Steel Strike of 1937 was marked by violence and ill will on both sides. The most famous incident of this dispute was the Memorial Day Massacre. Police killed ten strikers during a march on a Republic Steel plant in Chicago. Although the Little Steel firms managed to delay organization, the union filed multiple grievances under the National Labor Relations Act as a result of the strike. Thanks to legal victories in these cases and pressure for production due to war mobilization, the vast majority of steel firms in the United States recognized the USWA by the end of World War II.

We are entering a phase in American life were these hard fought victory's are being set aside in favor of Corporate Governance. More than anything else the rise of working men and women and their right to organize brought the United States out of the Great Depression.

We saw what happens when Corporate Governance is the driving force in America. From the late 1800's to the early 1900's 12 hour workdays for meager wages were the normal in America. Men like Carnegie, Frick, Morgan, and Schwab grew unbelievably wealthy on the backs of the working American. Somehow we have forgotten this lesson. But men like Koch, Forbes, Blankenfeld, Dimon and Buffett, have not.

Read more: http://www.answers.com/topic/united-steelworkers-of-america#ixzz1I5gR95ki

[FreakinDJ]

4. Thanks

[Hugabear]

5. Completely different. Most of the jobs that have been lost are now overseas

Try as I might, I just don't see how we're going to get those jobs back. We simply can't compete with the cheap labor available in many of these countries, and the powers that be have no intentions of combating that.