Prediction: Kloppenburg Will Win - Here's Why

[demwing]

According to the AP site, there are 9 counties with a total of 24 precincts not yet counted:

Sauk(8), Ashland(6), Crawford(2), Dunn(2), Milwaukee(2), Dane(1), Jefferson(1), Juneau(1), Taylor(1)

In those combined counties, Kloppenburg has taken an average of 62% of the votes so far.

Based on the total votes already counted per county, divided by the number of precincts already reporting per county, you can calculate the average votes per precinct in each county. Multiply that number by the precincts remaining, and you get the number of potential votes not yet counted:

Sauk(3559), Ashland(966), Crawford(329), Dunn(444), Milwaukee(940), Dane(737), Jefferson(556), Juneau(174), Taylor(202)

You can then either:
A. Find the sum of all potential uncounted votes (7908) and calulate the outcome based on Kloppenburg's avergae performance in those counties as a whole
B. Calulate each individual county using the same process

It doesn't matter. If trends hold (and that could be a BIG "IF"), Kloppenburg wins in either scenario.

A. (1081 margin)
Kloppenburg:
740,955 votes (50.04%)
Prosser:
739,874 votes (49.96%)

B. (3886 margin)
Kloppenburg:
740,608 votes (50.01%)
Prosser:
740,221 votes (49.99%)

The question is whether the trends will hold, and whether the counts have been done accurately. With such a slim edge, there will be a recount - that's got to be a given.

The way it looks right now, there is the potential that Kloppenburg will fall somewhere between scenario A and B, which will get a lot of Dems excited to see if her margin of votes equals that of Bush's "win" in Florida in 2000.

OH HELL BABY,

all this MATH, and now I see Kloppenburg is 600 votes ahead!!

WOOT!


http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/WI_Supreme_Court_0405.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[LynneSin]

1. In a nutshell - what counties host Madison & Milwaukee

Cities tend to be more liberal and have later vote returns. If those counties have not been returned then we're golden.

[demwing]

3. JUST UPDATED

On 5 precincts left

Milwaukee (2), Juneau (1), Jefferson (1), Taylor (1)

Koppenburg has the lead in Milwaukee and Juneau, Prosser in Jefferson an Taylor

As I write, Kloppenburg now leads by 311 votes.

[aquart]

2. Up by only 311 votes now.

Talk about a divided state. How can so many vote for their own destruction?

[forty6]

4. There's one answer to that question and it's Fixed Noise!

The ONLY reason this is even close is that the folks at Fox have convinced brainless Americans that labor unions are bad, that the Governor of WI is a hero, and that down is up and the Democratic sky is pink.

[L. Coyote]

5. Details here: I'm declaring the winner in Wisconsin Supreme Court race

I'm declaring the winner in Wisconsin Supreme Court race
Tue Apr-05-11 07:35 PM PST
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x821883

[demwing]

6. Taylor and juneau counties are in, Kloppenburg still leads!

Kloppenburg: 739,317
Prosser: 739,557

240 vote difference, Jefferson (1 prrecinct) and Milwaukee (2 precincts) are still out

[jberryhill]

7. +224 now

[Viking12]

8. No matter what the count is, the race will ultimately be decided by recount

With a 0.01% margin, it is all but guaranteed.

[demwing]

9. you betcha!

but we WANT the headline. Still waiting on three precincts...

[Viking12]

10. True enough. It's advantageous to go into the recount with the lead.

Especially, on a PR level.