why trump is leading the pack and will win the republican nomination:

[unblock]

because the professional politicians know that obama will win the election and they don't want the stigma of losing in the general. they're in it to position themselves for 2016, when they stand a far better chance.

trump is in it for the publicity and the notoriety, so he doesn't mind losing.

[no_hypocrisy]

1. Violent head shaking.

No, I don't agree.

Trump would never let himself be set up to debate Obama. He couldn't control the message and keep his cool. Trump has a hair-trigger temper.

[unblock]

5. you're likely right, but i'm quite sure he THINKS he can rise to the occassion.

and very likely he can. republicans have great training programs for candidates who are happy to ignore the question or the opponent's answer and simply spout the prepared lines.

frankly, it's quite easy to act like a republican candidate. much harder to act like a democrat; you have to have facts and engage in an actual exchange of ideas.

[Cleita]

2. Trump has stated that he's running as an Independent,

not that it means that much cause he's really not running. It's a publicity stunt.

[KaryninMiami]

4. And if he does run as an independent and keeps up with the birther bullshit- ,

it will only help us in the long run because he'll pull tea bagger votes from the GOP. But I don't think he's really running anyway- I think it's about the publicity and his big ego .

[RKP5637]

6. Yep, he's just branding the Trump name even more by doing this. He stands to

collect even more big profits by using the free advertising. It's a clever gimmick to get free publicity.

[MrTriumph]

3. At 8+ unemployment Pres. Obama is in HUGE trouble.

x

[RKP5637]

7. It's really more like 16% plus, unemployment, underemployed, quit looking, etc. n/t

[unblock]

12. whatever trouble obama is in is quite marginal, actually

the economy getting better (far slower and more lopsided than most of us would like, but it is getting better) and that matters far more than the absolute numbers.

moreover, incumbency is a huge help, the likely lack of a credible democratic challenger helps (i know some here disagree, but i don't think any challenger will get far -- as with the republicans, the serious candidates will wait for 2016), the lack of a foreign policy debacle helps, the lack of a scandal helps, and (when he tries, at least) he's very charismatic. i'm a big fan of lichtman's 13 keys to the presidency, and so far obama is in good shape.

[Andy823]

8. Trump is a joke!

Another clown in the republican "circus" nothing more! If he actually won the nomination he would have to open up information on his finances, business dealings etc., and he isn't going to do that!

[unblock]

13. agreed, but so was quayle, so was palin, and so was shrub.

modern washington politics is a joke, face it.

[AndyTiedye]

9. His Job is to Spew the Birther Lies on the Tee Vee

Just keep repeating that crap over and over and the stooopid will eat it up.

[cali]

10. sorry, but that's ridiculous. he doesn't stand a chance and no

way will the ptb in the puke party allow it. silly season is upon us when duers posit that trump will be the nom.

[EarlG]

11. I'm not so sure he'll win the nomination

We shall see, but just to put things in perspective, here's a Quinnipiac poll from May 3, 2007 (edited for clarity):

Giuliani                27 
McCain                  19
DK/NA                   16
Thompson, F.            14 
Gingrich                 8     
Romney                   8     
Huckabee                 2     
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2
Hunter                   1     
Brownback                1  
Thompson, T.             1    
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1 

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1055

Giuliani spent $50 million and ended up with one delegate.

[RagAss]

14. Rudy ! We hardly knew ye !

[LiberalAndProud]

15. I think your crystal ball is a bit cloudy.

If I were to guess, I'd say he'll suspend his campaign before Nebraska's primary. I am hearing echoes of the Ross Perot campaign (or is that my imagination?)

This "campaign" will end not with a bang, but a fizzle.

[Motown_Johnny]

16. some believe that God wants them to win and won't take a pragmatic approach

Although if Trump is willing to sink $600 million of his own money into a campaign, plus the usual (R) money, plus the post Citizens United money....


This election is going to be a mess.


I hope Democrats run anti-ad ads because we will all be sick of seeing them long before election day comes

[Solomon]

17. LOL Trump is the democratic primary challenger everybody

has been hankering for.

You guys wanted a primary challenge. Embrace him.

[mweathermay]

18. Nah

No way is he going to win