Paging DU Sleuths and analysts- More Anomalies in Prosser -Kloppenburg Race (Waukesha)

[eowyn_of_rohan]

I didn't see this posted - apologies if it has been.
By Eric Nelson - OpEdNEWS
April 19, 2011

With all of these anomalies and calls for investigations and considering the initial closeness of the race between Prosser and Kloppenburg we decided to look at some of the county by county election totals. We went under the hypothesis that any major attempt at election fraud by either party might shift variables that presumably would be mostly random into something that might be less random.

We compared the vote totals per ward to the vote spread between the two candidates in counties that were strongly partisan. Because some of these counties had significant differences in vote totals we combined multiple counties in some cases and normalized the data so that the standard deviation was between 60-75% of the median vote for each county.

We noticed a very interesting difference, of about 15 different counties that we looked at that were either strongly Democratic or strongly Republican, only Waukesha county and to a lesser extent Washington and Ozaukee showed positive correlations between vote totals and vote spread (see figure 1 below). What this means is that in Waukesha as the number of votes that were tabulated in a particular ward became larger the magnitude of Prosser's victory tended to become larger.



When we looked at counties where Kloppenburg won by a large margin such as Dane, Ashland and Bayfield counties there was no correlation between the vote total in a particular ward and the vote spread between Kloppenburg and Prosser. This was also true for Douglas and Eau Claire counties.

One explanation would be that higher voting wards and more populous wards tend to vote more Republican. But that goes against the conventional wisdom and well established national trends that urban areas in the Midwest and Northeast vote more Democratic and rural areas vote more Republican.

Another possible and more nefarious explanation would be that in these higher voting wards election voting machines and optical scanners are more likely to be in use. This raises the possibility that some of these electronic voting machines have been reprogrammed to flip votes to a particular party or candidate in areas with high vote totals. The rationale for this would be that it would be much easier and more efficient to flip votes in heavy turnout and heavily partisan voting wards and the likelihood of being discovered would be far less.

This type of data would certainly warrant hand recounts in wards that had high vote totals, used some type of electronic device in the vote tabulation and showed a very large spread between candidates. Hopefully both candidates care enough about our democracy to want to restore public confidence in the process. Given all the problems that have already occurred in Wausehaka county only a hand recount will accomplish this.

Nelson also adds: About Milwaukee County
Because Milwaukee county was so much larger and complex we did not do a thorough investigation of this county. It would warrant being broken out into the wards that showed high vote totals and were highly partisan for either candidate. It would be an interesting comparison.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Whats-wrong-with-Waukesha-by-Eric-Nelson-110419-812.html

[Aerows]

1. Hand recount

If a hand recount isn't done, no one will trust the electoral process in Wisconsin, and many in other states will have doubts, too. Pressor should be leading the charge to demand a recount, because with the lead he supposedly has, he will end up the winner anyway.

[robinlynne]

2. i don't know who you are, but I am a fan!!! Thank-you for doing this work.

[eowyn_of_rohan]

3. I just found it - I need some left-brained DUers to take a look at it!

Further analysis or commentary on this needs to be done by experts :)

[robinlynne]

4. yep. read the original, realized it wasn't you.

[deminks]

5. K&R I posted earlier in the election reform forum, but it needs to be seen

far and wide.

[eowyn_of_rohan]

7. Glad you posted it there, too

Thanks

[groundloop]

6. What came out of a report that there were more votes reported than cast in Waukeshaw?

I haven't seen that claim repeated, did it turn out to be incorrect?

In any case the way the voting played out was certainly strange, it doesn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling about our democracy.

[eowyn_of_rohan]

8. no, it didnt turn out to be incorrect. The Govt Accountability Board

is looking into it. They had better do a good and honest job of it...

[groundloop]

9. Very fishy. Ex Walker aide just happens to find more votes for him at the last minute....

At the very least she's incompetent and needs to be removed. If they find wrongdoing someone needs to spend time in jail.

[librechik]

10. that was another incident a few years ago, not the current election.

But Kathy was the election supervisor and she "did" it.

[eowyn_of_rohan]

11. BREAKING: GAB: Statement regarding Waukesha County investigation

4/19/2011
MADISON, WI – The Wisconsin Government Accountability Board staff has completed its review of election results from Waukesha County for the Wisconsin Supreme Court race between Justice David Prosser and JoAnne Kloppenburg. A statement describing our review is attached.

We are satisfied that the numbers reported by the municipalities were consistent with the numbers certified by the Waukesha County Board of Canvassers. Although staff identified a few anomalies, the G.A.B. finds no major discrepancies between Waukesha County’s official canvass report and the documentation provided by the municipalities.

G.A.B. staff members spent four days reviewing the election materials from all reporting units in Waukesha County, and interviewed Clerk Kathy Nickolaus. We will continue our investigation into issues related to the reporting of vote totals on Election Night and reports from the 2006 election posted on the Waukesha County website.

[Ellipsis]

13. There were two write ins for Kloppenburg that were not counted.

...and one vote for Prosser was missed.

[eowyn_of_rohan]

14. this is just re the official canvass and the municipal report

which we figured would basically match up.

G.A.B says "Although there were some anomalies identified, the G.A.B. found no major discrepancies between Waukesha County’s official canvass report and the documentation provided by the municipalities. This does not warrant correction of the canvass absent any post election proceedings. A more thorough discussion of these anomalies will be provided in the agency’s complete report."

[eowyn_of_rohan]

12. kick