What would you do based on the
2010 OASDI Trustees Report :
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Under the intermediate assumptions, OASDI cost is projected to exceed non-interest income in 2010 and 2011 due to increased benefits and reduced tax revenue as a result of the economic recession, and to an expected $25 billion downward adjustment to 2010 income that corrects for excess payroll tax revenue credited to the Trust Funds in earlier years. For 2012‑14, however, non-interest income will exceed cost as the economy recovers. OASDI cash flow, excluding interest, will then become negative in 2015 due to demographic trends. Throughout the period 2010 through 2024, trust fund income, including interest income, is more than is needed to cover costs, so combined trust fund assets will continue to grow. Beginning in 2025, combined trust fund assets will diminish until assets are exhausted in 2037.
Based on the low-cost assumptions, the trust fund ratio for the DI program increases from 2017 through the end of the long-range projection period, and reaches the extremely high level of 1,799 percent for 2085. At the end of the long-range period, the DI trust fund ratio is rising by 36 percentage points per year. For the OASI program, the trust fund ratio rises to a peak of 422 percent for 2018, drops to a low of 282 percent for 2048, and rises thereafter to a level of 457 percent for 2085. At the end of the period, the OASI trust fund ratio is rising by 8 percentage points per year. For the OASDI program, the trust fund ratio peaks at 376 percent for 2019, falls to 306 percent for 2041, and increases thereafter, reaching 622 percent for 2085. Because the trust fund ratios are large and increasing at the end of the long-range period, subsequent Trustees Reports are likely to contain projections of adequate long-range financing of the OASI, the DI, and the combined OASDI programs under the low-cost assumptions. Thus, under the low-cost assumptions, each program would achieve sustainable solvency.
In contrast, under the high-cost assumptions, the OASI trust fund ratio is estimated to peak at 400 percent for 2011, thereafter declining to fund exhaustion by the end of 2032. The DI trust fund ratio is estimated to decline from 156 percent for 2010 to fund exhaustion by the end of 2015. The combined OASI and DI trust fund ratio is estimated to decline from 354 percent for 2010 to fund exhaustion by the end of 2029.
Thus, because large, persistent annual deficits are projected under all but the low-cost assumptions, it is likely that income will eventually need to be increased, program costs will need to be reduced, or both, in order to prevent exhaustion of the trust funds.
Even under the high-cost assumptions, however, the combined OASI and DI funds on hand plus their estimated future income would be able to cover their combined cost for 19 years (until 2029). Under the intermediate assumptions, the combined starting funds plus estimated future income would be able to cover cost for 27 years (until 2037). The program would be able to cover cost for the foreseeable future under the more optimistic low-cost assumptions. In the 2009 report, the combined trust funds were projected to become exhausted in 2029 under the high-cost assumptions and in 2037 under the intermediate assumptions.
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