Question for Canadian DUers: Is the NDP's surge helping or hurting Stephen Harper in the election?

[marmar]

I read this story from the Globe & Mail, but I'm not sure what to make of it:



....(snip)....

Nationally, Mr. Nanos has Stephen Harper’s Conservatives 12 points ahead of the Liberals – 39.0 per cent compared to 26.7 per cent. This is the second consecutive night that the Liberals numbers have decreased.

The NDP, meanwhile, is at 22.1 per cent – up from 19.8 per cent the night before. The Bloc Québécois is at 7.5 per cent and the Green Party is at 3.4 per cent.

“The New Democrats always have difficulty maintaining their support above 20 per cent, at least in the past,” Mr. Nanos said. “So the big question is, is that their new normal? Can they sustain it?”

Again it’s the regions that tell the story of this campaign, with Jack Layton as the protagonist. ............(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/with-layton-surging-pollster-sees-wild-ride-ahead/article1994104/

[Posteritatis]

1. It takes a lot for someone to go from Conservative to NDP or vice versa

They're at the opposite ends of our political spectrum here; it's a significantly bigger gulf than Democrats versus Republicans. NDP gains and losses are usually at the expense of, or to the benefit of, the other parties on the left. This time around most of their gains seem to be coming at the expense of the Bloc.