Early 2012 Electoral Map from Larry Sabato

[marmar]

http://www.mediaite.com/online/too-soon-larry-sabato-releases-first-electoral-map-of-2012-campaign-season/





Yeah, yeah, we know: the election’s not even this year. Eighteen months or something. But look, it’s never too early for our first Larry Sabato electoral map! Obviously, this one comes with a whole crapton of caveats and asterisks: “This is merely a baseline from which we can judge more reliable projections made closer to the election. Where did we start–before we knew the identity of the Republican nominee for president, the state of the economy in fall 2012 and many other critical facts?”

[Hosnon]

1. If that is accurate (big if), Obama only needs 20% of the tossup electoral votes.

Or 23.

[LynneSin]

12. And with what Kasich and Scott have done to their respective states...

I highly doubt Ohio or Florida will be toss-ups. They'll be more like TOSS-OUT states, like unloading their republicans at all levels.

[blue neen]

16. Add Corbett to that list.

People around here are PISSED! I mean, lifelong-Repunlican-voting people. Some are people who watch FOX News everyday!

Some of them are seeing what the Marcellus Shale Drillers are getting away with right on their property lines, the fumes, leaks, explosions, truck traffic, polluted or dead water wells--and the destruction of their property values. It's finally hitting some of these people right between the eyes...and they're also bitching that Governor Gashole refuses to tax these oil companies with extraction taxes.

They are also realize as a result of Corbett's give-aways to the Oil Companies and his draconian cuts to school districts, that their property taxes are going to up--at the same time the school districts are cutting teachers and activities to try to make up the slack.

For the first time in my life, I heard ladies complaining about a politician at the BEAUTY SALON! :)

This is in a really red area of southwestern PA; rural, conservative Republicans.

[LynneSin]

17. Is there a way to find out where they are fracking in Pennsylvania

My mother setup some deal with a natural gas company to allow a pipeline to go thru some property we own in NC Pennsylvania. I'm worried they might be doing it near there.

Corbett is a one termer too.

[blue neen]

22. That's a good question...and I'll do some research to see how to find out.

It would not surprise me a bit if that's what they are doing near your property.

[blue neen]

24. Here's a fairly up-to-date resource for Marcellus Shale sites.

http://data.fractracker.org/cbi/snapshot/page?concept=~0168835d42184d11e080fd8786152579aa

North Central Pennsylvania looks pretty well saturated.

[Drale]

2. Is Arizona really that full of tea baggers

that they would elect them again? I know thats how the M$M makes it seem but I don't trust them at all.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. I disagree with this map...

Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire and Iowa should be lean-Democratic. Neither are toss-ups and won't be in 2012.

The true toss-up states then are: Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina.

But those four I peg as lean-D give Obama 272 electoral votes - or enough to win the presidency.

[SoCalDem]

7. my guess..

[Proud Liberal Dem]

20. Agreed

I think that Indiana and North Carolina will likely go Red in 2012. Virginia is questionable but could probably be won by Obama (and hopefully we can keep Webb's Senate seat). Ohio is definitely winnable with Kasich's help and Florida could very well remain in play for Obama in 2012 with Scott's help. Projections depend greatly on who the Republican nominee, of course, but I don't see the Republicans prevailing next year at all.

[Drunken Irishman]

21. I think Indiana goes red but Obama wins North Carolina.

[FLPanhandle]

4. All of the Safe R, Likely R, & Leans R are less than the Safe D

Pretty good.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Indiana and North Carolina should be Lean R

Those states are only tossups if Obama wins by huge margin nationally, like the 7 point edge over McCain in 2008. Even with that net he barely carried North Carolina and Indiana, by less than 10,000 votes apiece if I remember correctly.

The typical relationship between self-identified liberals and conservatives in those states doesn't justify placing them in the toss up category.

Florida is also properly a Lean R, although not quite to the extent of North Carolina and Indiana. The state preferred Obama by only 2.5 points in 2008 despite the +7 national margin. That type of weak performance in a massive Democratic year doesn't apply great confidence in a more balanced cycle like 2012. Besides, Florida's unemployment rate is nearly 3% greater than the national average.

In looking at that map I don't think Sabato is evaluating the state economies. Many of those upper midwestern states belong in a tossup category, IMO.

Georgia and Texas are Safe R. Obama literally would have to carry the national popular vote by 10+ points to have a fleck of a chance in either one.

[SoCalDem]

6. Here's one I posted yesterday.. make your own

Click to make your predictions

bare minimum needed:

[Change Happens]

14. Florida was solidly RED in 2010, going to be real tough....

Romney is strong here too!

[SoCalDem]

15. But there are a LOT of older folks there who will NOT take kindly

to the republican plan to do in SS.. If dems are smart, they will take this ball and run with it.. FL could throw OUT a whole lot of R's in 12:)..and I don't think Mittens will be the candidate

[Dappleganger]

18. Florida is being stacked for republicans right now.

There is no way I seeing it going to the D's in 2012. Governor Voldemort is doing everything in his power and out of his power to make it so.

[Johonny]

8. doesn't this assume people will be allowed to run in that state

some of the new birther bills make it seem impossible for any candidate to actually be eligible to run in the state :)

[Renew Deal]

9. Looks like the 2008 map

:shrug:

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

10. WI, MI, PA are NOT "Lean D"! These states are at least "Likely D"

and have voted for D's for president most of the time.

As a fellow political scientist, I love Larry, but I question some of these projections.

[blue_onyx]

11. I agree

I'm not sure why Minnesota would be likely D while WI, PA, and MI are lean D.

As far as a prediction, it's hard to do without knowing the Republican candidate. If they go with someone seen as moderate/reasonable, it will probably be close and come down to 1-2 states (Florida, Ohio, Virginia). If they go for a far-right candidate like Bachmann, Palin, or Gingrich, it will be similar to the 2008 map, maybe with an extra state or two going blue (like Missouri).

[Change Happens]

13. If we are brave enough and bold enough, we bring immigration up for real & force debates and a vote

In Congress!!!

You know the pukes are on the wrong side of this issue - BIG TIME!

We will win CO and NM and NV, and I dare say it: WIN TEXAS!

[Safetykitten]

19. Indiana and Ohio tossup? Not likely. Arizona likely R? Try cement R.

[Robb]

23. "Well, when you're right 52% of the time, you're wrong 48% of the time!"

"...and that's Jimmy Apollo's LOCK OF THE WEEK!!" :D