"The Age of Cheap Energy is Over" - IEA

[bhikkhu]

One of these scenarios – the ‘New Policies Scenario’ – takes account of the broad policy commitments that have already been announced by governments. It assumes cautious implementation of national pledges made at the UN Climate Change conference in Copenhagen to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by 2020, and also assumes that new measures are introduced after 2020 to maintain the pace of decline in carbon intensity.

In this scenario, by 2035, three-quarters of the world’s oil production from existing fields will need to be replaced, Mr Tanaka said.

That works out to just over 50 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to about four times the production capacity of Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer.

http://www.iea.org/index_info.asp?id=1928

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I know there is some sentiment that the whole issue is a conspiracy between corporations and profiteer-governments, and if we just got the politicians to handle things we'd be back to normal...but if you've followed the problem for much time, its worth considering that there is no normal, now or in the future. It doesn't matter where you place the blame, things will be different.

It would be most pragmatic to prepare for a future of less abundant and more expensive energy, and realize the whole world's in the same boat on this one.

[buddysmellgood]

1. Nothing will bring on the era of cheap, boundless energy more quickly than a steep increase in

energy prices. It gets expensive and people conserve and start looking for inexpensive options. Solar, wind and biomass will take over.

[bhikkhu]

2. But realistically, cheap and boundless are unlikely to apply

Even today solar, wind and biomass are practical alternatives, within an infrastructure "subsidized" to some extent by cheap oil. Without oil energy, all the alternatives become more expensive, rather than the other way around.

One worry is that people will continue to make bad choices and bad decisions based on the idea that cheap, boundless energy is somehow likely.

[Hestia]

3. Then we are going to have to suck it up and live differently - sharing of resources

rather than trying to go it alone. If we had a real leader to get us used to the idea, we could do it, but all we get is ALEC talking points day after day saying we are stealing their hard earned theft. We need leadership badly.

[buddysmellgood]

4. We are entering a time of pain, but we are very close to making solar

work. It will likely be ten years.

[bhikkhu]

5. There's some pretty good and inexpensive solar set-ups on Ebay

...if you don't mind doing some learning and some of the work yourself. You can also get panel "2nds" very cheap.

I've thought about it, but decided I'd still be better off spending the time and energy (and money) working in the garden. Electricity is still very cheap and reliable here. On the other hand, transportation is more and more expensive; I commute and do most of my errands by bicycle.

[Taverner]

6. I respectfully disagree

Yes, the days of cheap oil and natural gas are over

But with Solar, Wind and Tidal power, life has just begun

As solar panels get more and more spherical, they will be more and more efficient

There will be a growing movement in the next 5-10 years that supersedes politics to get our homes off the grid

This is the last thing Big Oil wants, but they are powerless to stop it

They will try all kinds of things to stop it, lobbying congress to tax the shit out of it, depicting off-the-gridders as crazy or hippies, but it will not work

When we in this world have a choice from a $500 monthly electric bill or a $0 monthly electric bill, we will choose the latter

BTW: Getting off the grid has nothing to do with how it's portrayed in media. They depict it as running to the hills, eating wild game and in general hiding

Getting off the grid can be done in the middle of a big city, or in a suburb. It simply means sourcing your own power, water and connections