Poll: Heller, Berkley in dead heat in Nevada (Senate 2012; would be D pickup)

[UrbScotty]

Source: The Hill

Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) is locked in a statistical dead heat with Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) in the race for retiring Sen. John Ensign's (R-Nev.) seat, according to a new poll out Tuesday.


The latest numbers on the Nevada race from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling found Heller up 47 percent to 43 percent over Berkley, which is within the poll's margin of error. The last time PPP surveyed the race in early January, Heller was up nine points.


Heller's numbers are largely as result of strong support among independent voters — the Republican holds a commanding 56 percent to 29 percent advantage among independents.

Read more: http://dscc.me/GzFJ

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Heller, as expected, has been appointed to the Senate to replace Ensign: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4829902

As the campaign picks up steam and people hear more from Berkley, she should do better among both Democrats and independents.

[elleng]

1. This is good news, of course, but like all polling today, a BIT premature!

[Bandit]

3. There is only 180 days until the election so not really to early to get a feel for things.

They have to hold a special election within 180 days after the Governor makes the appointment which I gather he just did..

[Pab Sungenis]

4. That's for his House seat.

If I'm not mistaken, Nevada law lets him serve until the end of the term at this point.

[Bandit]

6. I believe he was just appointed to the US Senate by their Governor.

So the poll is really irrelevent but the Democrat will be running for his House seat which just became vacant. I have no idea what Republican will be running..

[UrbScotty]

8. Definitely. But if it's this close this early...

...then that can't be good for the soon-to-be incumbent.

[Iliyah]

2. Too early

wait until next year. If the gopers aka tea brats continue on this path of pure destruction and the wars against women and minorities, Dems will get back the house, have a safe majority in the senate, and a very happy camper in the white house.

BORN IN THE U.S.A!

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Heller has to be the favorite

Worst possible opponent we could draw statewide. He's already been elected statewide three times as secretary of state, and during that period he gained a reputation as a harmless moderate, partially due to pushing for a paper trail on Nevada's new electronic voting machines. Consequently Heller has strength with independents while simultaneously heavy approval and name recognition in conservative northern Nevada, where he's served several terms in NV-2.

Heller is boyish and pleasant. In short, it's not ideal timing for Shelly Berkley. She's senate caliber but the gap between Heller as an opponent and Reid's 2010 draw of Sharron Angle couldn't be more cavernous.

[UrbScotty]

7. Yeah but two things:

1. Heller, with all his statewide name recognition, is below 50%. That's a big deal.

2. Berkley will be a lot stronger than Reid, IMO.