Intrade--remember them?

[Bicoastal]

If not, you probably should look em up. They were better (and faster) than any poll in 2008, a real-time market indicator of (monetary-based) confidence in the probability of real-word outcomes. As has often been stated, people are far less likely to let their biases get in the way when they have a chance of losing money. (The morning of the election, the Obama market was flying high at 85%.)

Obama's re-election has been hovering around 58% or so recently--a number considerably higher than his poll numbers would have you think. President-elect Romney is the second highest at--get this--12%. And President The Donald? A lean 5.5%, behind Palenty.

But I don't really care about any of these margins per se, and neither should you--Obama's way out in front because he doesn't have a front-running opponent yet, and I'm sure things will change after the GOP primary is over. I just wanted to see what has been happening since this morning's events.

Actually, nothing too dramatic. But for what it's worth Obama's gone up to 59.5% (although perhaps that's also because Bernake's speech about the economy continuing to improve gave confidence to the market watchers.) And Trump has gone down to 5.2%. Nothing huge--but it proves my contention that Donald Trump has not a shot in hell of winning the nomination.

It also suggests that Obama's bold move today only helped him and hurt Trump, if it did anything at all.

[Tarheel_Dem]

1. Thanks for the reminder. Needless to say, it's going to be interesting to watch.

I still don't think Donald believes any of the shit he's spouting. "The Donald" is a showman, and this is about raising his profile, and yanking NBC's chain in contract negotiations. I hope they dump his ass.

[TheWraith]

2. Honestly, I think 58% is excessively low.

I don't see the GOP having ANYONE who can seriously challenge Obama.

[nomb]

4. not sure, but I think 58% of the pop. vote is a huge landslide for a prez election....

[Nye Bevan]

5. No, it's not saying he'll get 58% of the popular vote.

The 58 means that you can bet $58 today and if Obama wins reelection you will get paid $100. (In any other scenario you will lose the $58). In other words, there is a 58% probability that Obama will win reelection.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Excellent barometer of theoretical odds at a point in time

Political wagering was far more juicy prior to Intrade, bargains galore. Sites put up fixed odds that were often way off, more in tune with media overreaction. It was the equivalent of betting against a house oddsmaker instead of wisdom of the crowds.

In short, I'm glad I got in early. My mathematical systems in the late mid '90s through early '00s weren't nearly as sophisticated as others use today, but they didn't need to be. I may have been 3% off but the line was 20% off.

Anyway, an incumbent with 50ish approval is going to be a favorite at this point. And even if his approval were 20% or 80% the odds wouldn't be extremely tilted. It might be 30/70 or 70/30 but probably closer to 35s and 65s. This far removed there has to be significant play in the number, with so many variables in play.