800 tornados in April

[Recursion]

The average is 160.

I'll say it: that's not noise. That's a warmer climate.

[niyad]

1. and there are still 3 days left.

[MineralMan]

2. That sure could be. Tornadoes and the storms that feed them

depend on heat. It may just be that a small increase could produce very large results.

[Frustratedlady]

15. I read an article yesterday that it was the rise in temps of water in the Gulf of Mexico

I don't recall where I saw it, but you might be able to Google it.

[MineralMan]

20. I saw that, too. Here on DU, I'm sure.

[Le Taz Hot]

3. I can't imagine living anywhere

in which me, my family and my house could blow away at any time. I don't know how you guys do it. I would be living in fear, make that terror, 24/7.

[Recursion]

4. I saw some as a kid in Mississippi; never a season like this

We were on red clay so we didn't have a basement; you just go to your bathroom and hold on to the toilet (it won't blow away).

It does have a kind of "wrath of God" aspect to it; a hurricane you can see coming for days and pretty much hits everything equally. A tornado makes a freakishly precise path (one house literally gone, the neighboring house pretty much untouched).

[guitar man]

21. You get used to it

I've lived in Oklahoma most all my life, tornadoes sprout like weeds here every spring. I've been "up close and personal" with a few of them over the years. They are tragic but somehow fascinating at the same time...

[Recursion]

28. They "seem" alive, but alien

For some reason the walkers in War of the Worlds always reminded me of tornados.

[guitar man]

34. something like that

Alive but with no feelings, it can't be bargained or reasoned with. It's coming, it's going to do what it does and all you can do is take shelter or get out of the way.

This may sound odd, but after all these years living here, I can step outside, listen for a minute and smell the air and tell you if there is a tornado in the area.

[Arkansas Granny]

30. I have lived in "Tornado Alley" all my life. Most of the time, you have enough warning

to get to a shelter of some kind.

I think you just get used to the risk and you learn what to do to protect yourself, much like those who live in areas prone to earthquakes. I can't imagine living anywhere that my house could suddenly start shaking and fall on me without warning.

[bighart]

5. Where did you get number 800 from?

[Recursion]

6. Various papers have pulled it from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center

eg, http://www.citizen-times.com/article/20110428/NEWS/110428014/April-could-record-month-tornadoes and http://gothamist.com/2011/04/28/video_terrifying_tornado_in_alabama.php

SPC's page is here http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

but I haven't yet gone through it to confirm the papers' data.

[bighart]

9. 800 is the number of reports of tornadoes, not the number of confirmed tornadoes

I know it's nit picky but several of these reports would be for the same storm.
From what I read at your link they think the actual number of verified tornadoes will be north of 550.

[Recursion]

17. Ah, thanks, that's a big difference (nt)

[ehrnst]

22. I'm seeing 846 in the tornado totals column on this page

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2011_annual_summary.html

[bighart]

23. notice the page is called

"tornado reports", not confirmed storms.

[Recursion]

26. And it's YTD, not April

Gotta love doing the press's job for them...

[Recursion]

25. Ah, and that's year to date

OK, this isn't looking to be as incredibly out of line out as I had thought at first.

[subterranean]

7. Also La Nina.

Historically, La Nina years have coincided with large tornado outbreaks.

http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/04/24/la-nina-and-tornado-outbreaks-in-the-usa/

[Recursion]

8. 3 sigmas over the mean? (nt)

[Cetacea]

38. Don't forget the Santa Maria

Historically, no one over the age age of fifty ever recalls hearing anything about La nina until after the climate began to noticeably change in the early 1980s.

[marmar]

10. And doesn't the season typically peak in late May?

This could get much uglier.

[Zebedeo]

11. So . . .

when people point out that it is a cold Winter, and cite it as evidence against the global warming theory, global warmers hasten to point out that "weather" and "climate" are not the same thing. But when a weather event happens like this, it is a sign of a warmer "climate" and not "weather"?

[Recursion]

13. Winters haven't particularly been colder, just snowier

Which would be predicted from a warmer temperature. But, yes, specific predictions of chaotic systems are silly, and weather was the paradigmatic example of that IIRC.

But, this is a whole lot of sigmas.

[CJCRANE]

16. A warmer global climate will cause more extremes and variations

in weather patterns, sometimes colder, sometimes warmer than we're used to.

[Zebedeo]

32. Well isn't that convenient

So ANYTHING that happens can be cited as confirmation of "global warming." I don't think that is how science works. I think that a theory has to be testable and FALSIFIABLE. What would falsify the global warming theory? IIRC, global warmers predicted that warming would result in dramatically lower snowfall amounts, so much so that snowfalls are now just a thing of the past

According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event." "Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.

When Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit the U.S. in 2005, causing well over $100 billion in losses, they were cited as conclusive proof of global warming, and predictions quickly followed of greatly increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes that would cause untold billions in damage to the U.S. in the coming years. Yet in 2006, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Atlantic_hurricane_season">NOT A SINGLE HURRICANE made landfall in the U.S. It was the first year since 1994 that no tropical cyclones formed in October.

In 2007, only one hurricane, Humberto, made landfall in the U.S. Its top windspeeds were 85 to 90 mph, and it caused only $50 million in damage.

And so on.

If you wish to raise the objection that I am referring only to hurricanes making landfall in the United States, I would point out that it was Katrina and Rita making landfall in the U.S. that resulted in predictions of further catastrophes in the U.S. Furthermore, if you wish to broaden the inquiry to a world-wide question, you will find that there has beenno trend in global hurricane activity from 1965 to 2008. The authors of a comprehensive study in 2010 concluded that "the global storm days do not show any trend over the past 44 years."

So, the same global warmers who predicted an end to snowfall, warmer winters and a great increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes now say that the great INCREASE in snowfall, the record COLD winters and the LOW frequency and intensity of hurricanes is ALSO evidence of global warming.

Please state what would falsify the global warming theory. If there is nothing that would falsify it, can you really call it a scientific theory? Or at that point is it just a matter of faith?

[texshelters]

37. Yes, more investigation is needed, but

more tornadoes is one possible result of global warming, is it not?

Peace,
Tex Shelters

[CJCRANE]

41. When complex systems break down

all bets are off.

Were the effects of Chernobyl or Fukushima accurately predicted? I don't think so. That doesn't mean there were no effects.

I don't know the exact ins and outs of what was predicted where and when but even if specific predictions are wrong doesn't mean that there is no climate change. It isn't something that can be convincingly argued either way on a message board except between two expert statisticians.

[ehrnst]

24. Global climate warming can cause weather extremes - like blizzards and tornadoes.

Warming leads to more moisture in the air, which leads to more snow. Or the Jet stream dipping lower and bringing odd weather patterns to places where (like snow in the south).

Global Warming doesn't make the weather warmer everywhere - it heats the ocean, which alters weather patterns.

And there are other, non-climate change issues involved in specific record weather patterns - la nina, el nino, etc.

[Zebedeo]

35. So no matter what happens, it's global warming!

How convenient. See my response #32 in this thread.

[texshelters]

40. It's a possible indicator

of the effects of global warming and more study is needed. More time is also needed.

Peace,
Tex Shelters

[Chris_Texas]

12. No. It's called WEATHER

[ehrnst]

14. No... It's the END times. The Rapture is near. That's the only logical explanation!

:sarcasm:

[fencesitter]

Well, May 21st is the day, you know..

I saw a guy who had parked his car near a busy intersection here in SW Pennsylvania. He was standing there holding up a big sign.. the end is May 21st.

[Pacifist Patriot]

19. Hopefully at the end of the date.

I've got big plans that day.

[ehrnst]

27. I have to wonder why these people are still worried about abortion

When all pregnancies are going to end anyway on May 21?

[Pacifist Patriot]

29. Fair point

And if not May 21 than surely on December 21, 2012.

[Pacifist Patriot]

18. Not necessarily. 1974 was a doozy of a year for tornadoes.

as was 1998.

From what I understand from a friend of mine who works at the NWS, the number of tornadoes is not really increasing. More are being detected and reported as instruments improve and amateur storm chasers have entered the hunt.

These freaky intense periods just happen from time to time. Anecdotal evidence exists from the 19th century that this happened then as well.

Hard to pin this one on climate change. Only time will tell.

[guitar man]

31. Yes indeed

I remember June 8, 1974 like it was yesterday. I was 10 years old living on a farm in central Oklahoma and from our hilltop we could see tornadoes everywhere. One went over the house and tore the top out of our big elm tree. It was a surreal and scary day :scared:

[Whisp]

33. omg. *faints

[texshelters]

36. You are 100% correct

and I bet the far right and wondering why God hates Mississippi, Alabama, and the other states hit by the tornadoes as they thrash about trying to shield themselves from reality.

Peace,
Tex Shelters

[RedCloud]

39. Things go better with Koch air pollution.

[upi402]

42. Koyaanisqatsi

cue the Philip Glass music