Canada: NDP still Neck and neck nationally with Conservatives

[RandySF]

OTTAWA—Jack Layton continues to surge in popularity among voters, giving his New Democrats vital momentum going into Monday’s election, largely at the expense of the Liberals, a new poll reveals.

The NDP are at 33 per cent support nationwide, up three percentage points in recent days and just four points back from the Conservatives who are at 37 per cent, up two, according to the latest Angus Reid poll done in partnership with the Toronto Star and La Presse.

The Liberals have dropped by three percentage points this week to 19 per cent. That’s where the NDP stood at the start of the campaign, illustrating the stunning turn in fortunes for both parties. The Green Party is up one percentage point to 4 per cent.

The growth of the NDP’s popularity has shown little signs of ebbing, Mukerji said......

The Conservatives have stretched their lead in Ontario, where the party must make gains if Stephen Harper is to achieve his goal of winning a majority. The Tories are at 41 per cent, with the NDP at 27 per cent, the Liberals at 26 per cent and the Greens at 5 per cent.

But the real success story for the NDP is in Quebec, where Layton’s party enjoys the backing of 45 per cent of voters. Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Québécois have slipped to 26 per cent, the Liberals are at 16 per cent and Conservatives at 13 per cent.


http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/983246--ndp-support-continues-to-climb-poll-shows?bn=1

[OnlinePoker]

1. Aside from a couple of funny attack ads...

...the NDP has run a mostly positive campaign. Many of the ads show Layton in front of a Canadian flag (not so subtle play for the patriotic vote) and they say what the party plans to do. The Conservatives and Liberals, on the other hand have run nothing but attack ads. Even when they are trying to put their policies forward they still put digs in on the other parties and leaders. The NDP has been smart and, if they don't form the actual government, will finally get a shot as official opposition.

[Pab Sungenis]

2. But it's not translating into seats!

The divided left is still giving the Fascists (not Tories, that party no longer exists) control. The best numbers I'm seeing today still give Harper 127 seats, and the NDP less than the Grits.

Does anyone have more recent polling which suggests otherwise? I don't like Jack Layton but would rather see him than either Iggy or Harper as PM.

[Armstead]

3. A really dumb question

I know how the parliamentary system works in theory, but not so much about how the politics of it work in Canada.

If the NDP were to make a really strong showing, but not win a majority, at the expense of the Liberals, would the two parties still be in a position to form a coalition to beat back the Conservatives? And if so, would they be willing to?

Or does it lock the Conservatives into power?

Okay, that was more than one dumb question.

[OnlinePoker]

4. Not dumb at all

Say the Conservatives have a minority of seats but have a higher number than either the NDP or Liberals. In this case, the Conservatives will form the government as a minority which has happened after the last 3 elections. If they don't have a large minority (close to 50% of seats) and their government falls due to a vote of no-confidence, the Governor General, as our head of state, has the option to ask the next higher party by seats to attempt to form a coalition. In this case, it would be more natural for the NDP and Liberals, both left of center parties, to form a government than the Conservatives/NDP, and if they can work together, they can do a lot of good things. Whichever leader of these parties has the highest seat count would be the Prime Minister.