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Bernardo de La Paz

Profile Information

Member since: Fri Jul 16, 2004, 11:36 PM
Number of posts: 44,632

About Me

Canadian who lived for many years in Northern California and left a bit of my heart there. (note to self) https: //images.dailykos.com/images/1043361/original/2016.09.19_sunflowers_header.jpg . https://i.imgur.com/1VKgdmc.jpeg

Journal Archives

Exactly. Garland knows details, knows the rump is guilty, but had to formalize it to distance it

This is my speculation, of course I don't read minds or remote view documents and computer screens in offices.

1) Smith took over long-running complex investigations. Fact.

2) Smith is no nonsense kinda guy. Fact.

3) Garland was pipped by (McConnell and) the rump who appointed three judges to Garland's rightful seat. Fact. Thus Garland is forced to add a layer between him and indictment. Garland must still decline to veto an indictment recommendation from Smith, but will simply rubber-stamp it, correctly. This will lower the temperature a little bit (not much) and we can all use the cumulative effect of many efforts to lower the temperature a little bit.

4) I'm sorry. All this manouevring is necessary for success and takes time.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Sat Mar 18, 2023, 08:05 AM (0 replies)

Keeping Jan 6 living rent free in voters minds is not a win for Republicon Party.

It's a win for RepubliQon primary candidates.

The set of people who believe Jan 6 was just a protest and not an insurrection has hit its peak. History, and even short term history is not kind to masterminds, criminals, followers and dupes. Hmm, odd to think of the rump as a mastermind, but given the nature of his minions, he is in the running for the brightest of the bunch. As to his followers and dupes: those two groups are one and the same.

Time will not gain him any more of the above. And he will quickly lose many or most of the Republicons who have sold their souls for a little money and a little power, as they search for alternatives.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Fri Mar 10, 2023, 07:56 PM (0 replies)

Wonderful cartoon dramatizes exact issue: where to draw line? 100 pc prevention is impossible

It is impossible to prevent all rail accidents for all time.

Which is why we have politics. Yes.

Politics is the mechanism for mediating this kind of line drawing. How much is the public benefit worth to the public as a whole? A lot, for sure, but not infinite.

But politics takes many forms. Robber Baron Capitalism is a very bad way of using politics. Hence regulations, etc.

Democracy is way more effective. But the Robber Barons get upset. And then they use their power to squelch democracy.

It's a problem.

It's a bigger problem when the stupid are exploited. As in, vote to cut regulations and taxes on the Robber Barons so they can put everyone at higher risk so they can get more baronial.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Thu Mar 9, 2023, 11:45 AM (0 replies)

The AI revolution is over-rated and under-rated at the same time

Advancements like AI go in waves. The writer is surfing a wave of over-rating AI, but is helping wake people up about AI and the people need waking.

1) There have been waves of AI before. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter

2) AI is a very real human capability, by which I mean it is within our grasp. But it is not a thing which arrives or has not arrives. AI capability and AI deployment come in degrees, levels, etc.

3) Since about 2000, long term research threads began to bear fruit as artificial neural networks (ANNs or NNs) became more possible with advanced computing hardware and cheapness of generally available hardware.

4) In the 2000s, large "tech" companies (meaning web companies) began adopting and integrating NNs in massive ways. The emergence of Big Data. It was the business model of Google, Facebook, and the rest: your data. Their joint agreements mean they all share data since the ToAs of them all say that you consent to sharing of data with joint venture partners.

5) The advancements of AI currently are stunning. No question. That is a big part of why I say it is "under-rated".

6) The advancements of AI currently are flawed. That's why I say it is "over-rated". The article is a bit glib and too ready to predict a calamitous swift revolution. It will be swift enough to amaze us, but it will go in fits and starts.

7) Flaws are hard to root out. But they will be. It will take time. This is why I think that the AI industry will head into a bit of a winter before long.

More on this point: Sure, an AI can write a bit of code, like implementing known algorithms in toy applications. But to write a complete working 20,000 line program involves designing and writing code when the problem is not well defined and gets defined by writing working code that fails to satisfy users then modifying it in steps until it does.

If you can't define it precisely, then the AI can fake it, but not make it.

So what will happen is that there will be AIs that facilitate interaction with AIs. Software will be developed in conjunction with engineers and programmers, but their mode of interaction will be higher level than it is now.

Developing the software for those interactions will take time. Hence AI is over-rated. But AI will assist that development. All up and down the line AI will be accelerating those developments and at some point in the future it will seem like the "next wave" has suddenly arrived. Hence AI is under-rated.

This will happen across all the fields. AI integration will take time but will be amazing.

Take artwork for example. You can pick an artist known for a fairly consistent style and ask the AI to make a picture of something similar to their themes in their style, and the result will seem perfect at first look. But after a bit we notice flaws like a car poking through a window. This will all be ironed out, but it takes time.

The graphic artist of the future will do some "painting", but a lot of their work will be interacting with an AI. When they tell the AI "looks like a car poking through the window and that's nonsense", the AI will correct it and there will be back and forth.

So. Advancement was ever thus, in all spheres of human endeavor.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Thu Mar 9, 2023, 08:07 AM (1 replies)

Keep posting, if it helps. As to internal dialogue,

... if you write about it (to us or to a diary), it might help. It might not be cathartic, but it might help. Catharsis can come in little bits and pieces if it is a stream, steady or otherwise.

Aside from treatments (medication, talk therapy), I don't know how that internal dialogue goes for you, but give this a try.

Stop fighting it. Not giving in, but going around.

Easy for me to say, difficult for anyone in your situation to do. What I suggest is that when life really gets you down, and something inside tells you something negative, say to yourself "Oh, you again. Yeah, life is tough." And then take you focus back to what you are doing. If you aren't doing something and aren't distracting yourself with something like video or games, etc., try writing.

Try writing about your feelings, not to wallow in them, but to acknowledge them and to really really enforce the idea that they are only feelings, however sincerely felt, and I do not doubt they are sincerely felt.

I think your sense of duty is a good anchor for you. Your duty to your wife is not only commendable, but healthy. You may feel duties to other causes. Don't let them rule you, but they can steady you. They are something you can focus on, not because you have to, but because you have chosen to.

As to anxiety, meditation is helpful, as has been measured by studies. You can even do meditation in daily activities. As you are cleaning up something, focus on the task. "Okay, got that bit, here's another, needs scrubbing, where's the scrubber, okay, gonna hafta rub hard, harder, got it, where's the water, ....". In classical meditation, people are often suggested to focus on their breath. Feel it come in, feel it held briefly, feel it exhaled, feel the brief pause, repeat cycles.

You can take a 30 second pause at times, and simply focus on five breath cycles, nothing else. A grounding pause.

When negatives or depressed thoughts come up as you are doing something, acknowledge them briefly, and then move your focus back. The thing is that if you try to fight negative thoughts, it makes them stronger. Go around them.

It doesn't hurt to from time to time remind yourself of your goodness and the goodness in the world. You are a good partner. The world still has much tremendous beauty. There are many good people helping others and themselves and nature. It is a truth, not glibness. Don't so much focus on the goodness, but keep it in your back pocket. Use it not to fight the bad wolf, but to balance yourself from time to time. "Yeah, it's bad now, but there is good, so I carry on."

It does get better. Accumulated age accumulates experience which generates bits of wisdom which help balance.

Feed the good wolf. Starve the bad one without pretending it is not there.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Wed Mar 8, 2023, 07:10 AM (1 replies)

If he's the nominee, they'll be behind him 110 percent

And I think he will be, to the Republicans everlasting regret.

De Santis would be foolish to run in 2024. He is young enough and is sitting pretty for 2028 if he lets the rump self-immolate in Nov 2024. He has written a book and is on a speaking tour for the future, but also he's preparing now just in case something happens in the next 12 months (likely) and the rump withdraws (unlikely).

The rump will likely face a field of also-rans. Nobody mooted about (Haley declared, Pompeo, Pence, Cruz, etc) has enough of a base to overcome the rump. The more who get in the race fracture the rump's opposition. Hence I think he will be their nominee.

I think the rump will get fewer general election votes than he did in 2016 and not enough Electoral College votes to become 47th. Even if there is no indictment. I think the rump will be indicted in 2023 and there does not have to be a trial in 2024 for indictment to be a proverbial bombshell and for it to be a big drag on his campaign. It won't budge the 30% Rs who are "to the death" rump lickers, but it will sway some leaners to vote D or to stay home.

I expect the Grand Old Party to fracture. Alternatively there is also a high likelihood it would wither away as decent people (mostly decent) abandon it. But I think fracture is more likely. I think the rump will run in 2028 as a third party candidate, unless he is convicted, which I think has a high likelihood.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Mon Mar 6, 2023, 12:55 PM (1 replies)

Trudeau gave the rump a picture of his grandfather's Brothel he ran during the Yukon gold rush

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Sun Mar 5, 2023, 03:12 PM (1 replies)

There are dimensions of Stupid such as Wisdom and Clever

The Wisdom dimension is distinct from Clever. Other dimensions include Knowledge (memory and exposure to topics) and Emotional Intelligence.

The rump is clever about media and other people's money, but completely unwise about nationhood ("why do soldiers do it? What's in it for them?" ).

The rump is a salesperson and a con artist, so he has emotional intelligence, but he has little knowledge (drinking bleach for Covid, looking at sun in eclipse).

They are distinct. It is possible and desirable to be clever, wise, knowledgeable and emotionally perceptive at the same time. A person can know a lot but not know what to do with the knowledge, like say sports stats, history, and arcana.

Many people are wise (thankfully) though not especially clever or knowledgeable. These are the people who work hard, sometimes very hard, and support other people the very best they can whenever they can. They are generally tolerant and generally make wise votes. They are the salt of the earth and we are lucky to have them.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Fri Mar 3, 2023, 07:22 AM (1 replies)

Polarization works because Stupid not educated in critical thinking and civics: you got that right

Critical Thinking: They have so little self-awareness that they are unaware how easily and frequently they are swayed by emotion and emotional framing. They fall prey to logical fallacies of all kinds and variations. They gish-gallop when debating ( "owning the libs" ).

Civics: Yes, they might be able to tell you why they hate the Amendment for electing Senators and other details of this or that in US political governance.

But they can't explain the basic fundamental reason for Peaceful Transfer of Power (no J6s) in the UNITED States of America.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Fri Mar 3, 2023, 07:06 AM (0 replies)

Grains and sugar are good for you, just not to excess.

Grains have lots of fiber.
Whole grains have lots of nutrients.
Ground flax seed has Omega-3.

Sugar is brain fuel. But don't binge or regularly overdo processed sugars, like white sugar or high fructose corn syrup, etc.

I put brown sugar on my oatmeal and a bunch in the 600 ml cup of black coffee I have in the morning. Then I don't put sugar on anything else all day, certainly not in the green tea I have in the afternoon. I don't drink soda (I used to drink a lot of Coca Cola).

The problem is not sugar so much, but how people use excess sugar and processed IN PLACE OF NUTRIENTS. Then the body cries out for nutrients and the person mistakes it for "hunger" and eats more processed food. But that doesn't have much nutrients either, so the cycle repeats.

If you eat healthy food, you can just about eat as much as you want and you will be satisfied sooner with fewer calories.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Thu Mar 2, 2023, 06:49 PM (3 replies)
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