Trump Never Won College-Educated White Voters

[DonViejo]

March 9, 2018 at 10:49 am EST By Taegan Goddard

Nate Cohn: “After Donald J. Trump’s upset victory in the 2016 presidential election, one data point from the network exit polls jumped out at analysts: his two-point win among college-educated white voters. Many pre-election polls had suggested they would favor Hillary Clinton. And now, more than a year later, polls again show Mr. Trump with striking weakness among well-educated white voters, implying he has alienated many who backed him in 2016. But it is increasingly clear that there’s another explanation: The exit polls were wrong.”


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https://politicalwire.com/2018/03/09/trump-never-won-college-educated-white-voters/

[Eliot Rosewater]

1. He didnt win jack, votes were flipped by on the ground russian agents in key states

using a variety of methods, some having to do with counting after the fact and other ways.

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. THIS.

[pandr32]

3. Yep!

In agreement with you and I think the post is an indicator--not an example of how the exit polls got it wrong. Why would this particular group lie?

[brush]

4. I hope that's the case, also that white women who voted for trump will come around...

now that it's evident he's a chaotic embarrassment to the country.

[Eliot Rosewater]

5. The people who cant ever change are the ones who HATE it when women have sex

without their permission, i.e. abortion.

Nobody else has an excuse.



BTW, when I claim Russians interfered in election, stole election, watch out for people who push back on that...and read my sig

[brush]

7. If someone pushes back on that they've either been under a rock or they have an agenda.

[bearsfootball516]

6. I've heard this claim before.

But I've never actually seen any evidence to back it up.

That's what differentiates us from the Republicans. They make wild accusations with no way to back it up. We use facts and research to prove our claims.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Read the New York Times article

The problem is exit poll weighting in general. That college-educated white category is flawed primarily because other demographics are wildly misrepresented. The net, according to Pew research, is actually an exit poll underreporting of Republicans, specifically white non-college educated voters. The headline is a very poor summary of the actual issue:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/upshot/trump-losing-college-educated-whites-he-never-won-them-in-the-first-place.html

"This winds up biasing the rest of the survey because the exit polls are weighted to match the actual result of a far less educated country. In general, the exit polls underestimate Republican support, probably in no small part because they overrepresent young, nonwhite and well-educated voters. But this process leaves the underlying educational bias of the sample intact, and the result is that Republican-leaning voters are given more weight to compensate for an electorate that represents Democratic-leaning voting groups.

In the end, the exit poll overestimates Republican support among most demographic groups, including well-educated white voters, and it overestimates the number of voters from Democratic-leaning voting blocs, like young, nonwhite and well-educated voters.

Those two facts go a long way toward explaining why there were so many Democratic-friendly analyses of voting demographics and polls over the last decade. The exit polling made it seem as if the Republicans, in a diversifying country, could not win with big gains among older, white working-class voters."