E.J. Dionne - Obama's best bet: Fear, not Hope

[Scuba]

http://nationalmemo.com/content/obama-can-messiah-win-twice


..snip..

Barack Obama was unlike any candidate the country had seen before. More than a mere politician, he became a cultural icon, "the biggest celebrity in the world," as a John McCain ad accurately if mischievously described him. He was the object of near adoration among the young, launching what often felt like a religious revival. Artists poured out musical compositions devoted to his victory in a rich variety of forms, from reggae and hip-hop to the Celtic folk song. (My personal favorite: "There's no one as Irish as Barack O'Bama.&quot Electoral contests rarely hold out the possibility of making all things new, but Obama's supporters in large numbers fervently believed that 2008 was exactly such a campaign.

...

Most Americans still believe that Obama inherited rather than caused the economic turmoil. Barring another crisis in Europe, there is a decent chance of somewhat better times by Election Day. Obama's fall offensive against Republicans in Congress has paid dividends. Voters seem inclined to blame Washington's dysfunction on the GOP, not on a president they still rather like. Most also think Obama's foreign policy has put the nation on a steadier course. To the extent that bellicosity from the Republicans -- notably from Mitt Romney -- portends a return to George W. Bush's foreign policy, Obama will enjoy an advantage. Ron Paul's strength in Iowa and New Hampshire suggests that there are even Republicans who are exhausted with foreign military adventures.

For all these reasons, Democrats are far more bullish on the president's re-election chances than they were even a few months ago, and for what it's worth, I put the odds in his favor. Yet the threat that should most concern Obama may not be any of the particulars that usually decide elections but the inevitable clash between the extravagant hopes of 2008 and the messy reality of 2012.
In traveling around Iowa and New Hampshire over the last few weeks, I have been struck by the number of Democrats and independents who still more or less want Obama to win and deeply fear the consequences of a government dominated by Republicans. But having made this clear, they then bring up the ways in which they cannot summon the emotions on Obama's behalf this year that they felt the first time around.

Some point to disappointment over his failure to confront the Republicans early enough and hard enough. How, they ask, could Obama possibly have expected cooperation from conservatives? Others are frustrated that he couldn't bring Washington together, as he said he would. Still others point to real Obama achievements, including the stimulus and especially the health care law, and ask why he was unable to sell their merits to a majority of the electorate. And then there are those who wonder why the malefactors of finance have faced so little accountability.

..end..




Note from Scuba: please don't shoot the messenger. I didn't write the title; that's the title listed in the email I get from The National Memo teasing me to link to their articles. That said, the heady days of January, 2009 seem a distant memory and fear of Republican policy seems to be the main driver of our political will.

[Autumn]

1. All any Democrat has to do is to

watch one debate between the fucking nuts and they will vote for Obama no matter how they feel about him. It worked for me.