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RandySF

(58,798 posts) Tue Mar 13, 2018, 08:55 PM Mar 2018

A big tweet from the NYT's Nate Cohn

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4 replies

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A big tweet from the NYT's Nate Cohn (Original Post) RandySF Mar 2018 OP

Oh please, oh please! mcar Mar 2018 #1

interesting that *this* prediction is turning out to be so accurate, yet renate Mar 2018 #2

House districts are very difficult to poll Awsi Dooger Mar 2018 #3

50-50 is within the polling margin of error Spider Jerusalem Mar 2018 #4

mcar

(42,307 posts)

1. Oh please, oh please!

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 09:19 PM

Mar 2018

renate

(13,776 posts)

2. interesting that *this* prediction is turning out to be so accurate, yet

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 10:06 PM

Mar 2018

...the race is 50-50, which is not what was being predicted.

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

3. House districts are very difficult to poll

Reply to renate (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 10:09 PM

Mar 2018

That's why betting odds on them are seldom if ever offered. I've wagered on politics since 1992 and seen odds on House districts only a handful of times.

I'm concerned about the projection of 229,000 votes. CNN is showing only 206,000 in the tally right now. I was hoping far fewer votes would be outstanding, given the trend toward Saccone.

Spider Jerusalem

(21,786 posts)

4. 50-50 is within the polling margin of error

Reply to renate (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 10:12 PM

Mar 2018

you have to take that "+/-3% into account, not just the topline numbers.

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