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wasupaloopa

(4,516 posts) Tue Mar 13, 2018, 11:10 PM Mar 2018

0

3000 absentee in red counties left no blue counties absentees left

17 replies

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3000 absentee in red counties left no blue counties absentees left (Original Post) wasupaloopa Mar 2018 OP

Source? nt Lucky Luciano Mar 2018 #1

Steve on MSNBC wasupaloopa Mar 2018 #2

The big jump in Conor's lead was when the Alegheny absentees came in. femmedem Mar 2018 #9

Saccone still needs to win close to 65 percent of the absentees bottomofthehill Mar 2018 #3

Those are Trump numbers, and Saccone is doing 20 points worse than Trump... sweetloukillbot Mar 2018 #12

3000 absentees would need to break almost 2-1 for Saccone to even tie. sweetloukillbot Mar 2018 #4

So what does that mean Iwasthere Mar 2018 #5

I did the math +384 pimpbot Mar 2018 #6

by my math it's +206 for Lamb. CNN said 3,206 absentees left and Lamb currently has 847 vote lead. ecstatic Mar 2018 #13

Kornacki on MSNBC DeminPennswoods Mar 2018 #7

You math is fuzzy. nt LexVegas Mar 2018 #11

Of course it's fuzzy. Igel Mar 2018 #14

Your prediction is bullshit. The math is ridiculously incorrect. nt LexVegas Mar 2018 #15

and it would be fuzzier for me if I was drinking, but I gave up alcohol for lent..... a kennedy Mar 2018 #16

LOL, my bad, forgot to subtract out Lamb's share. DeminPennswoods Mar 2018 #17

If those absentee ballots fall in the same percentages... LAS14 Mar 2018 #8

Yes but... redwitch Mar 2018 #10

Lucky Luciano

(11,254 posts)

1. Source? nt

Reply to wasupaloopa (Original post)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 11:13 PM

Mar 2018

wasupaloopa

(4,516 posts)

2. Steve on MSNBC

Reply to Lucky Luciano (Reply #1)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 11:14 PM

Mar 2018

femmedem

(8,201 posts)

9. The big jump in Conor's lead was when the Alegheny absentees came in.

Reply to Lucky Luciano (Reply #1)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 11:16 PM

Mar 2018

The remaining two precincts and the remaining absentees all lean R. No source on that, except it's all over twitter with screen shots.

bottomofthehill

(8,329 posts)

3. Saccone still needs to win close to 65 percent of the absentees

Reply to wasupaloopa (Original post)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 11:14 PM

Mar 2018

sweetloukillbot

(11,010 posts)

12. Those are Trump numbers, and Saccone is doing 20 points worse than Trump...

Reply to bottomofthehill (Reply #3)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 11:17 PM

Mar 2018

sweetloukillbot

(11,010 posts)

4. 3000 absentees would need to break almost 2-1 for Saccone to even tie.

Reply to wasupaloopa (Original post)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 11:14 PM

Mar 2018

That seems a tall order

Iwasthere

(3,159 posts)

5. So what does that mean

Reply to wasupaloopa (Original post)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 11:15 PM

Mar 2018

They will need 80% of remaining ? To overcome Lamb's lead?

pimpbot

(940 posts)

6. I did the math +384

Reply to wasupaloopa (Original post)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 11:16 PM

Mar 2018

If the absentee percentages follow the current trends, it would be +384 for Saccone, meaning Lamb up by 463.

HOWEVER! There are still two precincts left in Westmoreland to report. They are busy finding ~400 extra votes right now.

ecstatic

(32,701 posts)

13. by my math it's +206 for Lamb. CNN said 3,206 absentees left and Lamb currently has 847 vote lead.

Reply to pimpbot (Reply #6)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 11:17 PM

Mar 2018

Even if Saccone gets 60% of the 3206 absentee ballots, he still loses by around 200 votes.

DeminPennswoods

(15,286 posts)

7. Kornacki on MSNBC

Reply to wasupaloopa (Original post)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 11:16 PM

Mar 2018

Assuming these ballots break down like the live vote, looks like Saccone will end up pulling this out.
I figure +116 in Greene, +583 in Wash and +1026 in Westmoreland. That gives Saccone probably a 900 vote win.

ETA: Arithmetic not my strong suit.

LexVegas

(6,060 posts)

11. You math is fuzzy. nt

Reply to DeminPennswoods (Reply #7)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 11:17 PM

Mar 2018

Igel

(35,300 posts)

14. Of course it's fuzzy.

Reply to LexVegas (Reply #11)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 11:21 PM

Mar 2018

It's a prediction.

The only time predictions stop being fuzzy is when things are deterministic or after the fact.

LexVegas

(6,060 posts)

15. Your prediction is bullshit. The math is ridiculously incorrect. nt

Reply to Igel (Reply #14)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 11:23 PM

Mar 2018

a kennedy

(29,655 posts)

16. and it would be fuzzier for me if I was drinking, but I gave up alcohol for lent.....

Reply to Igel (Reply #14)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 11:25 PM

Mar 2018

DeminPennswoods

(15,286 posts)

17. LOL, my bad, forgot to subtract out Lamb's share.

Reply to LexVegas (Reply #11)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 11:25 PM

Mar 2018

That'd be Greene+84, Wash+66, Westmoreland+252, total +392, not enough.

LAS14

(13,783 posts)

8. If those absentee ballots fall in the same percentages...

Reply to wasupaloopa (Original post)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 11:16 PM

Mar 2018

... as today's votes, Lamb will win by 147 votes. Does anyone know what to expect from absentee ballots?

John King - CNN

redwitch

(14,944 posts)

10. Yes but...

Reply to wasupaloopa (Original post)

Tue Mar 13, 2018, 11:17 PM

Mar 2018

If Lamb takes say .38 of them that’s 1218 plus his current lead of 875=2093.
Saccone takes .62=1988.

I think. I suck at math!

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