Bless his heart...Split screen of Kornacke

[Laura PourMeADrink]

What in the world is he figuring??

MSNBC didn't even have the absentee numbers like CNN did long ago. That must be what he is doing - trying to invent those somehow.

It took 2 min to calculate ....based on live vote proportions. Saccone will gain 370 votes. Meaning Lamb will win by 477 (847-370). that is all you know (or can surmise) at this point - until absentees counted and the remaining two llve precincts in.

Ok - now the final live remaining in - Saccone only gained 169.

[lapfog_1]

1. my call of Lamb by 630 is looking good - n/t

[underpants]

2. Marking you again to follow up on Laura's math

I do math for a living too....okay it's spreadsheets

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. My best guess - upping Saccone's live vote margin by 1 % - Lamb by 160 votes

On edit, revising my guess from 259 to Lamb by 160

[Laura PourMeADrink]

3. is that a pure guess or did you calculate? what methodology.. they say absentees

historically track with live - and our good county already in.

[lapfog_1]

4. calculated

back a couple of hours ago when there were 9000 votes out... 6000 from red areas and 3000 from blue. And Kornaki gave us the trend (percentage for each candidate from both).

Of course, he didn't mention the absentee vote.

Lamb was ahead at that time by around 930 votes... I did some quick calculations based on percentages and came up with 630.

Not rocket science. Of course, rocket science is nowhere near as hard as aerodynamics... which is what I did for NASA for 10 years ( Computational Fluid Dynamics )

[Laura PourMeADrink]

7. If you are right - then it surpasses the .38 recount threshold right? I am guessing

Lamb by 259 (scratch that revising to 160 votes) (by upping the live vote proportions and the two Westmoreland counties)....which would trigger a recount...IF the repukes somehow go to court and win a ruling that the current legal recount verbiage that says "statewide" applies to a single county.

hope you are right lapfog !!! Either way he's gonna squeek it out !!!!!!!!

[lapfog_1]

11. I am not clear on the auto-recount rule

I've heard .5% of the total vote has to be the difference between the two vote leaders.

But then later I heard that was not accurate.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

12. Well - sure someone said .38 but maybe that was the margin at the time. Here's

what I found
The secretary of the commonwealth must order a recount if any of the following conditions are met:[4]

a candidate for statewide office was defeated by 0.5 percent or less of all votes cast for the office

THE CATCH IS THE WORD "STATEWIDE"

[lapfog_1]

13. yeah... so were there other special elections statewide

and how does that affect this special election?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

18. Damn you're good! I want to find the absentee

Ballot results...the must have really broke more toward Lamb in a higher proportion than the live votes!

Yeah.he won !

[spanone]

6. It's showbiz, baby!!!!!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

8. We are in Fat City !!!!!!!!!!!!!

[spanone]

10. Kornacki puts me in the nervous hospital....

his style is more suited to sports....imho

[Laura PourMeADrink]

15. he seems like a GREAT guy - sincere - whole nine yards - but he seems way too

scattered for even sports. He'd be describing a play and the game would be three plays behind

[ecstatic]

9. CNN stating Lamb is ahead by 579 with only 1398 more absentee ballots left

Even if Saccone gets 70% of the outstanding absentee ballots, he'll still lose by about 19 votes!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

14. Hmmm. I was going with 3206 absentee out. Must mean one of the three counties

have reported absentees. thought the only change from an hour ago was that the two remaining live precincts in Westmoreland came in.

All moot - surely he won !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[WiffenPoof]

16. I know what's going on...

... With Steve and his bearded assistant.

It's like that Seinfeld episode...

The assistant is saying... Ok Steve, I'm going to act like I'm talking to you. I'll use my hands to point at the big board. Steve interrupts and says yeah, and I'll act like I'm listening to you and I'll use my hands to show something expanding and point to my computer. The assistant says.. Right, then you take as drink from your bottle of water and I'll...

[Laura PourMeADrink]

17. funny ! I saw that. The assistant actually looked like he was yelling at him tho. nt