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MineralMan

(146,307 posts)
Thu Mar 15, 2018, 01:10 PM Mar 2018

Let me put it another way: Voters in PA overcame a 20% margin loss in 2016

to elect a Democratic Congressional Representative. That district was +20 for Trump in 2016. That should have been a lock for the Republican candidate. It was not. The Democrat won. If we can overcome a +20 margin in one district, we should be able to win a majority in the House easily.

That's why that election on Tuesday should give us all hope for wins in our own districts. Look at your own congressional district. If it elected a Republican, what was the margin? In most places, it was less than 20%. We can win. We should win. It all depends on turnout, so lets get busy on that for November.

GOTV!

5 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Let me put it another way: Voters in PA overcame a 20% margin loss in 2016 (Original Post) MineralMan Mar 2018 OP
Is it completely official? You know what my initial reaction was as to Eliot Rosewater Mar 2018 #1
Words for us to heed pandr32 Mar 2018 #2
It will be official. It's almost impossible that the MineralMan Mar 2018 #4
The lesson is also to run a candidate who fits the district Amishman Mar 2018 #3
That is always, and absolutely, true. MineralMan Mar 2018 #5

Eliot Rosewater

(31,111 posts)
1. Is it completely official? You know what my initial reaction was as to
Thu Mar 15, 2018, 01:12 PM
Mar 2018

the all too common disappearing lead that all of a sudden the DEMOCRAT loses, always the democrat for some weird reason.'

But I am moving on, we won.

Vote for ANY democrat ANYWHERE and especially vote in the PRIMARY for the candidate more likely to win in THAT district!

MineralMan

(146,307 posts)
4. It will be official. It's almost impossible that the
Thu Mar 15, 2018, 01:18 PM
Mar 2018

result will change. There are no paper ballots to count, except for a small number of absentee ballots. The district votes on touchscreen machines with no paper trail. The data have been counted. There's not much room for change.

Look back at Al Franken's first win. He actually lost in the initial count by a tiny margin, but won in the recount. Such recounts are rare. almost always, they result in confirmation of the original winner.

Amishman

(5,557 posts)
3. The lesson is also to run a candidate who fits the district
Thu Mar 15, 2018, 01:17 PM
Mar 2018

Conor Lamb supported the Trump tariffs as protectionist trade policies are viewed positively in the rust belt

Conor Lamb said we need better gun background checks but opposed new bans and restrictions

Conor Lamb said he has a personal moral objection to abortion but did does not want it made illegal

He is far from a paragon if DU's preferred values but this type if new 'blue dog' is what it takes to win in these districts. Even if he breaks ranks on some issues, it is better than a far right zealot.

MineralMan

(146,307 posts)
5. That is always, and absolutely, true.
Thu Mar 15, 2018, 01:23 PM
Mar 2018

No lesson is more important than that one. Unless a candidate is a good fit in any district, he or she will almost certainly lose if the race is tight.

Doug Jones and Conor Lamb make that abundantly clear. It is re-proven over and over again in every election year. Anyone who thinks that rule is stupid is just plain wrong.

Our elections are local. Our candidates must also be local. There must be a match if we are to win.

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