Important Points from PA 18

[louis c]

We have heard over and over again that Donald Trump won this district by 20 points. It was 19 and a fraction, but 20 is a close enough number to use. but, it wasn't such a great improvement over past Republican Presidential candidates. Romney, far from a darling of the working class, beat Barak Obama by around 17 points. And John McCain, with the country mired in the worst economic crisis since the great depression, and the Republicans getting all the blame, carries this same area by 15 points.

These numbers suggest to me that the fact that this part of Pennsylvania, which is 93% white and nestled in the Southwest border with Eastern Ohio and Northern West Virginia, hates Democrats. They are union workers, but from the mines and mills. That means they are mostly white men who were fucked during the trade deals of the late 80's and early to mid 90's. They have been let down. They long for jobs that won't ever come back, because of technology, and the few that do come back, won't be paying union wages.

They put their faith in politicians who let them down. Guess what? Donald Trump is another. He couldn't revive the coal and steel industries if he had a magic wand. He will never return this area, or any area of similar need, to the glory days of the 50's and 60's. Trump doesn't need a policy to "Make America Great Again", he needs a time machine, and even he can't afford one.

No, what these numbers on Tuesday mean, is Trump's lion's share of the main demographic in his limited coalition; white men from rural, rust belt states, is starting to shrivel. He still resonates with many of these (mostly) men and (fewer, but still supportive) women.

In districts that more represent America, like swing districts in suburban areas of big cities, Trump and the Republicans are fucked. They can't be losing white suburban women by 15 to 20 points, minorities by 60 to 70 points, and hope to win elections with 55% of rural whites. Those were the numbers in PA 18th. A narrow loss in a district that has affluent whites in the suburbs and classic Trump voters in the other 3 counties, and only 7% minorities is an indication that a disaster is around the corner for Republicans.

When you look out to sea and you see a Tsunami coming of this magnitude, you can't just try to avoid it or move to higher ground. No, if there's time, you have to evacuate. Expect more retirements of Republican Congressmen and women.

[mythology]

1. They weren't fucked by trade deals

They were fucked by automation and emerging cheaper and/or cleaner sources of energy. Trade deals explain very little of job losses.

[louis c]

3. Now, it's automation, in 1988-1994 it was trade deals

[CaliforniaPeggy]

2. A big, fat K&R!

[Amishman]

4. The lesson is match the candidate to the district

I said this in another thread but the biggest lesson is to run the right person with the right positions

Lamb opposed gun control other than background checks, supported the tariffs, and said he had a moral objection to abortion. Guns are very popular in PA, protectionist trade policies are liked in the rust belt, and abortion is still controversial in many conservative areas.

We have a resurrection of the Blue Dog, which is how these districts can be won.

[LBM20]

8. Absolutely. You gotta run the right candidate. Progressive on unions, healthcare, infrastructure,

jobs, education, etc. but more conservative on the social issues including supporting hunting because for these folks that means meat in the freezer. And be a good listener, a good empathyzer, and don't be afraid to talk tough, straight, and clear.

[DFW]

5. These people will hate to have it pointed out to them

But they are standing on the pier, watching a boat sail out to sea on which they thought life had guaranteed them reservations. Trump came along, and promised to make the boat return to shore and pick them up. We never promised that. They believed Trump. Common sense told them not to, but they believed him anyway. His scenario just sounded better. It was what they wanted to hear, and hear it they did.

But that boat is not coming back. Ever. So, now what? Will they blame that on us? Yes, some of them will. Why? Because it's easy and because it's convenient. If they blame us, then they don't have to admit that they fell for a rather obvious scam, and got played for fools. But some of them will not blame us. Some of them will blame the ones who took them for fools (maybe Lincoln was right after all).

We will have to prove that we are worthy of any pleas for them to come back to us, as they are our natural constituents--IF our elected reps pay attention to their situation. Take ANYBODY for granted, and you risk deserved resentment. That goes for Democrats as well as any other party. We forget that at our peril.

[Blue_true]

6. I really think that we can peel a lot of Surburban Whites from Trumps coalition,

while holding on to rural democrats. If you look at the "change" map for Tuesday, it is clear that Kamb won by running up a big margin in the mostly White near Pittsburg surburbs. Many whites in those areas rely on the new economy for their livelihoods, tech jobs, advanced banking and services, jobs in health care delivery and health care research, we can tailor a message to those people without sacrificing out democratic principles, I think they are amendable to that message when it is delivered impressively like Lamb delivered it.

[NCTraveler]

7. Well rounded and encompassing thoughts.

I appreciate the larger historical trend you touched on.