Analyzing the most recent polls showing an uptick for Trump and Republicans

[louis c]

First, let's look at the Democratic polls for poor election performances in 2010, 2014 and 2016. In each case, the numbers of approval for Democrats and Obama remained relatively unchanged. In 2016, Hillary beat Trump by 2 points, but underperformed her polling numbers.

The key to understanding the accuracy of these polls is gaging enthusiasm. In a recent poll that shows Trump's unfavorable gap narrowing had a key indicator. Those respondents who said they were "very unfavorable" were 46%, while the "very favorable" number was just 28%. That intensity is what makes the difference at the polls.

Today's CNN numbers are very similar. The generic Congressional ballot has now narrowed to a net of just 6% in favor of the Democrats. But the enthusiasm gap among the likely voters remains high at 20%.

That's what will make the difference and that's the important numbers to look at behind the headlines.


<snip>But Democratic voters are much more enthusiastic about casting ballots in November's midterm elections. About half -- 51% -- of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress in November, compared with just 36% among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. And at the same time, those voters who are deeply enthusiastic about voting give Democrats a better than 20-point lead on the generic ballot: 60% prefer the Democrat in their district, while 38% who prefer the Republican.<snip>

Link to CNN poll:
https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/29/politics/cnn-poll-march-2018-generic-congressional-ballot-midterm-election/index.html

[beachbum bob]

1. day to day changes in polling numbers of no particular interest, we all need to be active

in electing democrats at local, state and national levels. We DU members need to commit our time and resources in making this happen.

[louis c]

2. I am my ward chairman

and I work constantly for Democrats.

I live in Massachusetts in one of the bluest areas of the bluest state. I get "farmed out" every 4 years to a purple state, usually New Hampshire, because my local area is so reliable. I donate to close Congressional and Senate races in other states.

I know how to work for victory. I posted this information because so many people may miss the nuances of national polls.