Skeptical About a Blue Wave in November (Charlie Pierce)

[kentuck]

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a19620375/blue-wave-republican-gerrymandering/

<snip>
Sometimes, I truly despair of our elite political media. Sometimes, I believe that, if many of them saw a guy walking down the street with a duck on his head, they would make sure to go on television and point out that, hey, it might’ve been a duck walking down the street with a guy on his ass.

<snip>
I’m still somewhat skeptical about a massive Democratic sweep in November. (I certainly don’t agree with Stephens that the Republicans are setting themselves up for a wipeout like 1974, when Watergate cleaned the stables entirely.) But my skepticism is not based on hoary old clichés like Dems In Disarray or on “cannibalization” that doesn’t seem to be happening anywhere, but, rather, on the structural and institutional roadblocks pointed out last week by the good folks at the Brennan Center.

Because of maps designed to favor Republicans, Democrats would need to win by a nearly unprecedented nationwide margin in 2018 to gain control of the House of Representatives. To attain a bare majority, Democrats would likely have to win the national popular vote by nearly 11 points. Neither Democrats nor Republicans have won by such an overwhelming margin in decades. Even a strong blue wave would crash against a wall of gerrymandered maps. This high barrier to a Democratic majority is at odds with early polls showing Democrats with a significant advantage in the generic congressional ballot. As of mid-March, Democrats held an average lead of nearly eight percentage points, 48-40.1 Based on historical election results, a lead of this magnitude should net Democrats around 30 additional seats—comfortably more than the 24 they need to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Because of gerrymandering, however, that is no longer the case. Even the court-ordered redrawing of Pennsylvania’s congressional map will only improve Democrats’ chances slightly.

It took long and patient work by conservative politicians to complete the task of vandalizing democracy to their own advantage. It’s going to take long and patient work to undo the damage.

[Old Vet]

1. Well theres a reality check, Huh...........

[edhopper]

2. There will be Dem gains in Novemeber

but the numbers are stacked against taking Congress.
It's not a even playing field.

[NewJeffCT]

10. I've been saying all along

Last edited Thu Mar 29, 2018, 04:46 PM - Edit history (1)

that the senate is nearly impossible for Democrats to retake - it's been called the worst senate map in history - Republicans only have to defend 8 seats, but Democrats have 25 to defend, including 10 in Republican states.

However, I think the House is do-able because of the massive swing in voting so far - even in losses like Jon Ossof - have generally been 15-20 or more points. Conor Lamb won despite being outspent by a big margin.

[edhopper]

12. agree about the Senate

trouble with the House is gerrymandering and voter suppression.

[spanone]

3. Russia is hard at work while congress is sleeping.

[MFM008]

4. Why do they try

And dampen enthusiasm?
Always try to make it a horserace.

[blake2012]

5. If Murllers investigation reveals wide ranging GOP treason

And/or coordinate ion with Russia then all bets are off about the percent advantage Dems get in the vote.

I prefer not to be a shitty little complainer and remember that despite the institutional disadvantages, Dems got the house in 2006.

[Ryano42]

6. Whew...thanks. No reason to vote now.

Thank you for your opnion and concern, Esquire.

Despite the gerrymandering and all that is against us...by going, VOTING and helping others vote we can overcome all that!

We have won in places deemed never to be competitive...

Screw 'em...

[Javaman]

7. I will go vote and hope for the best...

everything else is reading tea leaves by the odds makers.

[edhopper]

8. A lot of you are missing the point

he is not saying stay home or don't try, he is saying:

"It took long and patient work by conservative politicians to complete the task of vandalizing democracy to their own advantage. It’s going to take long and patient work to undo the damage."

There will be gains in Nov. But we may need more time and effort to take back the government.

[BumRushDaShow]

9. "Because of maps designed to favor Republicans" - PA JUST changed its map

and that means at a minimum, a guaranteed 2-seat pickup (PA-5 & PA-17) or a possible 3-seat pickup (PA-5, PA-6, PA-17), with a potential for up to 5-seats (PA-1, PA-5, PA-6, PA-7, PA-17) if we get the turn-out up.

[oxbow]

11. 11 points or 7-8 points?

I’ve heard both on here but I think it’s more like 8. Still too high but well within the realm of possibility.

Edit to add: Nate Cohen and Nate Silver both say ~7 points.