Why Kim Jong Un is suddenly talking peace.

[Kablooie]

Last week North Korea’s main nuclear test site under a mountain in North Korea's north-east, collapsed under the stress of multiple explosions leaving it unusable. The mountain is filled with hot nuclear material and now there is a risk of it escaping into the atmosphere which would endanger areas China as well as North Korea. Soon after this occurred, Kim Jong Un announced he will suspend the testing of nuclear weapons.

This puts North Korea at a disadvantage because their nuclear program will be set back for an indefinite period.
It's also possible that China demanded that he stop his push for nuclear weapons. It has caused political strife for years and now has created a physical threat to China itself.

So if Kim Jong Un can't fight back with a nuclear arsenal his only option is to try and decrease the nuclear threat from the west with diplomacy.

This is why I think he's suddenly changed course and is being nice to South Korea. Also his upcoming meeting with Trump offers a direct opportunity to talk America into pulling out. Trump, being the easily manipulated fool he is, might actually agree because he could take credit for the new peace between the Koreas.

That's my theory, for what it's worth.

[unblock]

1. indeed, the timing makes this by far the most logical explanation

but donnie will take credit for sun rising in the east and foxnews and the faithful will liken him to reagan and the berlin wall coming down.

[MyOwnPeace]

2. Can't argue with that................

and it does give IQ45 an opportunity (as seen in some editorial cartoons already) to boast about his ability to work "the art of the deal!"

GAWD, I hate that prospect, but I'm quite frankly thrilled that it seems as though we've taken a step back away from "the crazy!"

Now, if only we could get rid of "the crazy" in the White House!

[stonecutter357]

3. I think it's Putin taking care of his assets , Trump and Kim Jong Un .

[unitedwethrive]

8. Yup, exactly what I think...

Putin has convinced (either through bribery or threats) Kim Jong Un to go through the motions to let Trump look good. Since nothing else is going well in 45's presidency, there has to be some 'victory' in order for him to be close enough in 2020 for the Russians to take care of the rest.

[underpants]

4. That's a good theory

I hadn't heard about the mountain collapse until this morning here on DU.

[Blue_Adept]

13. It's very strangely underreported

The initial problem happened months ago and caused a lot of panic and interest because of the uncertainty of it all. But then it just fell away - at the same time as the threats that were coming out of NK. Things got real quiet for awhile after that and then we had the olympics with its thaw and then other movements culminating in today. I suspect he's just trying to find a good way to come out on top of all of this and secure things long term under his own interests, which makes total sense.

[Wellstone ruled]

14. For those who remember

the North Korean Army defector. Days later,the Guardian reported that this fellow was loaded with Plutonium Radiation,and,that there was most likely hundreds more like him. Also a strong bit of evidence something went haywire with one of the Bomb tests.

This Defector was suspected to be assigned to the Testing Area.

[underpants]

15. Man I missed that story too

I need to stop doing all this work and pay more attention to DU.

[MicaelS]

5. Good post. Great idea. Thanks. n/t

[dameatball]

6. Your observation seems to be the best explanation at this point. I agree.

[Kirk Lover]

7. Don't they already have a nuclear arsenal and also they can still enrich away to their hearts

content. nt

[longship]

11. They can no longer test them.

And I think that they have precisely zero nuclear weapons in their arsenal.

For example, after Hiroshima Japan thought USA had only one nuke. After Nagasaki, they thought our arsenal was full of them. Both estimates were incorrect. They were the only two we had.

[longship]

9. Yup! The last test ran away from them.

And 100Ktons is a rather large A-bomb.

Consider that their first two tests were not even in the range of nuclear yields. My conjecture? The DPRK hadn't solved the initiator problem, a device that kicks out a few slow neutrons to start the chain reaction at the precise microsecond that the nuke stuff is assembled. No neutrons? No nuclear detonation!

So they built a bigger nuke using more uranium. Then the initiator worked and the damned thing ran away, blowing up their test site. When I heard that it was on the order of 100Ktons, I knew they were in big trouble.

So current events are not at all a surprise to me. The DPRK has no other choice. Their nuclear weapons program is deader than a Tyson chicken.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Why are they having so much trouble ?

There are many non-nuclear nations that could produce nukes by Labor Day if not the Fourth Of July.

[longship]

19. It just isn't that easy.

And there are still things held very close to the chest, like the design of the initiator, among other things.

After all, it took years for the smartest people on the planet to come up with the first ones.

One just doesn't build one of those things over night. They're really fucking difficult. And if you get your cross-sections wrong... CATASTROPHE HAPPENS. BTW, cross-sections aren't easy to calculate. Witness: Castle Bravo.

Nuclear physics ain't a high school class.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Lil Israel built 200-400.

That's crazy.

[longship]

21. Israel has great science education.

And also a great spy network, putatively the best on the planet.

I doubt that DPRK has anywhere near either compared to Israel.

Certainly DPRK's nuclear test results, as observed from this distance, do not inspire confidence in their capabilities. After all, who conducts a test that destroys ones test facilities? Well, apparently the DPRK does. It's just plain stupid to trigger a 100Kton nuke underground. Plus, the first tests were clearly well below nuclear yield. They hadn't solved the initiator problem yet.

As I wrote, this shit is really, really difficult.

[Initech]

10. Something stinks about this and I can't quite put my finger on it.

[Wounded Bear]

12. It's been reported elsewhere...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/26/north-korea-nuclear-test-site-collapse-may-be-out-of-action-china

North Korea nuclear test site has collapsed and may be out of action – China study

Report builds on evidence that site is unstable after sixth nuclear test and puts Kim Jong-un’s pledge to no longer use site in a new light

North Korea’s main nuclear test site has partially collapsed under the stress of multiple explosions, possibly rendering it unsafe for further testing and leaving it vulnerable to radiation leaks, a study by Chinese geologists has shown.

The findings could cast doubt on North Korea’s sincerity in announcing last weekend that it would stop testing nuclear weapons at the site ahead of Friday’s summit between the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, and the South Korean president, Moon Jae-in.

The test site at Punggye-ri, in a mountainous area in North Korea’s north-east, has been the location for all six of the regime’s nuclear tests since 2006.

The findings, by scientists at the University of Science and Technology of China, suggest the partial collapse of the mountain that contains the testing tunnels, as well as the risk of radiation leaks, have potentially rendered the site unusable.

[Turbineguy]

16. Also, trump is easy to manipulate

Kim Jong Un will get a better deal from trump now than he would get if trump were replaced by a real President.

[Pathwalker]

17. Most important news of the day. Media ignoring it is

troubling.

[B2G]

22. It was reported last year. nt