The economy is humming. So why do experts foresee a recession in 2020?

[Quixote1818]

The skies of the U.S. economy are clear and sunny, but many analysts see storm clouds on the horizon.

By many measures, the economy is in its best shape since the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009. Unemployment hit an 18-year low of 3.8% in May. Average wage growth is widely expected to reach 3% by the end of the year. And the economy is projected to grow nearly 3% in 2018 for just the second time since the downturn.

Yet the economic expansion is the second-longest in U.S. history, leading many economists to forecast a recession as early as next year. Half the economists surveyed last month by the National Association of Business Economics foresee a recession starting in late 2019 or in early 2020, and two-thirds are predicting a slump by the end of 2020.

Why?

Precisely because things seem to be going so well.

The late stage of an economic expansion is most vulnerable to a popping of the bubble. It's typically when unemployment falls, inflation heats up, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to cool the economy down — often going too far — and investors and consumers pull back.

Link: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/06/11/recession-2020-heres-why-economists-think-may-happen/686177002/

[Wellstone ruled]

1. Zero wage increases in

a inflationary economy. Tariffs extract disposable dollars from those who can least afford it,and remember,this hits the majority of consumers.

[Sherman A1]

2. For far too many the recession

never ended.

[appalachiablue]

3. Correct, many whose homes, retirement funds & jobs were lost, others

struggling with debt, esp. student loans, lower paying employment, the rising cost of healthcare and more.

[braddy]

4. I'm interested in the inflation.

[Locutusofborg]

5. Current Inflation Rate

Current US Inflation Rate
"The current inflation rate for the United States is 2.8% for the 12 months ended May 2018, as published on June 12, 2018 by the U.S. Labor Department. The next update is scheduled for release on July 14, 2018 at 8:30 a.m. ET. It will offer the rate of inflation over the 12 months ended June 2018."
http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

The Federal Reserve just yesteday raised interest rates to ward off an over-inflated economy. The fed will continue with 2 more rate increases for the rest of the year.

[Locutusofborg]

8. Inflation in Argentina & Venezuela

To contrast with the current U.S. Inflation rate of 2.8%, in Argentina the rate is 20% and that's way down from 40% in 2017.
In Venezuela Consumer prices jumped 13,379 percent year-on-year in April of 2018. The Inflation Rate in Venezuela averaged 94.42 percent from 1973 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 13,379 percent in April of 2018 and a record low of 3.22 percent in February of 1973.

[workinclasszero]

6. A minimum-wage worker can't afford a 2-bedroom apartment anywhere in the U.S.

By Tracy Jan June 13
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/13/a-minimum-wage-worker-cant-afford-a-2-bedroom-apartment-anywhere-in-the-u-s/?utm_term=.228e404b3fca

Yeah the economy sure is humming along for the 1%.

Not so much for millions and millions of other American though.

[Locutusofborg]

9. Workers at minimm wage or below

That only 2.3% of the work force is at or below minimum wage.
"The percentage of hourly paid workers earning the prevailing federal minimum wage or less declined from 2.7 percent in 2016 to 2.3 percent in 2017. This remains well below the percentage of 13.4 percent recorded in 1979, when data were first collected on a regular basis."
https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/2017/home.htm

[workinclasszero]

10. 40% of Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense

by Anna Bahney
May 22, 2018: 4:44 PM ET

http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/22/pf/emergency-expenses-household-finances/index.html

[LSFL]

11. I wonder how the numbers would be for people making less than 500 dollars a week?

That would cover a lot of people in my state. A lot of companies start a little over minimum and never raise or promote. 8 dollars is effectively the same as 7.25 .

[wishstar]

7. Americans are spending too much, saving too little with inflation and interest rates rising

Without substantial wage hikes, the spending is not sustainable and Americans will once again get overextended on credit.