Decades of observing American politics has revealed this simple observation to me: Democratic candidates in general, because the Democratic Party actually vets its candidates and has less tolerance for criminals, rarely sink in the polls as an election year matures (except, of course, at the touchscreen). They tend to hold position or improve over time starting this far out from an election.
Witness President Obama right now; he had a bad year and at one point his job approval rates nearly sank to the best job approval ratings George Bush ever got after being "reelected." The low-40s was also where Senator Obama started out, in imaginary head-to-head polling back in 2007. He'll be over 60% by next fall.
Republican candidates, on the other hand, are criminals, chosen by other criminals through their interpersonal connections and their shared conspiracies. They almost always sink in the polls as soon as their primary season ends. That's because an imaginary Republican candidate is always better than the peccant shill who eventually wins the primaries.
"Son, I love your strategy," said Barbara Bush. "Don't let them get to know you." And that's the key to Republican success: concealing their base nature until it is too late. As long as they can hide behind the marketing-team image created for them, they do fine. But public scrutiny invariably reveals serious flaws in character and decision making--which is why they're Republicans in the first place.
Not knowing what George Allen was about is what greased his skids the last time. He had the same juice the other Georgie had, too: son of a guy more famous than he (and, we would learn, infinitely more competent as well). As long as he was mysterious, his father's reputation burnished his own far brighter than it should have been.
But now we know. Sure, many Virginians have forgotten... which is awesome, because it's his only chance to get the nomination. Which in turn is awesome because it's going to be much easier to remind them of who George Allen is than it was to teach them the last time.
The hard job will be keeping the press distracted until after Allen wins the nomination. 'Cause Allen is definitely the guy I want our guy (or gal) to run against.
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