Romney stands a good chance of being elected President

[cali]

It seems like the majority of posts on this subject endorse the idea that Romney doesn't stand a chance.

He does.

Why? The reasons are numerous:

1) Money, money, money. The big PACs and the rMoney campaign itself haven't even begun really spending the vast wads of cash that they're sitting on. They'll start this week and it going to be relentless, negative and majorly false from now until November 3. That can make a serious difference.

2) The economy. It sucks and lots of voters don't stick with what they've got under poor economic conditions. They'll vote for change. Any change at all.

3) Obama is black and there are voters who cast their ballot for him last time around, who'll say to themselves "I gave the black guy a chance and it didn't work out, I'm going back to the white guy who knows all about business. I'm not a racist because I voted for Obama last time around".

4) Obama is black and the racists (there are a lot of them) hate that he's president.

5) The MSM will continue letting rMoney get away with all kinds of shit.

6) The electorate is persuadable and as a whole, not informed. And stupid.


There's more but those are all major considerations.

Romney can win this thing. And that's even without taking into account that republicans can steal it if it's close. And it likely will be.

[aquart]

1. The black man you know or the Mormon you dislike and distrust? Tough choice.

BTW, Your contempt for your fellow Americans is appalling.

[cali]

3. appalling or not, Americans are voting in wingers at a horrifying rate

and the refusal to acknowledge that Americans are woefully ignorant of issues and government is simply silly.

[adigal]

20. Just in winger states

And one of obamas top advisors said he wasn't worried about Romney buying more ad time, because the ad time was already all bought.

I used to think Romney could win, but the more Americans know him, the more they hate him! His unfavorable rating is 50%!

[1-Old-Man]

59. We see it a lot in the Primaries, but how many of them win in the general elections?

I do not have any numbers but it seems to me that the Tea Baggers, the 'wingers', and such as them are very good at winning their primaries but I don't think they fare quite so well when its time for the real elections. Of course too many of them have made it all the way to Office, but with luck we can start tossing they back out with this election. Let's start by electing Elizabeth Warren.

[JaneQPublic]

36. Bumper Sticker I Saw:

"I'd Rather Vote for the MORMON Than for the MORON."

To eliminate any doubt of who the "moron" is (and, yes, they spelled it correctly), they put an Obama symbol inside the "O" of "Obama."

Putting aside the easy argument of just how ironic it is that a likely former GWBush supporter would consider Obama a "moron," the bumper sticker does address an apparent reluctance by the GOP base to vote for a Mormon.

However, it appears the other side has adopted the same approach to Obama that our side took in 2004 to GWBush: "I'd rather vote for a ham sandwich than [insert incumbent president's name here.]"

[Hatchling]

75. My RW aquaintance said:

She'd rather tolerate just 4 years if the black man than put up with eight years of the Morman.

[ArcticFox]

77. Contempt may be too strong a word

There is no contempt in truth. And Americans, many of them, are stupid.

[redgreenandblue]

2. In any case, we know what the rhetoric will be from the Democrats:

If Obama wins, it will be because of his "pragmatic centrist compromises". If Obama loses, it will because "professional far-left Naderites undermined him".

Pesonally, I am not so pessimistic. Romney really does suck and he doesn't have the Christians behind him.

[redgreenandblue]

7. Lol, not a day goes by without you accusing someone of being a repuke.

Look up my posts, I am not a repuke.

[cali]

12. yeah, sure.

do you know the meaning of the word 'hyperbole'? how about 'mendacious'?

[redgreenandblue]

14. How does your perceived hyperbole make me a repuke?

And: So you seriously don't believe that if something goes wrong there will be strong attempts to blame "the far left"? Maybe that is about as naive as thinking the election will be a cakewalk.

But regardless, I don't think Ronmey will win.

[Douglas Carpenter]

16. I do have to agree that if Obama loses the mainstream line throughout the media and the political

class will be that it happened because Obama was too left-wing. That is more than a fair prediction.

[truebrit71]

44. Oh that's a guarantee...."America rejects Obama's Socialist Agenda" will be the Faux News line...

...which is why it will be so much fun to watch them try and spin Rmoney's upcoming MASSIVE LOSS in the election...

[Nye Bevan]

48. WHOOPS, a little quick with the accusations today, Honeypie Dearie. (nt)

[Tx4obama]

5. I disagree. I've been watching all the electoral map predictions, I can't see Romney getting 270.

FiveThirtyEight map on the right side of the page: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Electoral-Vote map: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

HuffPo map: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

Election Projection map: http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/president12.php

Frontloading map: http://frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2012-electoral-college-map.html

RCP: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

[snooper2]

61. I can't either, Romney has to turn too many states he's too far behind in...

I'm sure his team knows this so they've got Congress trying to dig up any possible scandel they think they can find and the superpacs will start flooding airwaves...

I think the debates will be the nail in the coffin though...the president will hand him his ass- All Mittens will have is that smug fake "he he ha" laugh he does and he will look like a fool.

[DrDan]

6. agree - I have read here that

Obama is 100% assured of winning, that we will add to both the House and the Senate, and (most amazing) that money makes no difference in this election.

imo there is one additional reason - the enthusiasm is simply lacking - particularly with young voters.

[cali]

8. the denial is par for the course

I've watched it for years here. I still find it disturbing.

[redgreenandblue]

9. Enthusiasm.

In 2008 I saw people randomly start chanting "yes we can" in the streets. I have seen no such a thing recently. But yet, I think the fact that Romney really is horrible carries a long way.

[JNelson6563]

10. 08 included a hard fought primary

on our side. A different story then than now.

Julie

[uponit7771]

45. +1,...and neither candidate in the primary was "hated" like rMoney is. If Clinton won I would suppor

...support here just the same

[Douglas Carpenter]

11. of course, one would have to be an utter fool not to understand that Romney has very good chance

Last edited Thu Aug 9, 2012, 08:52 AM - Edit history (1)

of winning election and being inaugurated President of the United States. I think Obama has an advantageous position at this point. I think he will probably win. I think there is a reasonable possibility the President could win reelection by a very solid margin. But even if we simply go by the standard prediction markets that certainly look very, very good for Obama - especially today. Intrade for example is scoring Obama at a 59.6% chance of winning reelection and Romney with a 38% chance of being elected. Well a 38% chance shows that it is far, far, from over. Of course Obama has the advantage at this point. Of course it is entirely possible Romney could still win this November and of course Romney could become President the United States come this January 2013.

[cali]

13. There are a ton of people here who absolutely will not

acknowledge that Romney could win. It's the same sort of denial that we see every election. I think the odds are pretty good that Obama will win too, but for the reasons listed in the OP, Romney is not out of the running by a long shot.

[Douglas Carpenter]

15. Whistling past the graveyard

Bad things happen in life. Terrible things, sometimes - even Republicans winning the White House.

I think it probably will not happen this year. But one would have to be very, very foolish and utterly naive not to understand that it is entirely possible.

[deutsey]

29. I think the fact that the ultra-wealthy have hi-jacked most institutions

in America (judicial, Congress, media, voting process, etc.) is worthy of concern.

[ProfessorGAC]

52. How Many Zeroes In A Ton?

You're using a mile wide brush to make your point. Exactly how many people have you actually seen write that, and what's the percentage of those vs. the folks that are simply confident of Obama's victory.

You accuse other of hyperbole? Really?
GAC

[NNN0LHI]

17. The posts you read here are meaningless

DU is not representative of the American electorate or the Democratic party.

Don

[earthside]

55. It is going to be tough, close.

DU absolutely is not representative of the American electorate ... and it is not supposed to be, but good folks who frequent here forget that most of the time.

I have been saying for awhile that I think that Colorado (where I live) may very well go for Rmoney ... and that drives a lot of my political acquaintances crazy. But we do not have a statewide race this year, unlike in 2008 when we had a U.S. Senate seat -- and that definitely helps turnout the Democratic vote. I have a son at University of Colorado and enthusiasm for Obama is gone among many of those young folks who ardently went out and voted for him four years ago.

I am not so sanguine about Obama's chances for a variety of reasons:

a) The Repuglicans are cheating and doing a decent job of suppressing the vote; even if voter ID laws get thrown-out, the confusion will likely lead to less Democratic voters.

b) I don't think people are beginning to understand that amount of money the corporate powers are going to spend to defeat Pres. Obama. And a lot of that is not going to ads to persuade people to change their minds, but to make marginal voters (which tend Democratic) so disgusted that they just don't vote at all.

c) The economy is worse than most people here at DU think -- these unemployment numbers are bogus; the GDP numbers are anemic and bogus; jobs that are coming-up pay minimum wage and no benefits; and here is a big one ... inflation is bad and getting worse (any expedition to the grocery store proves this).

d) The Repuglicans have been catapulting the anti-Obama propaganda for four years now -- it has penetrated a lot deeper than the Democrats think. A lot of anti-Obama voters are not cognizant of the racism and bigotry in the arguments they make ... but many believe that since Barack Obama was elected four years ago, it proves they aren't bigots, so they are okay accept all kinds of conspiracy theories.

e) The mainstream corporate media is lazy and is a part of the one percent; they will be 'balanced' even when Rmoney and the Repuglicans lie.

f) Finally, it is sad to say that Pres. Obama has been too conciliatory, too "no drama"; not visionary; and, frankly, not bold enough in his policies for too long -- amping up the rhetoric now is not going to assuage people who think he is not up to being President during these tough times.

Now, Pres. Obama has a lot of advantages and on most given days I think the odds slightly favor his re-election -- he is nicer and more likable than Rmoney; he actually hasn't done much to offend voters; his campaign is raising a lot of money, too; the demographics of the country favor the Democrats; he can point to accomplishments; and, Rmoney is a pretty crappy candidate.

Assuming a good GOTV organization from the Obama campaign and the Democrats, Pres. Obama's best bet to take a good lead over Rmoney will be to propose a real, big, dramatic policy idea at the DNC ... that is not his style, but maybe the campaign will be scared enough to do that, I hope so.

It may look like Pres. Obama has an easier path on the electoral college map to re-election -- but in most of the swing states that he won last time the margin was very thin, one to three percent. So, a Rmoney win is very possible.

That's my dime store analysis.

[Canadian 2]

18. If you elect Romney........

I'll no longer argue with fellow Canucks who say you Yanks are stupid.

[Chorophyll]

35. Thanks. Obviously no one on this board is voting for Romney,

but do go on being your lovely self...eh?

[RC]

40. I've been agreeing with that for years.

Us Yanks are stupid. Look at our health care system. Look at all the people in the Tea party that get elected... and reelected - And their supporters! Good god, how stupid can they get?!
Both major parties are Right of center and yet we cannot connect the dots to the slow recovery, as we slide farther to the Right.

[Patiod]

53. health care, gun fanaticism, no mandatory sick leave, little vacation time

Four ways in which the US is way out of step with the rest of the First World.

And yet people think all of these things are just super, and keep pulling the levers that will maintain the status quo

[Autumn]

19. Cali, I read your post and it scares the hell out of me.

I think you hit a bulls eye on every point you made.

[Major Nikon]

21. Here is why I can't agree

1) Both candidates have enough money to saturate radio and TV in the contested states. At some point both candidates are going to see significantly diminishing returns for their money.

2) This is not always true. Americans will vote for change if they hold the sitting President responsible for the economic downturn. In this case, most don't.

3) A closet racist wouldn't have voted for Obama the first time.

4) This didn't stop Obama's first term where this would have been a much larger factor.

5) The MSM will let some things get by, but they will also hound him relentlessly on others which they are already doing.

6) 3 months out, most people have already made up their mind. If the election were held today, Rmoney would get routed.

There are currently 8 states that RCP currently lists as toss ups. Those 8 states are worth 100 electoral votes, out of which Rmoney HAS to win at least 79. Obama needs only 23. Out of those 8 states, the only one in which Rmoney currently holds a lead is in North Carolina and even then it's by the slimest of margins with the trend favoring Obama. If Rmoney loses Florida, it's over. If Rmoney loses Ohio, he'd have to win every other toss up state.

Add to this, Rmoney is just not that likeable. He currently has a 40/49% approval/disapproval rating. Obama has a 53% approval rating which is 5 points higher than Shrub had at this point in 2004.

No matter how you stack it, Rmoney is in up Rio de Caca without a paddle.

[jberryhill]

22. You know what's funny?

Do you remember in 2008 how there was this postulated "white voter reflex" in which people who say they will vote for Obama will get into the voting booth, and NOT vote for the black guy?

Obama himself joked about it on the Daily Show when asked whether he was afraid his "white half" would rebel when he tried to vote for himself, and he said, holding one arm with the other, "I've been working on that."

Okay, so.. No, no, no, no, no..... That's not what happened.

Despite the "proven fact" status quo ante that his white vote would always vote lower than it polled, we are now no longer at war with West Asia, we have never been at war with West Asia....

INSTEAD, we are now supposed to take it as "fact" that a substantial portion of the white vote for Obama was some kind of freaking "novelty vote" or "white guilt affirmative action vote". But now, those craaazy dreamers have come to their senses.

I call bullshit on that.

[Major Nikon]

23. The voters who are racist enough not to vote for a black man are already wingnuts

So it's not as if Obama is going to be courting them anyway, even if he were white.

[davidpdx]

71. I agree with you

(this is a late response, I'd wanted to respond yesterday but things got hectic)

The money issue does worry me a little, but I think as long as Obama keeps the fundraising close it will be fine. Outside groups are going to be the biggest threat and at some point people are going to start to tune that crap out for the bullshit it is.

Most of the people who have decided not to vote for Obama won't. It is the undecideds especially independents we need to be working to move toward Obama.

The mainstream media won't be perfect, they never have been and never will be. As mentioned they are going to nail Romney on somethings. The Andrea Saul interview and the roll out of the commercial about public assistance they are getting hammered on. More so because they happened on the same day.

I'd like to add to your suggestions that Obama is hitting back hard, unlike what Kerry did in 2004.

It is important to look at the positive aspects of what Obama is doing to counter the Republican attacks.

[Major Nikon]

78. The Obama campaign is in the drivers seat

Look at the Rmoney ads right now. He's replaying the 'war on religion' wingnut talking points. In other words, Rmoney is having to play to his base just to get people to show up to the polls. Meanwhile Obama is hitting Rmoney on issues that appeal to moderates. Add to this Rmoney can't interact with the press without facing a barage of questions regarding his taxes. This makes Rmoney appear even more like the putz he is.

[pecwae]

24. Of course there's a chance.

The political climate is fluid with no certainty. It's healthy to realize that nothing is predetermined and participation, rather that parroting feel good memes, is critical.

[Gman]

25. To think otherwise is foolish and delusional

Both candidates have a solid 45%. All they need is the slim 5.1% of the electorate to win. I'm not optimistic and am dreading the next 4 years and beyond.

[Iggy]

30. In 2008, Obama Won Ohio

by something like 107,000 votes.

that's not much of a margin. I think Obama is vulnerable in OH. the youth voters are
not motivated as in 2008... so it's (again) all about who shows up on election
day in some of these crucial states.

hard to win election if one loses OH.

[HughBeaumont]

32. You're discounting the Kat$hit factor.

The Wingnut Gov is not very well luvved . . . and neither is Portman. He made his anti-union agenda clear as day with SB5 and the voters soundly defeated it. Their wingnuttery hasn't helped Ohio in the least, especially in regards to it's public sector.

[Iggy]

34. Doesn't Matter

IMHO -- there's numerous disillusioned young voters out there who actually bought
into O's "hope and change" meme... OK, where's the change?

too many college grads with no career prospects.. moving back home with mom
and dad... these voters are not going to show up on election day. when your margin
of victory in a state like OH is only 107,000 votes... you have to have _everyone_
show up who voted for you last time

apathy is already rampant in our nation-- only fifty percent of eligible voters
actually vote. Russia has higher voter turnout...

[HughBeaumont]

43. If they're smart, they'd know this shite economy is not at all Obama's fault.

Our nation cannot correct in four years an economy that, for 31 years straight, has been holding the wages of it's citizens down in the face of a skyrocketing cost of living. Our nation cannot correct in four years extreme corporate malfeasance, corporate government-led risk-shifting from the rich to the poor, corporate government-led wealth transfer from the poor to the rich, and rapidly regressive taxation.

Our nation especially cannot do this when you have the leaders and promoters of failed Milton Friedman theory running the show on a federal and state level for 31 years straight.

If they were smart, they should know a Trickle-Down-created problem isn't going to be fixed with Trickle-Down-on-steroids solutions.

Romney is hardly an ace-in-the-hole politician. He's flawed in so many ways, he has no name recognition, enthusiasm for his candidacy isn't exactly gangbusters among Republicans, let alone fence-sitters and independents and his endless treadmill of dumb statements and actions is not endearing the millions of people who actually WILL vote.

Things economically ARE changing, albeit very . .. very glacially. It's an utter miracle our economic situation IS changing, considering it could be a lot better if President Obama had a congress that wasn't either Third Way Worthless or Repug Regressive.

[Iggy]

66. It's not about "Being Smart"

Keep in mind voters have short memories, with concurrent high
expectations.

and the democratic meme "we need twenty years to fix the problem" is not cutting it
for people who can't find employment. the view of many is this POTUS has
been in office for four years, and we're still at 8.3-8.4% UNemployment.

that's the kiss of death for incumbents

[HughBeaumont]

69. Actually, it kind of IS.

While voters rightfully have expectations of leaders, at the same time, that doesn't mean they can just push a lever and be "hands off". They can't just rip on the far-better-informed European voters or their far more Democratic system, but at the same time, complain about our government and call them "all crooks" when they cannot even name three key positions of each politician they vote for.

I don't know what to tell them in regards to the economy . . . don't elect politicians from the Hayek/Strauss/Friedman schools of economic theory? Stop believing Fox News, Arthur Laffer and Reaganomics? Get out in the streets when Wall Streeters are appointed to major cabinet positions?

[Iggy]

81. Let's back up a bit

fifty percent of our eligible voters don't bother to show up on election day--
they have opted out of the system because they know whomever is POTUS has
very little to do with paying the mortgage.

GOTV efforts by the "two" parties are feeble... in their opinion, the fewer people that
vote the better-- just look at fascist GOP efforts to limit the Dem vote in swing states.

[WI_DEM]

50. It was more like 260,000 vote margin but still in the scheme of things close

but for some reason Ohio has been good in all the polls for Obama this year. I think for one reason it's because the state's economy is improving at a better rate than many states nationally.

[Animal Chin]

26. Anything is possible

See: the reelection of Bush II.

[Motown_Johnny]

27. Define "Good" in this context.

I'll admit it is possible. There are some things that are out of anyone's control and if Europe's economy collapses then it might take President Obama down with it.


The electoral collage highly favors President Obama and he has a much better chance of winning than does Rmoney.




I don't think that the word "good" is appropriate when describing his chances of winning.

[Iggy]

28. This is a No Brainer

our economy has sucked the entire time Obama has been in office-- I agree
not totally his fault, but that's not how most voters think.

forget the culture war balony.. most voters in the end vote their pocketbooks.

if they, their friends and relatives don't have jobs and can't find work-- they're
going to blame the incumbent.

I think this is still too early to predict.. but if the UNemployment stays where
it, it's not good for Obama

[ProSense]

31. Stuff like this

is not good for Romney:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021069095

Also, Romney's numbers are moving in the wrong direction:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021093416

[NRaleighLiberal]

33. I am aware of your points, vigilant - but confident Obama will win.

Just feeling it in my bones!

[Hoyt]

37. I wish I were as confident as some that it's a shoe-in. It's close, and an economic shock

could throw it to Romneyhood. He's got strong support from the hateful, bigoted, greedy bunch. I think lots of independents might well say, this is not working, let's try something else.

I feel it's Obama, but too much can happen (even if it is manufactured or a lie).

[bemildred]

38. Yep, once ex-President Dole starts campaigning for him, it will be a real contest. nt

[99Forever]

39. Anything is possible.

Realistic?

Not so much.

[coalition_unwilling]

41. Against your list of indisputable points, I would simply counter with three counter-points:

1) Obama is likable and Romney is not. I mean, seriously, do you know anyone (human, that is) who says he or she 'likes' Romney?

2) Obama is competent and Romney is not. Campaign 2012 and Europe-Israel Trip. Cases in point for Romney's incompetence.

3) Obama is honest and Romney is not. Tax returns the obvious indicator. Tenure at Bain and so on.

****************

I hold no strong love for Obama this time around (although I do find myself liking him personally quite intensely). His key staffing choices (Emmanuel, Gates and Holder) left me uninspired and unimpressed. And key policy decisions (drone strikes, escalation in AfPak theater) provoked my intense dissent. But there are times when voting the lesser of two evils is a CIVIC DUTY and I think most Americans will rise to the challenge in November.

[IDemo]

42. Voter suppression, e-voting and election fraud

These could well make the difference in this election, along with the factors you mentioned. I'm not as sure as many here that Obama has it in the bank.

[Ezlivin]

49. They've got it sewn up

I agree with the points you make.

People are uneducated on election fraud, despite what occurred in 2004 in Ohio. Where have all the exit polls gone? That's right: They're not considered an accurate prediction of election outcome in this country although they are in every other country.

[spanone]

46. but he won't.

[WI_DEM]

47. You're right--Rmoney can win--I think Obama is the favorite at the moment

but a bad economic report on jobs, for instance, on the Friday before the election could give Millard and the media a whole weekend to pound into Obama just as Reagan and the media did with Carter the weekend before the 1980 election with Iran Hostages.

[liberallibral]

51. Completely Agree!

No time to get lazy and complacent... Keep fighting until Election Day!!!

[Zorra]

54. This: The electorate is persuadable and as a whole, not informed. And stupid.

I live in a rural area in AZ. After talking with a number of people about the upcoming election, there is no doubt in my mind that conservatism has been institutionalized into the collective consciousness of this culture through the calculated deliberate manipulations of the MSM by the 1%. People who are not all that bright, and only semi-literate, are astoundingly ignorant, naive, and misinformed. If they saw it on TV, it's gotta be true.

I'm here to tell you, it's really, really frackin' scary.

People believe what they see and here on TV and on the radio. Fox News, and RW AM hate radio.

I'm quite sure that not a one of these idiots could even come close to passing the citizenship test that immigrants must take to become citizens of the US.

Welcome to 21st century Plutarchal Idiocracy.

[pnwmom]

56. You forgot the biggest reason. Voter ID, and other methods

of suppressing the vote.

[Bluerthanblue]

57. sadly you are right Cali

this isn't going to be an easy election, but so much is riding on it.

I believe your prediction of Portman as vp is also correct, and it will sway some of the people who don't really 'like' Romney- the more moderate republicans. Which could make this even more difficult.

We are going to have to work hard to succeed. But we have to succeed.

[Prism]

58. I've been surprised by the cavalier attitude on display here

No election is a given when an economy is stumbling through a minor depression. I worry how many Democrats may be getting complacent because they think Mitt's a clown and President Obama has this in the bag.

Take nothing for granted. We need to work, work, work all the way to November and treat everything Mitt says and does as potentially lethal.

[Douglas Carpenter]

60. any who thinks this election is a shoe-in for Obama or does not realized just how reactionary a

large portion of America is - needs to go and sit at the bar during happy hour at any average working class bar - even in a blue city in a blue state and just listen to people talk. Don't talk, just listen. Anyone who does not realize just reactionary a near-majority of America really is- just plain does not know America - at all.

Of course Romney might win. Personally, I think Obama will probably pull it off this time. But it is far, far from over. Bad things happen in this world, terrible things - even things as unthinkable as Republicans winning elections.

[cbdo2007]

62. Not really. Have you seen the electoral maps?

Romney has a very small chance of being elected and his chances deteriorate every day. If it were Santorum or Pawlenty I would be so much more worried but Romney's entire campaign is in shambles. They almost couldn't have a worse candidate.

It all comes down to just a few states and President Obama is even showing as leading handily in those. Based on what we've seen from Romney so far, with the debates still to come especially, things for him will probably only get worse.

I agree that there is a SMALL chance he could be elected but there is no way that I would ever state that he has a good chance of being elected.

[ProSense]

63. Romney and

his surrogates are stand a "good chance" of screwing up his "good chance"

Off With Her Head!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021098931

Exclusive Romney Interview: On Humility and Tax Returns (Romney lies)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021098627

Gingrich admits: 'no proof' to support welfare smear
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021098790

[Tikki]

64. Californians rejected two CEO types who threw obscene amounts of monies into their campaigns...

and went with the guy who knew what he was doing. I doubt that rmoney can convince
the average Californian he knows how to run a Country, but maybe the you people in other
places, he might be able to fool them. This Country truly has some foolish voters.



Tikki

[RBInMaine]

65. A chance, but unlikely. Let me respond to your six points in turn:

1) Thanks to the 5 corrupted corporatists on the SCOTUS, Citizens United allows a ton of GOP secret and outside PAC cash. However, Obama and Dems also have some such cash (remember the Hollywood folks, unions, etc.) and MANY more individual small donors. They'll be outspent, but not in massive ways. I don't think this will be a deciding factor. In fact, they've already started to close the gap.

2) The majority of Americans do not blame Obama for the sluggish economy, and it is the not the only item they vote on. Americans are far more nuanced. They know what he inherited, and many in fact give him credit for what gains have been made. Many believe he needs more time. They understand it is a global mess, not just a US problem, and that we are actually doing better than many other nations.
If we continue to add jobs between now and November even modestly, the world situation remains relatively stable, and the stock market stays in the 12,000-13,000 range, it is very hard for Team-Mittens to assert we are in an economic disaster/failure situation. Team-Obama continues to attack Mittens hard on his own FAILED economic plan and his own FAILED record at Bain and in MA.
And Obama can claim 5 million new jobs under very tough circumstances.

3/4) I don't think this is going to change to many votes. Those who didn't vote for him due to race mostly already did that last time.

5) Yes, the corporate media leans R, but it won't be the deciding factor.

6) The electorate is not "stupid." It is generally smart, thoughtful, and nuanced.

All indications are that this will be a close election, but based on history and the totality of facts and circumstances, Obama is favored to win this election. The best thing we each can do between now and November 6th is to volunteer at the local for the Dems. That means making calls, knocking on doors, and donating whatever we each can.

[Liberal_in_LA]

67. excellent post

[TeamPooka]

68. if #4 was true he wouldn't be President now

[grantcart]

70. absolutely. In fact Obama will not get the nomination in the first place. If he does McCain is

going to clean his clock. Oh wait, nevermind.

If you really believe what you say then you should immediately buy Romney on Intrade. His number is so low that the chance of Portman becoming a VP nominee is almost more expensive than buying Romney to win the Presidency.

We still have to get people registered and get them to vote.

[YoungDemCA]

72. Not a good chance, but there is a chance...

And us Democrats, can't afford to take that for granted.

[ibegurpard]

73. pretend that we're slightly behind

but that with enough GOTV we can still turn it around. That's the way this election needs to be approached. All the "Romney is Toast" bullshit needs to stop STAT.

[Egalitarian Thug]

74. In summation;

1) Americans are largely stupid people
2) True. History is not on the President's side on this one
3) Americans are largely stupid people
4) Americans are largely stupid people
5) Americans are largely stupid people
6) Ditto

[arely staircase]

76. odds are roughly two to one that he won't nt

[onenote]

79. +1

For a board that is dedicated to political discussions, a lot of the posters are extraordinarily naive when it comes to political reality.

[SlimJimmy]

80. +1 to your +1