The Most Important Races of 2018

[RandySF]

Last edited Wed Aug 29, 2018, 10:30 PM - Edit history (3)

GOVERNOR
AZ-GOV: Dave Garcia https://dg4az.com
CO-GOV: Jared Polis https://polisforcolorado.com
FL-GOV: Andrew Gillum https://andrewgillum.com
GA-GOV: Stacey Abrams https://staceyabrams.com
MI-GOV: Gretchen Whitmer http://www.gretchenwhitmer.com
ME-GOV: Janet Mills https://www.janetmills.com
MN-GOV: Tim Walz https://walzflanagan.org
NV-GOV: Steve Sisolak https://stevesisolak.com
OH-GOV: Richard Courdray https://cordrayforohio.com/
OR-GOV: Kate Brown https://katebrownfororegon.com
WI-GOV: Tony Evers https://www.tonyevers.com


U.S. SENATE
AZ-SEN: Kyrsten Sinema https://kyrstensinema.com/
FL-SEN: Bill Nelson https://www.nelsonforsenate.com
IN-SEN: Joe Donnelly https://joeforindiana.com
MO-SEN: Claire McCaskill https://clairemccaskill.com
ND-SEN: Heidi Heitkamp https://heidifornorthdakota.com
NV-SEN: Jacky Rosen https://www.rosenfornevada.com
TN-SEN: Phil Bredesen https://www.bredesen.com
WV-SEN: Joe Manchin https://joemanchinwv.com/

U.S. HOUSE
CA-10: Josh Harder https://www.harderforcongress.com
CA-25: Katie Hill https://www.katiehillforcongress.com
CA-45: Katie Porter https://katieporter.com
CA-48: Harley Rouda https://harleyforcongress.com
CA-30: Gil Cisneros: https://cisnerosforcongress.com
CO-06: Jason Crow https://jasoncrowforcongress.com
IA-01: Abby Finkenaur https://www.abbyfinkenauer.com/
IA-03: Cindy Axne https://cindyaxneforcongress.com
IL-06: Sean Casten https://castenforcongress.com
IL-12: Brendan Kelly https://brendan4southernil.com
KS-02: Paul Davis https://www.davisforkansas.com
KS-03: Sharice Davids: https://www.shariceforcongress.com
KY-06: Amy McGrath https://amymcgrathforcongress.com
ME-02: Jared Golden https://jaredgoldenforcongress.com
MI-08: Elissa Slotkin https://elissaforcongress.com
MI-11: Haley Stevens https://haleystevensforcongress.com
MN-01: Dan Feehan https://danfeehan.com
MN-02: Angie Craig https://www.angiecraig.com
MN-03: Phil Phillips https://www.phillipsforcongress.org
MN-08: Jon Radinovish https://www.joeradinovich.com
NC-09: Dan McCreedy https://www.danmccready.com
NJ-03: Andy Kim https://andykimforcongress.com
NJ-07: Tom Malinowski https://malinowskifornj.com
NY-19: Antonio Delgado https://www.delgadoforcongress.com
NY-22: Anthony Brindisi https://brindisiforcongress.com
OH-01: Aftab Pureval https://aftabforohio.com
OH-12: Danny O'Connor https://dannyoconnorforcongress.com
TX-07: Lizzie Fletcher https://www.lizziefletcher.com
TX-23: Gina Ortiz Jones https://ginaortizjones.com
VA-07: Abigail Spanberger https://abigailspanberger.com
WA-08: Kim Schrier https://www.drkimschrier.com


STATE LEGISLATIVE
AZ-SD06: Wade Carlisle http://carlisleforsenate.nationbuilder.com
AZ-SD17: Steve Weichart http://www.weichertforaz.com
AZ-SD28: Christine Marsh http://www.christineportermarsh.com
CO-SD16: Tammy Story https://story4co.com
CO-SD24: Faith Winter https://www.faithwinter.com
CO-SD20: Jessie Danielson http://www.jessiedanielson.com
FL-SD06: Kayser Enneking https://www.ennekingforflorida.com
FL-SD16: Amanda Murphy https://amandamurphyfl.com
FL-SD18: Janet Cruz https://janetcruz2018.com
FL-SD22: Bob Doyel https://bobdoyel.com
FL-SD36: David Perez https://davidperezforsenate.com
ME-SD11: Erin Herbig https://erinherbig.org
ME-SD13: Laura Fortman https://fortman.mainecandidate.com
ME-SD20: Ned Claxton https://nedclaxton.mainecandidate.com
MI-SD12: Rosemary Beyer https://www.rosemarybayer.com
MI-SD13: Mallory McMorrow https://www.mcmorrowformichigan.com
MI-SD20: Sean Mcann http://seanamccann.com
MI-SD29: Winnie Brinks https://winniebrinks.com
MN-SD13: Joe Perska https://www.perskeforsenate.com
NH-SD08: Jenn Alford-Teaster https://www.jennforsenate.com
NH-SD23: Jon Morgan https://www.jonmorgan.org
NH-SD24: Tom Sherman http://tomsherman.us
NY-SD07: Anna Kaplan https://annafornysenate.com
VA-HD08: Carter Turner https://turner4delegate.com
WI-SD11: Caleb Frostman https://www.calebfrostman.com
WI-SD17: Kriss Marion https://www.krissforwisconsin.com
WI-SD19: Lee Snodgrass http://snodgrass4senate.com

MISC State Races
AZ Secretary of State: Katie Hobbs http://katiehobbs.org
CO Secretary of State: Jena Griswold https://www.jenaforcolorado.com
IA Secretary of State: Diedre DeJear https://www.dejearforiowa.com
FL Attorney General: Eventual Nominee
MI Attorney General: Dana Nessel https://www.dana2018.com
MI Secretary of State: Joselyn Bensen https://votebenson.com/
MI State Supreme Court Megan Cavangh https://www.cavanaghforsupremecourt.com
MI State Supreme Court Samuel Bagenstos https://www.bagenstosforjustice.com/
NC State Supreme Court: Anita Earls https://earls4justice.com
NV Secretary of State: Nelson Araujo http://nelsonaraujonv.com
NY Attorney General: Eventual Nominee
OH Secretary of State: Kathleen Clyde https://www.kathleenclyde.com
OH State Auditor: Zack Space https://www.zackspaceforohio.com
TX Attorney General: Justin Nelson https://www.nelsonfortexas.com


STATE BALLOT MEASURES
CO: Fair Maps (Y and Z) http://fairmapscolorado.com
FL: Amendment Four to Restore Voting Rights to Released Felons https://secondchancesfl.org
ID: Medicaid Expansion https://www.reclaimidaho.org
MI: $12/hour Minimum Wage http://onefairwage.com
MI: Paid Sick Leave https://mitimetocare.org
MI: Promote the Vote https:/https://mitimetocare.org
MI: Voters Not Politicians https://www.votersnotpoliticians.com
MO: Clean Missouri https://www.cleanmissouri.org
NE: Medicaid Expansion https://www.insurethegoodlife.com
UT: Better Boundaries http://fairmapscolorado.com

[OnDoutside]

1. Great post, Randy. I've bookmarked it.

[JaneQPublic]

2. Me, too. (nt)

[Cha]

9. Isn't it an awesome OP from RSF? Good idea..

Bookmarking!

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Outside the House net, I'm most nervous about the two here in Florida

Governor and senator

We desperately need some good news here. Primaries are the end of the month. Everybody knows the senate race is tight but the nominees a formality. Both gov nominations are contested. Currently Graham leads polling against DeSantis but trails narrowly to Putnam:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/Florida.html

[RandySF]

6. They're both on the list.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. I appreciate it, and high on the list

We've had Republican governors for 20 years and I'm sick of it

On edit: okay I see the lists are alphabetized by state, not ranked. No matter

[PaulX2]

4. Add WA-05 Too

Kathy is going down.

[Journeyman]

5. K & R . . .

Thanks.

[Cha]

8. You are Amazing, RSF! Mahalo for

getting this info all Together!

[quakerboy]

10. I'd add OR gov

I think that one is sitting a lot closer than people realize. Having both Gov and SOS in R hands would be an invitation to try and corrupt the electoral process.

[RandySF]

15. Added.

[dawg]

11. Kick!

What a useful post. It should be pinned.

[SharonClark]

12. Glad you listed 2 Iowa House seats. I'd add Iowa governor.

Thanks for the succinct list.

[Hawaii Hiker]

13. Great post

Thanks for sharing!.

[Wounded Bear]

14. K & R...for visibility...

[BumRushDaShow]

16. You forgot a biggie - PA (you exclude all of the PA ones???)

GOVERNOR
PA-GOV: Tom Wolf https://www.wolfforpa.com/

U.S. HOUSE
PA-01: Scott Wallace https://www.scottwallacepa.com/
PA-05: Mary Gay Scanlon https://www.scanlonforcongress.com/
PA-06: Chrissy Houlahan https://www.chrissyhoulahanforcongress.com/
PA-07: Susan Wild https://wildforcongress.com/
PA-10: George Scott https://georgescott4congress.com/
PA-14: Conor Lamb https://conorlamb.com/

The congressional seats were re-drawn in March after the GOP gerrymandering was thrown out by the PA state Supreme Court.

(there are 2 (R) seats in the Philly 'burbs that were deemed slam-dunk (D) in the new configuration - PA-05 & PA-06 & none of the 5 current (D) seats are under threat)

[RandySF]

33. I chose House races on the knife's edge

Last edited Mon Aug 20, 2018, 10:37 PM - Edit history (2)

The PA races in 5,6 abd 7 are in good shape, PA-01 not so much.

[BumRushDaShow]

35. PA-01 used to be PA-08

which used to be Patrick Murphy's (D) seat after the 2006 & 2008 elections (Murphy & Fattah from the old PA-02 were the only 2 Congressman in PA who endorsed Barack Obama in 2008 primaries). The way PA-01 is now configured when the district was re-drawn, means it is potentially flippable moreso than before (it includes just a bit more of Montgomery County as I understand), but it is razor's edge. And Conor Lamb is running in a different district now than he ran for before the map was redrawn (and essentially one that he was not a resident of), so it is crucial that there be GOTV in the new PA-14.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

17. Why did Maine's governor race not make the list?

We could either have another tea party Republican like LePage (although Moody is way less offensive) or the first female Maine governor. She's the Democrat and currently the attorney general. She's had a lot of run ins with LePage. Getting a Democratic governor would be better for the state because the Democrat would implement the Medicaid expansion the people voted for and also work towards fully implementing ranked choice voting for all Maine State election elections.

Also Maine has a ballot initiative for home health care. If passed, Maine would be the first state to ensure all elderly and disabled people have access to home health care.

[LAS14]

19. I hope it didn't make the list because it's not going to be a close race.

But I don't know whether it is or not. What were the criteria used to develop this list? Because LePage sure does qualify as terribly, horribly, no good, awful.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

20. It is a close race

And we are at risk of losing because there are two independents running as well. This is not a ranked choice race. Republicans have been dragging their feet on ranked choice and because of them we cannot use ranked choice in our general election governor race, general election state house races, and general election state Senate races.

Article from 8/8/18

https://www.pressherald.com/2018/08/08/new-poll-shows-2018-race-for-maine-governors-office-in-virtual-dead-heat/

New poll shows 2018 race for Maine governors office in virtual dead heat

[LAS14]

25. Drat! That's how LePage got in in the first place! Summer place in Maine. That's...

... why I know something but not a lot.

[RandySF]

34. I chose the gov races based on their impact on redistricting

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

21. LePage is termed out at least

But the Republican running, Moody, basically agrees with all of LePage's stances and promises more of the same. Moody isn't wicked offensive/abrasive like LePage. At least that is an improvement, but then again, he is more likely to win because he seems like a nice guy. He's a nice guy with bad ideas. People are definitely tired of LePage's behavior. Anyone acting like that would lose I think.

[RandySF]

44. Maine added

[LAS14]

18. K & R !!!! Thanks!!!

[NewJeffCT]

22. Great list - I'd add one more to it

I'd also add CT Governor to your list. Highly unpopular Democrat Dan Malloy is stepping down after 8 years, so the Republican is probably a slight favorite to win.

Ned Lamont won the Democratic primary overwhelmingly against Joe Ganim, the Mayor of Bridgeport.

Lamont gained notoriety in 2006 for beating Joe Lieberman in the Democratic primary as an anti-Iraq War candidate. However, CT does not have a "sore loser" law and have Lieberman become an independent, got onto the ballot and received a huge amount of Republican votes to win the general election.

https://www.nedlamont.com/

[Bengus81]

23. Dem James Thompson running against Ron rubber stamp Estes in Kansas US House 4....

That's no "already decided" race by any means. Thompson has challenged Estes to a debate in all 17 counties that district represents and he won't respond.

Hell a guy goofing around named Ron M. Estes ran in the primary and got almost 20% of the vote and never even campaigned.

[lpbk2713]

24. Thank you for the comprehensive list.

Bookmarking for future reference.

[smirkymonkey]

26. Thank you Randy!

K&R and bookmarked. Very useful.

[MBS]

27. I'd add two more:

Beto vs Cruz in Texas Senate race
Janz vs Nunes in CA 22nd

I have particularly high hopes for Beto. There's real energy there, and, so far, Beto hasn't put a foot wrong.
Janz seems to be gaining; if he could somehow pull off a miracle and take Nunes down, he would be doing the country a national service.

[Stuart G]

28. Thank You Randy, and Thank You MBS..Bookmarking this..

[Garrett78]

31. Those 2 came to mind for me when I skimmed the list.

Knocking out Nunes and Cruz would be huge. Defeating Nunes may not be necessary for taking control of the House, but I would think defeating Cruz is necessary for taking control of the Senate.

[jmowreader]

36. Even if we could take the Senate without Cruz's seat, getting rid of him is very important

Even if we had a veto-proof majority in the Senate and the House, removing Ted Cruz from the Senate is important. He is that bad.

[Persondem]

29. Thank you for putting this list together. K & R nt

[LAS14]

30. Here's more detail for senate races.

I checked out RealClearPolitics when we got a new e-mail from Bill Nelson. So we're going to give to NDRC (National Democratic Redistricting Committee - Obama/Holder) and Nelson, McCaskill, Heitcamp, Rosen and Bredesen. No dangerous house races here in Massachusetts that I know of. Maine??? New Hampshire???

U.S. SENATE
AZ-SEN: Kyrsten Sinema https://kyrstensinema.com/ Sinema (D) 46.8 - Ward (R) 36
FL-SEN: Bill Nelson https://www.nelsonforsenate.com Nelson 45.3, 44.3
IN-SEN: Joe Donnelly https://joeforindiana.com Donnely by 10 pts
MO-SEN: Claire McCaskill https://clairemccaskill.com R 46 - D 45.8
ND-SEN: Heidi Heitkamp https://heidifornorthdakota.com R 44 - D 43.5
NV-SEN: Jacky Rosen https://www.rosenfornevada.com R 40.7 - D 41.3
TN-SEN: Phil Bredesen https://www.bredesen.com R 42.7 - D 44.3
WV-SEN: Joe Manchin https://joemanchinwv.com/ R 49.3 - D 42.3

[Scurrilous]

32. K&R

[grantcart]

37. Great list, great work you deserve a raise

It boils down to just two:

Speaker of the House
Majority Leader of the Senate which of course summarize your second and third groups.

[brooklynite]

38. What's the basis for your selection?

I've built a data model for selecting candidates.

[RandySF]

39. Updated to include ballot initiative links.

[Bengus81]

40. The Gov race in Kansas isn't "important"? Full blown RACIST in KKKobach..........

He's a RACIST that makes Trump look like mother Teresa and wants to make sure "certain" people are always stopped from voting here and other States.

He's also promised to get us back to the Brownback ZERO % State income tax rates for Corporations. That tinkle down almost BK Kansas and put us nearly a BILLION in debt. He said he'll make it work this time around because of MASSIVE cuts that Brownback didn't do. That means even larger cuts for schools,roads,programs for those who most need them,and of course like Brownback NO PROBLEM raising the State sales tax again and again--all for his Corporate buddies and the multi-millionaire who would be his Lt Gov.

Kansas is one of the few States that not only has FULL sales tax on unprepared food,we had TWO increases on our State sales tax under Brownback.

This race is probably one of the MOST important Gov races in the US..........

[JonLP24]

41. I voted for Deedra Abboud

The primary isn't over yet.

https://www.deedra2018.com/about

[RandySF]

42. Sinema is going to win the primary.

[JonLP24]

43. Probably

The primary is August 28th. Just wanted to introduce another option.

[RandySF]

45. Updated to add FL and AZ governor races.

[RandySF]

46. Kicked for Visibility