From Dan Quayle to Sarah Palin to Mini-Mitt: What the Veep Choice Will Reveal
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If he does what most of the pundits expect and picks Rob Portman, the junior Senator from Ohio, or Tim Pawlenty, the former Governor of Minnesota, it indicates that the Mittster, despite all the polls, remains fairly confident of victory. Both Portman and Pawlenty are mini-Mitts: moderate, non-ideological technocrats who hardly set the pulses racing. Portman is justifiably the favorite, because he could conceivably help swing Ohio in Romney’s favor, which would be huge. But as Nate Silver pointed out yesterday, Portman’s popularity ratings in Ohio are unimpressive, and his impact on voting patterns there is likely to be small. Outside of the Buckeye state, Portman is practically unknown, and it’s hard to conceive of him having any impact at all. Which means it only make sense for Romney to pick him if he believes he’s already running strong nationally, and a little lift in Ohio could put him over the top.
Other names often mentioned as having a decent chance are Congressman Paul Ryan (whom Ryan Lizza wrote about in the magazine last week) and Senator Marco Rubio (whom Ken Auletta wrote about in January). If Romney picks either of them it will suggest he thinks his campaign is in trouble and he needs to shake things up. Either Ryan or Rubio would energize the G.O.P.’s conservative base. With support from the Tea Party and from socially conservative hispanics, Rubio could also help Romney carry Florida, although there’s quite a bit of debate about how much sway he really has with non-Cuban Latinos. But picking either Ryan or Rubio would be a big gamble. Rubio has résumé issues, such as the changing story of how his parents arrived in America. Ryan wants to privatize Medicare, at least partly.
Then there is a quartet of governors who could possibly be chosen—Chris Christie (New Jersey), Nikki Haley (South Carolina), Bobby Jindal (Louisiana), and Bob McDonnell (Virginia)—plus any number of others, including, I suppose, General David Petraeus, whose name Matt Drudge has been bandying around. Picking any of these lot would represent a Hail Mary pass. Christie, Haley, and McDonnell have all been in office for less than three years, and all three are untested on the national stage. When Jindal got a chance to appear on that stage, presenting the rebuttal to President Obama’s first State of the Union speech, he muffed it. Petraeus, who is currently running the C.I.A., might well turn down the offer.
If I were making the choice, since I think the Romney campaign is in serious bother, I would take a punt on Rubio or Christie, hoping that it would alter the dynamics. Both of them are good speakers who revel in attacking Democrats and geeing up Republican activists. The selection of either would add a bit of spice to the race, and by taking the media spotlight off Romney for a while it could do him a big favor. Since Florida is so important—the Electoral College math is such that it’s hard to see how Romney can be elected if he doesn’t come out on top there—I’d probably end up going with Rubio.
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