Is the Andrew Gillum Governor race a referendum on trump and the republican agenda? Would that be a

[still_one]

fair way to evaluate this race?

I honestly am not sure.

If Florida is considered a swing state, I would be inclined to say yes.

So my question, is Florida considered a swing state today?

[underthematrix]

1. I think it's a referendum on the sewage trying to destroy our government.

[still_one]

3. No doubt trump and the republican party are trying to destroy the government, but whether it is a

fair referendum I think depends on whether Florida is considered a red state or a swing state today, and to be honest I am not sure if it is a red state or a swing state.

[underthematrix]

5. It's called a swing state because Bush won it in 2004

and PBO won it in 2008 and 2012 but the state has been Republican for 24 years.

[ProudLib72]

4. I think it may be a referendum on status quo Dem campaigning strategies

Screw reaching out and concentrate on GOTV for Dem voters. I am very curious how this strategy will play out in the general.

[still_one]

7. I think you are right that it would be a measure of Democratic campaigning strategies, perhaps in a

similar way to Howard Dean's 50-state strategy, and I think it is a very important component as to whether Democrats win or lose in the future.

but I think in order to be a fair measure today the ideal starting point environment would be a swing state, not a hard right red state. Even a so-called purple state would shed light on an effective strategy. A hard right red state is a much longer process to break through

[Burgie]

6. Partly

Gillum has his own appeal. He is liked my millennials and Democrats in general because of his sane policy proposals.

[still_one]

8. Absollutely. I remember when Florida actual was a blue state. I think we have a great chance for

the reason you gave if it is considered a swing or even a purple state. I would like to think it isn't a hard right red state, and the demographics should don't indicate such.

Getting out the votes is going to be critical

[Garrett78]

9. Florida has been decided by fewer than 6 points in each of the last 7 presidential elections.

And by less than 3 points in 5 of those 7. So, it's most definitely a swing/purple state in presidential election years. It tends to be more red in mid-term years.

It's also a state with a long history of race-based voter suppression.

Is the Florida gubernatorial race largely a referendum on Trump? Sure. As are most races, especially those featuring a Trump acolyte. Trump's endorsement has carried a lot of weight this primary season, and we can only hope that proves to be beneficial for us.

Oklahoma and Kansas aren't swing states, but their respective gubernatorial races are in play. The same goes for Georgia and Arizona, states that may be on their way to becoming swing states.

What all 5 of those states have in common is that the Republican candidate is a strong supporter of Trump, whereas that isn't the case in Maryland, for instance.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Definitely a swing state

A swing state is best defined by an electorate that is very close to the national average in ideology during presidential years. Florida certainly qualifies every time.

In 2016 the national breakdown was 35% self-identified conservatives and 26% self-identified liberals. The Florida breakdown was 36% conservatives and 25% liberals.

So it is a slightly red state. That has been true for decades, both in the ideological breakdown and the popular vote. However, the popular vote slipped further away from the national average in 2016 since the nation voted for Hillary by 2.1% while Florida was Trump by 1.2%.

That is a red slant by 3.3%. In 2012 the red partisan index was very close to the same at 3.0% -- Obama winning nationally by 3.9% while carrying Florida by .9%

However, like many states Florida is normally more red in midterms than in presidential years. Part of that is the high number of older voters who vote Republican and vote dependably, whether it is midterm or presidential year.

[still_one]

11. Thanks, I am glad to hear that. I think we have an excellent chance to start taking back Florida