I think Cynthia Nixon is going to surprise everyone in the NY Governor's race.

[kentuck]

She may not win but she will come very, very close.

There is a movement going on within the Democratic Party. It would be unwise to overlook what is happening, in places like NY, FL, TX, and other places.

The political reality is that the Democratic Party is changing. We can accept and grow with the change or we can resist? We should accept it as growing the Party. The Republicans will attempt to portray it as "socialism" but that should surprise no one.

Very few are giving Cynthia Nixon even a long shot at defeating Andrew Cuomo but we should not overlook the desire for change in Washington. No professional politician is safe in this environment.

[AlexSFCA]

1. it would not surprise me if she wins

but I don’t think things are that bad in NY to warrant a change. I consider Cuomo a progressive liberal democrat. I’m afraid if Nixon wins and some employers decide to leave the state, it won’t look good for democrats.

[NCTraveler]

2. People see what they want to see.

Is what's going on in Florida Gillum winning a primary or Charlie Christ becoming a Democrat and holding a house seat? Is it Gillum winning a primary or Grayson getting stomped in the primary? Bill Nelson wasn't even challenged.

I'm not sure people talking about Florida know the first thing about Florida.

[kentuck]

5. Gillum shocked a lot of people.

It would be a shock to the Democratic Party if Cynthia Nixon were to win in NY.

[NCTraveler]

6. I don't think a lot of people in Florida are all that shocked.

The national media sure feigned hyperventilation. No doubt it looked like Graham was going to win. Polls had it much closer in the last week with a huge surge showing for Gillum.

My point stands. How did Grayson not win with this great shift? How is Charlie a house member with this great shift? Gillum ran a great campaign. He didn't win because of some shift. There was no "establishment" candidate running. It was truly open.

Florida Democratic primary results do not match the trend you envision. it's easy to see a trend when ninety percent of the information is ignored.

HD1 Zimmerman beat Ehr
HD2 Rackleff beat Peters
HD3 Hinson beat Wells and Gosai
HD4 Selmont was uncontested
HD5 Lawson beat Brown
HD6 Soderberg beat Upchruch and Sevigny
HD7 Murphy beat Richardson
HD8 Patel was uncontested
HD9 Soto beat Grayson
HD10 Demings beat Darius
HD11 Cottrell was uncontested
HD12Hunter beat Perenich and Tager
HD13 Crist was uncontested
HD14 Castor was uncontested
HD15 Carlson beat Learned and Pena
HD16 Shapiro beat Schneider
HD17 Freeman beat Pollard
HD18 Baer beat Keith
HD19 Holden beat Truax
HD20 Hastings beat McCormick
HD21 Frankel was uncontested
HD22 Duetch beat Fandl
HD23 DWS uncontested
HD24 Wilson beat DeLaFuente
HD25 Flores was uncontested
HD26 Powell beat Grimes
HD27 Shalala beat Richardson and Gonzalez

[KPN]

8. Grayson has shown himself to be loose cannon

and show-boater (not unlike the Orange onein some regards) for far too many Democrats. Not s big surprise.

[NCTraveler]

9. He is a darling of the "left".

That's not really in question. You are being kind by calling him a "show-boater".

[KPN]

12. Not with me. I'm pretty far left based on

what i’ve seen in this forum. But you seem to know a lot more about FL dynamics than I do — so i’ll defer to your overall opinion. I just don’t like Grayson’s style and don’t really trust him. He comes across like a talking head. As for Gillum, I’m sure he did run an awesome campaign based on what I saw of him yesterday in a Chuck Todd interview. Chuckie tried several times to cross him up but Gillum handled him deftly. He’s definitely looking like a rising star in our party.

[NCTraveler]

15. And this is what I mean.

I greatly appreciate your comment.

"I’m sure he did run an awesome campaign based on what I saw of him yesterday in a Chuck Todd interview."

Just about every single poster on this board is in that same boat. One poster had three ops on Gillum yesterday, clearly trying to start something. They had never posted an op about him before. Not once.

There was no incumbent running for the seat. All of the candidates were very well funded and were able to blanket the state. None of the candidates were "establishment". What a lot of people did think was that the name Graham would be enough to win. That name has a seriously positive impact among Democrats in the state. What they missed, including myself, was that anyone under the age of forty doesn't really know who her father is.

[Pacifist Patriot]

25. Last sentence is dead on.

[OriginalGeek]

32. that last sentence is why I voted for her in the primary

I'm in my 50s and I remember.

But seeing Mr. Gillum since election day in interviews and online I can absolutely say I am excited to vote for him for Governor come November.

[Pacifist Patriot]

44. Same here

Well okay, I'm not "in my 50s" until November, but close enough.

[OriginalGeek]

48. come on in!

the water's fine.

[KPN]

49. Sounds like you've got it dialed in. Thx.

[Pacifist Patriot]

26. I don't think Dems in Florida were shocked. National press perhaps...

But Dems in Florida? Nope.

[StevieM]

39. Gillum was a Clinton supporter in the primaries, whose base of support was Clinton voters. (eom)

[tinrobot]

3. Perhaps, but more because of Cuomo's missteps than anything.

I don't think she's all that great, but his "you are a corporation" tactic in the debate was pretty painful to watch.

If she gets close it is because he's letting her.

[NurseJackie]

4. ...

[Me.]

7. I Don't Know If You're Right

But I will say this...the subways are in crisis mode and nothing effective is being done or even attempted and she is nailing him on this and it could be where he loses a lot of votes.

[Burgie]

11. Cuomo polls better in NYC than in upstate

Subways are not near the top of voters concerns.

[Me.]

24. True

But who votes may be the deciding issue

19.85 million residents in NYS

Almost half of the residents of the state live in New York City, which has an estimated population of 8,550,405 people

worldpopulationreview.com/states/new-york-population/cities/

[Burgie]

10. My forecast: Cuomo by 25%

Or more.

[PDittie]

13. LOL

[Burgie]

14. I don't get your LOL

What will the margin be approximately? In your opinion.

[PDittie]

16. Considerably less than

what you think.

[MineralMan]

17. We'll see, won't we?

I don't vote in NY.

[Burgie]

18. LMAO

there.

[PDittie]

20. You forgot the F

You're not really a newbie around here, are you?

[Squinch]

22. I agree. And welcome.

[Caliman73]

19. You do know that Washington is not at stake in this election right?

Nixon and Cuomo are running for Governor of New York State. What people want in Washington is not relevant. What the people of the state of New York want is important.

That said, the pendulum always swings from progressive populism to moderate within the Democratic Party. We may well be seeing that swing. That said, I don't think that Nixon will win, but I do think that the Democratic Party certainly needs to accept progressive ideas and promote them wholeheartedly.

Also, not that I have anything terribly against socialism, but we need to hit the Republicans back on that. What the Democratic Party in its most progressive policies is promoting is nowhere near socialism. There is NO talk whatsoever about the State controlling the means of production and distribution. The Democratic Party simply believes that the government needs to act in certain situations to protect the vulnerable from the excesses of a market based system. That is not Socialism that is the normal function of a government within a Keynesan economic framework.

[NCTraveler]

21. Very thoughtful. Nt

[Power 2 the People]

27. Great post Caiman73

[R B Garr]

23. I heard she was accusing him of being corrupt

and all the other hyper insults we’ve seen slung around for awhile now. Such shallowness, especially when you consider they don’t like being insulted themselves. Such contrived superiority with no record to speak of herself.

[DinahMoeHum]

28. Sorry, but Nixon is no Andrew Gillum. Not by a long shot.

She's a novice who doesn't understand that a state governorship is not an entry-level job.
And most especially not a big state like New York.

Gillum, OTOH, is a former Tallahassee city commissioner (representational) and current Mayor (executive) who has traveled and spoken all over Florida to various groups of everyday people.

Nixon is too NYC-centric and really doesn't relate well to people outside the college towns in upstate and western NY. Those votes won't be enough for contention, let alone winning, a primary, much less the general election.

And, AFAIC, the state senate races here in NY are far more important this year. That means primarying out the fake Democrats of the so-called Independent Democratic Caucus and replacing them with real, progressive Democrats that will turn the nominal majority they have in the state senate (by 1, I believe) into a real majority that can finally get bills passed that have languished in their chambers for way too long.

http://www.noidcny.org/

And, if necessary, we/they will frog-march Cuomo to the desk to sign these bills into law.

[JustAnotherGen]

31. +1 Spoke with my mom this a.m.

She's up in Rochester (where I was raised/lived for 25 years) - post the debate her thoughts -

Her heart is in the right place.
She wouldn't know a bobcat if it bit her . . .
The idea of her shoveling her roof is probably 'insane' to her.

[mnhtnbb]

33. Governor as an entry level job didn't stop Reagan. Last I checked POTUS is now entry level

too. The mess being made by tRump is not because he's inexperienced (although that is part of it), it's because he's really a wannabe dictator.

It's getting more and more difficult to predict what the voters will do and which voters will turn out.

Nixon has some very appealing ideas. She's definitely a left of center Dem. I don't live in NY(even though I was born there) so I don't get to vote, but if I did I'd vote for her.

[DinahMoeHum]

34. In fairness, Reagan was a union president. . .

. . .(Screen Actors Guild) for over 10 years before going into politics. There's nothing comparable in Nixon's resume.

[mnhtnbb]

37. Yeah, but Reagan was a dummy. Just like tRump is a dummy.

Nixon is much smarter than both of them put together and her heart is also in the right place.

[DinahMoeHum]

38. Unfortunately, intelligence and heart are not enough

to win elections.

[mnhtnbb]

40. Maybe that's about to change.

We've all see what lack of intelligence and heart have done to the office of president.

[Jim Lane]

41. Nixon's campaign is helping your goal of primarying the IDC turncoats

I completely agree with you about the importance of the State Senate races. One problem is that a lot of voters don't. If both marquee races -- for Governor and Senator -- were essentially uncontested, then some people wouldn't bother to vote. (Yes, there's a contested primary for Attorney General, and that will help, but there's still work to be done.)

Nixon almost certainly won't beat Cuomo. Nevertheless, her candidacy will draw some additional progressive Democrats to the polls. Those folks will then be more likely to vote for the candidates challenging the IDC members.

[liberalnarb]

29. I hope so.

I'd love to see her win.

[Nanjeanne]

30. She won't win but I'm glad she's in the race talking about issues that need talking about. The more

Democrats engage in dialogue - the better. As an ex-NYer, I'm not a fan of Cuomo although I did like his father a lot. But Nixon makes the Democratic primary interesting and the more people who are engaged, the better always for democracy.

[leftynyc]

35. She's not going to win and she's not

going to come close. She's seen as a vanity candidate.

[Johonny]

42. Probably because she is a vanity candidate

[leftynyc]

46. +1000

The comparisons to the guy in Florida are moronic.

[book_worm]

36. She'll get about 35%

[brooklynite]

43. I'm planning to vote for Nixon.....

....certain in the knowledge that she won’t win.

[Tiggeroshii]

45. Sometimes they win or get close sometimes they kinda fizzle

It's all about how the campaign goes....

[JHan]

47. Hard to see her closing in on Cuomo's lead.

I don't understand why this race is being described as close.