TX-31: John Carter moves to Lean Republican
A new ALG Research poll for Democrat MJ Hegar's campaign shows her within four points of Carter, 46 percent to 42 percent, closing the deficit from nine last month. Republicans beg to differ, but it makes some sense considering Hegar has had the airwaves to herself the last few weeks with 30-second versions of her "Doors" ad that became a viral fundraising sensation over the summer.
Carter, 76, has been a fixture in local politics for decades, including as a judge. But he's never faced a competitive general election since winning this seat in 2002, and took an anemic 65 percent in this year's primary. And Austin's northern suburbs are moderating quickly. The 31st CD, which takes in Round Rock and part of Fort Hood, gave President Trump 53 percent in 2016 after giving Mitt Romney 60 percent in 2012.
Hegar, a search-and-rescue pilot, was awarded a Purple Heart and a Distinguished Flying Cross for valor after her helicopter was shot down and ambushed in Afghanistan in 2009. Hegar subsequently wrote a successful book, "Shoot Like a Girl," and got tattoos to cover her shrapnel wounds. Her ads detail how she sued the Defense Department to overturn a rule barring women from many combat positions.
Carter and Republicans will surely paint Hegar as a darling of Hollywood liberal elites (her life story is on the verge of being made into a movie starring Angelina Jolie), but will need to be careful to avoid appearing to attack her military service. Carter never served in uniform but will campaign on his advocacy for Fort Hood. Hegar's messaging head start and Carter's lack of preparedness may force Republicans to divert cash here.
MJ HEGAR
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-five-more-races-move-towards-democrats
https://www.mjfortexas.com