Democratic candidates lead Republicans by 11-points on the generic congressional ballot

[Miles Archer]

Kyle Griffin
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@kylegriffin1

Democratic candidates lead Republicans by 11-points on the generic congressional ballot, 53-42%, in the new WaPo/ABC poll.

Moderates favor Democrats by 30 points, triple the margin in 2014.

Independents favor Democrats 52-38%.

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[MineralMan]

1. Generic ballot polls are useless in predicting individual

congressional races, for obvious reasons. Whether we regain a majority in the house will depend on the results in individual districts.

[Loki Liesmith]

2. That's not true

They have significant predictive value. The correlation is very strong.

[Haynx]

5. In 2016 the generic poll error was 1.7%. Very good nt

[tazkcmo]

3. The problem with generic ballot polls

Is the same as the problem with Congressional approval polls. While a majority of people rate Congress low, they generally will rate their own Rep higher. Still, this generic polling is encouraging.

[Haynx]

4. It's 13% among likely voters

[edhopper]

6. Do they factor in

gerrymandering and voter suppression?