Repubs collapsing on 538. Down to 18 6

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

[NewsCenter28]

1. The House is ours!

Also, senate nowhere near lost yet imo!

[nycbos]

3. Do you want to tempt the wrath from high atop the thing?

[EndGOPPropaganda]

13. Right. Jeebus.

These are probabilistic models.
There’s always a small chance the GOP could win.

But more importantly: IT DOESNT MATTER. Our actions should be the same no matter what. Resist. Canvass. Call. Vote!

[lastlib]

30. Take friends with you to the polls!

LOTS of friends! Friends don't let friends vote repuglikan!

[Hekate]

14. Nooooo! That's what we thought about Hillary! Do not tempt Fate!

[budkin]

21. Nice Jinx

Watch us be short one seat.

[Blue_true]

25. Yeah, but please vote and tell everyone to vote.

I want to bury them.

[0rganism]

27. great! let's celebrate after the votes get counted

nice positive attitude you have there. i hope it translates into a lot of quality phone-bank time. see you next month.

[nycbos]

2. All the models had Hillary winning.

Take nothing for granted. Campaign like we are behind. GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV

[OrlandoDem2]

4. Preach! Political models don't vote! People vote! No complacency! Take nothing for granted!

[WhiteTara]

6. Welcome to DU

and vote early and take people with you.

[monmouth4]

5. And she did. n/t

[former9thward]

16. They had her winning electorally.

She didn't. 538 uses electoral votes in their model not popular votes.

[helpisontheway]

20. 538 warned us prior to the election that it was not

a slam dunk for Hillary. Nate said there was a possibility that she could win popular vote and lose electoral vote. He said the numbers had tightened in key states. People here got mad at Nate because everyone else was saying Trump could not win. I remember that I was kinda upset too because I wanted to believe what all the other people were saying.

[Awsi Dooger]

23. Nate Silver had almost everything correct in 2016

You can't make Trump the favorite. Nate should have been forced out of the country if he tried to pretend Donald Trump was more likely than not to win.

But given the numbers in hand Nate time after time provided the most astute explanation of why Hillary was in a somewhat fragile position. I remember one article in which he broke down Hillary's chances of electoral victory based on her margin in the popular vote. That's when I gulped because it was so shocking. He had Hillary with less than a 10% chance of winning the electoral college if her popular vote margin was between 0-1 point. It was well below 50% at 1-2 points also.

Here is an article from a few days before election day in which Nate described the landscape:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-clintons-position-is-worse-than-obamas/

"To illustrate this, let’s compare Clinton’s current position in our polls-plus forecast1 — which gives her a 65 percent chance of winning the Electoral College — to FiveThirtyEight’s final election forecast in 2012, which gave President Obama a 91 percent chance. How could the model be so much more confident in Obama’s chances than in Clinton’s, even though we projected he’d win by 2.5 percentage points nationally and she’s ahead by 2.8? Part of it is because there are far more undecided and third-party voters this year, which could lead to a last-minute swing, or a polling error, and makes the model more cautious.2 But Obama’s and Clinton’s chances of winning the popular vote are relatively similar in our forecasts (76 percent for Clinton now, 86 percent for Obama then) despite that. The difference comes mostly in the Electoral College."

[Awsi Dooger]

31. High number of undecideds worked in Trump's favor

That was another aspect that Nate emphasized repeatedly: People were focusing on Hillary's theoretical margin over Trump while ignoring how low her poll numbers were in relation to 50% or above. Naturally with greater number of undecideds there is more room for a late shift one way or another.

Gore in 2000 overtook Bush in the popular vote despite trailing in the polls partially because that election also had higher number of late undecideds than typical, although well below the 2016 number of undecideds.

Here is a chart that 538 published before election day in 2016:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/

FINAL NATIONAL POLLING AVERAGE
YEAR DEM CANDIDATE GOP CANDIDATE UNDECIDED/OTHER

2000 Gore 43.6 Bush 46.8 Undecided/other 9.6%
2004 Kerry 47.4 Bush 48.9 Undecided/other 3.7
2008 Obama 52.1 McCain 44.5 Undecided/other 3.4
2012 Obama 48.8 Romney 48.1 Undecided/other 3.1
2016 Clinton 45.7 Trump 41.8 Undecided/other 12.5

[grantcart]

7. 538 had popular vote Hillary + 2.8 and she won 2.1 very accurate

And yes GOTV

Yesterday I spent 6 hours knocking on doors.

[volstork]

12. Yep.

I’m frankly scared shitless...

GOTV!! It’s the only thing that will save us.

[amb123]

22. KNOCK KNOCK KNOCK KNOCK

LITERATURE LITERATURE LITERATURE LITERATURE
MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY

So we can WIN WIN WIN WIN!

[lastlib]

33. (you left out "VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!")

THEN we can WIN WIN WIN WIN!

"VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!" is the key!

[Loki Liesmith]

26. Nate's model gave Trump good odds

[Neema]

35. This. We ARE ALWAYS BEHIND when the GOP is willing to cheat, hack, collude, suppress and whatever

else it takes to win (except of course, for having ideas that benefit the majority of Americans). We must absolutely overwhelm all that with votes. Nothing short of that will be enough.

[CousinIT]

8. Take NOTHING for granted. Donate, make calls, canvass, write postcards/letters, tweet and VOTE. n/t

[Permanut]

9. So the Russians only have to switch about, what, 40 races?

Piece of cake.

[pdsimdars]

10. Yes, but make sure the generatons above and below you vote in this election. Vigilance

[Dopers_Greed]

11. Looks like the Kavanaugh bump is wearing off

GOTV!

We can defeat them, but we have to vote.

[The Conductor]

15. The only poll that counts...

Is the one where you mark a ballot! Vote! Everyone... No excuses!

In many states, your employer is even required to give you time off to get to the polls, which many people don't realize.

Let's show them that these polls predicting Democratic victory are dead wrong. If we get everyone to vote, it won't be a blue wave, but a blue tsunami. Not just a victory, but a blowout so big the Russian vote switchers will freaking short out.

Vote!

[dflprincess]

24. And what matters then is who counts the votes. nt

[CountAllVotes]

37. Correct!

That is why we must be certain that EVERY vote is counted!

Check your registration status to be certain.

It is easy enough to do.

Can be done online via your country's voter registration office and many other places as well!

CountAllVotes !!

[Honeycombe8]

17. I'll take good news where I can get it! Yeee-hah!

But stay focused, Dems! Pride cometh before the fall!

[diva77]

18. It's mind-boggling how many coastal districts are RED!!! How long can they continue to

deny climate change??? Are they not experiencing the effects while conscious???

[Auggie]

19. Don't count yer chickens ...

ya know?

[Garrett78]

28. It looks like 538 is saying 227-208 is most likely.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. 32 seat pickup would be sweet.

[Garrett78]

34. It would. I'm hoping for more, of course. Keeping the Senate at 51-49 would be a victory.

[Awsi Dooger]

36. That's my goal for the senate

Just keep the numbers where they are, enabling occasional pivotal votes where we avoid defeat, and setting things up for control in 2020 or 2022, which are more favorable cycles.

[getagrip_already]

29. remember, the only people arrested for voting multiple times...

were trump supporters. There are states where they will get away with it.

[Scruffy1]

38. Fivethirty eight had it about the same number about a month ago.

Polls go up and down like markets. I personally think polls are only a rough indicator, but the only one we have. The only thing that's a big question mark is new registrations and turn out. As the spammers have taken over the cell phones it gets harder and harder to do polls because majority do not answer strange phone calls. I know here in Minnesota, where we don't have t worry about voter suppression or vote theft we are likely to lose two Democratic house seats, one of which is historically Democratic and the other not so much because of incumbants leaving. We will pick up 2 Republican held seats. The key is the candidate. I'm actually hoping that the polls are slightly in error because I've seen a big increase in new voter registration and the polls are usually only done on likely voters. In the 2010 debacle we simply did not get the voters to come out, but this year I've see a whole lot more energy. I'm still hoping we can put one more seat up.

[Takket]

39. Senate........

the "post kavanaugh rage" should start filtering through the polls in the coming week. i will be curious to see if there is any kind of move in the senate races as a result.

[edbermac]

40. Polls don't mean SHIT.

The only 'poll' that counts is November 6th.

Get out and VOTE!

[Lugnut]

41. Good! n/t

[oasis]

42. In popping champagne early.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. That might not be prudent. There is a difference between confidence and hubris.

[Scurrilous]

43. K&R

[LBM20]

44. GOTV GOTV GOTV VOTE VOTE VOTE!! Take NOTHING for granted!