The 2016 national exit poll was 36% conservatives and 27% liberals. I know I refer to this category all the time but I do so because it is immensely instructive, and tends to obliterate polling and subjectivity.
Last night in 6 major governor races among states that flipped from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016, we lost all 3 -- Iowa, Ohio, Florida -- in states where the 2016 presidential exit poll had a gap of greater than that 9% national number between liberals and conservatives.
Florida had an 11% gap (36-25) in 2016 , while Ohio was 19% (39-20), and Iowa was 17% (40-23).
Now the good part. As I've mentioned here and elsewhere, the exit poll ideological breakdown in other 2016 upset states was not too bad. It was more of short term betrayal than abandonment or meaningful shift.
Consequently, we won governorships last night in states that had equal to or less than that 9% gap in 2016. Those states essentially wanted to vote our way and were saying try again, but this time give us some love.
We won governorships in Michigan (36-27 in 2016), Pennsylvania (33-27), and Wisconsin (34-25).
Sometimes the simple stuff wins. In Las Vegas I discovered I needed mathematical and systematic crutches like that, so I wasn't always scrambling for subjective decisions.
I still say we should have won Florida. As you can see, at 11% gap it was much more available than Iowa or Ohio, and we had a candidate to candidate edge, at least theoretically.
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