75% of Florida voters were aged 45+

[Awsi Dooger]

By far the oldest electorate of any state that was exit polled. It was obvious from Marc Caputo's daily updates during early voting that older white voters in Florida were showing up at excessive levels while younger voters were only modestly breaking their prior norms, in comparison.

Georgia is interesting, tying Montana and North Dakota at 60% for second lowest behind Nevada's lead at 59%. I've noted previously Georgia is always a younger electorate. In 2014 only 63% in Georgia were 45+ and in presidential year 2016 dropped all the way to 54%. That 54% should be evidence that midterm electorates always trend the other way, no matter who represents us and what we attempt. Abrams would have won if she had the age distribution of 2016 Georgia.

Likewise with Beto in Texas. The 61% in Texas looks good until you realize it was all the way down to 53% in 2016, when Hillary lost to Trump by 9% in Texas.

Nevada hasn't been exit polled in a midterm since 2010 but the 59% is terrific and not much of a dropoff from the 55% in presidential year 2016. I remember when a Nevada midterm used to be close to 70% in this category.

Young voters showed up just enough and put Tester over the top.

North Dakota is very odd in that 18-29 and 65+ favored Heitkamp by the same margin (51-49) but she got clobbered by everyone in the middle age brackets. That 51-49 edge among 18-29 is horrendous and indicates that Heitkamp never had a chance, despite a younger electorate overall. We've got nothing in North Dakota if young voters are evenly split. Nationally we led 67-32 with that age bracket.

I'm still checking numbers, trying to get a feel for what happened in Florida and what is trending elsewhere.

Here are the breakdowns by state in that category, percentage of voters aged 45+. The national mark was 65%. I included every state that was exit polled by CNN:

* Arizona: 66%
* California 63%
* Florida 75%
* Georgia 60%
* Indiana 67%
* Michigan 64%
* Minnesota 71%
* Mississippi 69%
* Missouri 64%
* Montana 60%
* Nevada 59%
* New Jersey 63%
* New York 62%
* North Dakota 60%
* Ohio 70%
* Pennsylvania 66%
* Tennessee 69%
* Texas 61%
* Virginia 65%
* West Virginia 68%
* Wisconsin 66%

[manor321]

1. It's disgusting and sickening to see young people not voting

An authoritarian fascist is in power, aided by his criminal party, and young people sit on their hands.

School shootings are now a standard part of life, and still they sit on their hands.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Apparently younger voters need the one-on-one aspect

Following politics just enough to pick a side among two, and compare notes with friends.

I have seen studies along those lines. The notion of governing and what each party actually stands for is mostly a blur, which is why they don't prioritize midterms.

[SubjectTrip]

4. Some perspective for you

More than 3.3 million voters for the 18-29 age group voted early — a 188 percent increase from 2014. In battleground states, youth turnout was even higher: in Texas and Georgia, early turnout by 18-29 year olds was up by 500 percent in the days before the election.

But by all means, carry on. Keep dragging those dang nab millennials.

[msongs]

5. that's the biggest group, equal to or more than boomers. if they'd vote in % like

boomers they might get a better future.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. I noticed you didn't dispute any of the numbers

I won't dispute yours

A football team can practice all summer and pretend it is doing great...until it lines up against another football team that has made even more progress. Turnout is never as meaningful as raw preference for our side in midterms because bottom line our voting blocks are not going to show up. When independents are slanting our way, we win. When independents are tilting the other way like 1994 or 2010 or 2014 then it is a disaster because our base especially younger women can't be bothered to vote.

Registration drives have been my top priority for 2 years. I wish Tom Steyer had funded college campus registration drives from the outset and ignored the $100 million he wasted on impeachment advertising.

Millennials are terrific and will dictate political races beginning in a decade or two. Right now it is mostly an investment and we can't pretend it will pay full dividends immediately.

My Predictit bankroll seems to be faring well. No defeats since joining. I think I'll stick with my approach, and my numbers.

[still_one]

7. Patterns don't turn on a dime. The number of young people that voted was a huge increase as you

pointed out, and I believe that will only get better.

We will see, but I believe that republicans over played their hand, and the future of their party is in trouble. The changing demographics are not with them. From age, gender, to the changing racial makeup of the country, the trend is obvious. The party which has a large tent will prevail.


In 2020 the republicans have a large number of Senate seats to defend for re-election verses the democrats. The exact opposite of what it was for the midterms.

While the electoral college does present challenges to us with the Presidential election, the fact that we gained some significant Governor and Senate races in the midterms indicate the dynamics are moving in our direction.


Howard Dean's 50 state strategy will make it so, along with what I believe will be an exciting group of Democratic candidates in 2020 verses the republicans

[octoberlib]

17. It's not just millennials, younger voters of prior generations didn't show up for mid-terms either.

I was in college in the 80's and it was the same way.

[crazycatlady]

11. today's young voters have similar turnout to previous generations at the same age

But keep shitting on them.

[Awsi Dooger]

2. I should have mentioned that Florida was 60% in this category during 2016

That is ridiculous. You can't have a 15% shift in two years from presidential year to midterm. As I've noted, states always have a change to older electorate in midterms but the typical move is in the 7-9% range and sometimes lower, like Nevada only dropping 4%.

Republicans have their act together in Florida. I have seen it in my neighborhood. I knew it had to be attaching elsewhere in the state.

Tom Steyer should be pumping extra money into fortifying Florida, and soon, whether he wants to run for president or not. This is obviously an example of being outmaneuvered by the opponent, rather than not enough friendly voters period.

[LBM20]

8. And this is the FUCKING PROBLEM!! ALL younger voters need to GET OFF THEIR ASSES AND VOTE!!!

[Act_of_Reparation]

13. Right. All those old people voting for fascists are for totes normal.

[Funtatlaguy]

9. Would love to see the DNC form a full time youth targeted committee.

This would be a national team of 18-29 that works full time for the DNC.
They would be charged with coming up with ideas and plans to increase the youth vote.
They would then work with youth leaders in all of the states to execute that plan.
This needs to be an ongoing full time effort.

Would also like to see this done with Hispanics, as well.

[crazycatlady]

10. Look at the demographics of Florida

It is not a young state. I know (20 somethings or people who did this when they were 20 something) who moved to FL only to end up back home because the state does not offer much for young people (unless you are pursuing a career in health care or hospitality/tourism). My colleagues were talking about it last night about how it is not a great place for young adults.

My message to the Parkland kids (who graduated) would be to move elsewhere where there are more Gen Z voters to mobilize.

[Takket]

12. What % of the voting public is actually over 45?

[MiniMe]

14. Great question

[struggle4progress]

15. I'm gonna be a registered voter one of these days! hallelujah!

[Awsi Dooger]

16. This thread was mostly to point out the much older electorate in midterms

I know that because I follow the exit poll categories and splits every time.

Subjective types have no clue about that, far more often than not. I actually saw broadcasters and writers and posters insisting that Beto would change the electorate in Texas to younger than ever before.

There was no chance of that. It had to be older than 2016. The adjustments sound good but don't work. In Texas 18-29 were 18% of the vote in 2016 but dropped to 16% of the electorate in 2018.

Did those 18-29 year olds prefer Hillary to Beto? Were they more excited by Hillary? No, they went much more heavily for Beto at 71-29 than for Hillary at 55-36.

But that 71-29 is partially offset by the fact the young vote is a smaller sample than during presidential years. Older voters are more dependable to begin with, and it takes much less to convince the reluctant or infrequent older voter to show up in a midterm, even if they hadn't intended to. I have seen studies on that.

When one of our phone bank types grabs a list of younger voters and calls them all day long, the gain is less than a GOP phone bank caller who targets older voters all day long. That is not debatable.

I used Florida as OP example because Florida was the devastating situation of a changed electorate from 2016 apparently dooming Nelson and Gillum. I had another thread indicating that 44% (actually 46% in the current adjusted exit poll) indicating Gillum was too liberal for Florida. That number would not be close to 46% if 17% of the Florida electorate were 18-29 years old, like 2016, as opposed to only 10% this year. Young voters did not show up in needed percentage in Florida, and it was glaring throughout the early voting process. Who cares if the raw number is rising compared to irrelevant disaster cycles like 2014, when the youth number is not keeping pace with gains among other key brackets? That goes back to my football example of a team thinking it is making wonderful progress in practice...until it actually encounters a different team.

Beto did a great job keeping the 18-29 level somewhat close to presidential split in Texas. Gillum and Nelson didn't come close to that. Different state. More upside among previously uninvolved youth and minority voters in Texas. But I doubt Beto in Florida could have motivated the 18-29 group to remain within 2% of its 2016 level.

Complicated situation. But nobody should ever forget or deny this aspect:

In midterms were are totally at the mercy of independent voters. When they slant our way, like 2006 and 2018, we do fine. When they favor the other side it is nightmare scenario because our voting blocks don't turn out in sufficient numbers and GOTV can never salvage the situation.

[octoberlib]

18. This is interesting. Thanks for posting.