Haven't lost anything.
Some investors on Predicit never wait for the outcome. They really don't care about the outcome. I was mentioning this to DemocratSinceBirth via PM when he asked about scalping a boxing match. Some guys have a good feel for line movement, whether it is sports or politics. They grab a favorable price that they are convinced will shift dramatically the other way, then they grab the favorable a price on the other side, and guarantee a profit either way.
Guys on Predictit were bragging about that, especially during the Kavanuagh hearing. That market was moving like a penny stock. When Dr. Ford was giving her testimony it plunged below 40 then after Kavanaugh lied it bumped to nearly 80. This was within hours, and not exactly unpredictable.
Likewise, I'm sure there are countless sharps on Predictit who took Sinema on election night at favorable number, knowing there were 500,000+ votes to be counted, and now have turned around and played McSally at a similar favorable number, knowing there are still a quarter million or so to be counted. Below 10 or 15 on each side...paying to 100. Not bad.
Successful gambling is not nearly as difficult as outsiders want to believe, solely due to that math aspect. I scalped (arbirtrage) and played middles all the time during my 24 years in Las Vegas. It is profitable and fun. Some guys were doing that full time and never actually risking money on whether or not some team covered.
Now it's less available because of corporate mergers limiting the number of independent sportsbooks. Instead of 40 different sets of lines in the Las Vegas area it might be 15. And instead of those numbers just sitting there allowing legwork to pick them off, they are viewable online and bettable online.
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