Crossover votes from Republicans apparently won it for Sinema

[Awsi Dooger]

Lots of hype about that possibility everywhere, but mostly tame indications and no dramatic examples except this Arizona senate race.

Independents surprisingly did not break our way, according to the exit poll. They were split at 49-49. Contrast to neighboring Nevada, where independents favored Rosen over Heller 57-37 according to the exit poll.

I am still familiarizing myself with Arizona as it becomes a swing state. I know the registration favors Republicans significantly statewide (+140,000 or thereabouts) but I have seen reports that some of it is soft, especially in Maricopa County.

Apparently so...the exit poll reveals Sinema losing only 3% of Democrats while grabbing 12% of Republicans from McSally.

There were 31% in the exit poll who identified as Democrats to 39% as Republicans. With independents equally divided, you can see the necessity of Sinema yanking those crossovers.

Granted, with so much hand-delivered and mail-in voting the exit poll in Arizona may have more margin for error than in other states. I'll check it again as it is adjusted to actual vote count. That can take months. There were only 1091 respondents in the Arizona exit poll compared to more than 3000 in Florida and 2400 in Texas.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona/senate

[msongs]

1. "you never count your money while you're sitting at the table..." nt

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Yeah, I wanted to word it differently

But it was awkward at maybe/maybe

[Cha]

2. So it's pretty much official.. Sinema

got John McCain's old seat? Wonder who Cindy voted for?

Thank You, Awsi! Seems like it would have to be crossover.. Good on Them Voting their disgust of trump.

[BlueintheSTL]

3. This was Flake's seat

Another Senate pickup opportunity will be the special election in 2020. That is McCain's seat. Any other good candidates in Arizona that can grab his seat?

[Cha]

8. Oh Thanks for telling me, BlueintheSTL!

I knew it that wasn't right.. somebody would be along to educate me.

If indeed Sinema wins I imagine there will be great Dems who will step up to the plate!

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Somebody on Predictit mentioned a crossover Republican now registered Democrat

Former attorney general.

I think his first name is Grant.

Don't know anything about him or if that type of resume would play in a Democratic primary

On edit: I found the guy. It is Grant Woods

http://ktar.com/story/2300490/former-republican-arizona-ag-grant-woods-is-now-a-registered-democrat/

[Sedona]

14. Ann Kirkpatrick

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Kirkpatrick

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Thank you

Sounds like a logical candidate. I forgot about her after the 2016 race, which wasn't exactly a massacre especially given the green party taking 5.5%, which can't happen again

[sweetloukillbot]

4. Cindy did tweet when the Republican Party sued over the vote counting...

Link to tweet

[Cha]

10. I saw that, sweetloukillbot! that's what

made me think to ask.. Thank You

[sweetloukillbot]

5. A Conservative, but Independent friend of mine voted for Sinema

He caught a lot of hell from his Conservative friends about it. He didn't like McSally's campaign - the negativity turned off a lot of people.

[Iterate]

6. So maybe the respect shown at McCain's funeral mattered after all?

It's a good rule-of-thumb to never screw with other people's funerals, Jerry Falwell excepted.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. I should mention the opposite example

According to the Montana exit poll, Tester lost only 1% of Democrats.

That is amazing and we couldn't afford much more than 1%, the way that one went.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/montana

These are categorized as things I notice while losing a large wager on Canes +4.5 against Georgia Tech and then watching my alma mater USC blow a 14-0 led against Cal

Nice night

[RockRaven]

12. Sadly, this points to a way for Repukes to hold the Kyl (McCain) seat in 2020

and that is for Repuke primary voters to choose a not-McSally. But will they?

[allgood33]

13. A lot can happen between now and 2020.

[Awsi Dooger]

15. We have two chances to win that one

Or we have to win it twice in a row, depending on perspective.

McCain's seat will have a special election in 2020 then full term in 2022.

I don't know much about Arizona politics but I think the GOP just won most of the statewide races. Perhaps somebody from that group attempts the senate. Kelli Ward might try again, although they clearly rejected her this time.

Kyl said he won't run so it's wide open

[in2herbs]

19. I've read a couple of posts (here and elsewhere) claiming that Ducey will appoint McSally to replace

McCain when Kyl leaves in Dec. (if McSally doesn't beat Sinema.)

[True_Blue]

17. Crossed over or didn't show

My new Democratic Congressman Greg Stanton won AZ district 9 in Maricopa County easily with 60% of the vote. He campaigned on holding Trump accountable. District 9 definitely does not have 60% of registered Democrats in it. I'm guessing the Republicans must've either crossed over or didn't show. I think McSally's critical mistake was cozying up to Trump.

[obamanut2012]

18. I work with a man who is a lifelong Repubican

He is approximately 45.

He has never voted for a Dem.

He voted straight blue ticket here in SOFL. As well, his views have turned that way, too. He is a Parkland father, although his kids are still in the middle school there next to Stoneman Douglas HS. Parkland AND Trump have turned him into a Democrat, but he hasn't changed his registration affiliation yet.

And, in AZ, they remember how Trump treated McCain.