Bill Nelson needs a miracle in Florida. It likely won't come.

[brooklynite]

CNN:

Democrats hope a manual recount will overturn the results of Florida's Senate election and pave the wave for Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson to keep his Senate seat.

...snip...

History says this is very unlikely and Republican Gov. Rick Scott will maintain his lead over Nelson. Indeed, there doesn't seem to be a precedent for the type of change Nelson needs to overtake Scott.

Scott holds a little more than a 12,000 vote lead over Nelson. That amounts to an advantage of about 0.15 percentage points, which is well within the 0.25 point margin needed for a manual recount required by Florida law. This margin may seem small, but for recount purposes, it is actually quite large.

According to a FairVote database of statewide recounts from 2000 to 2015, the average recount moves the margin by 0.02 points. Nelson needs the margin to move by nearly eight times as much.

[bearsfootball516]

1. I never really expected him to win the recount.

12,000 votes is a huge number to have switch in a recount.

[still_one]

2. That isn't the point. The point is that people who voted have their votes counted

[FM123]

4. As a Broward County voter, I feel exactly this way!

[DFW]

3. Probably not, agreed, however

Given Scott's corruption and his desperate maneuvering and legal acrobatics, I think he is acting like someone who has more to conceal than your average narrow winner. The recount is mandated to be paid for by the state anyway when it's this close, so I'm all for Bill Nelson pushing for taking it down to the last vote.

** "He who does not believe in miracles is not a realist." -- David Ben Gurion

[OAITW r.2.0]

5. 2020 could be a whole 'nother story in FL.

Giving 1.4MM felons, who have done their time, their voting rights back could be a total game changer there.

[Baitball Blogger]

7. The outcome will not change in 2020 if we don't fix these fucking machines now.

[Blue_true]

11. It won't change if people on our side that are able bodied and not traveling insist on mailing in

votes. The machine count is going to favor republicans because they got off their asses and voted early and in person more. A 12,000 vote margin becomes huge when that happens.

[Baitball Blogger]

14. The reason that Dems in Florida began voting with mail-in ballots was to

provide them with a paper trail in counties where there were no paper trail. Not sure there are any counties like that any more.

[Blue_true]

16. All of Florida has in person paper ballots that are scanned. nt

[Blue_true]

13. Republicans voted using the same machines.

They just made more certain that their fucking votes got counted, everyone on our side did not.

[Baitball Blogger]

15. This year, Florida did not have mail-in Ballot confirmation.

In the past you could look it up and see if your ballot was received. Not sure why they discontinued that helpful feature.

[Blue_true]

17. Because they realized doing away with it allowed them to trim hostile votes better.

They are not going to give us political control. We are going to fucking have to take it by becoming more attentive voters.

[NewJeffCT]

6. recounting the votes already tallied probably won't make a huge difference

however, I think Nelson and Gillum both are still fighting for uncounted ballots to be tallied in the first place - if that can happen, then Nelson especially does have a chance.

[Blue_true]

12. If our people had voted in person more, that would not have happened, their votes would be in the

tally.

[Hassler]

8. Even if Nelson wins the recount, it will come down to McConartist and the GOP Senate to pick the win

[LenaBaby61]

9. Nelson nor Andrew ....

Were going to ever win. It appears that in Bay County that folks were allowed per the clerk of that county to fax and mail in copies of their ballots. How are you going to detangle that? You can't. And who who knows how many Dem votes were gotten rid of by Scott in Liberal areas of Florida? Same goes for Stacey in Georgia. IF voting were fair in Florida and Georgia, all 3 if them win their races. Unfortunately, Florida will continue going down hill and become even more polluted with thuglican leadership. Those who didn't vote for DeRacist and Alien Scott are in for a long and unfortunate slog.

[Blue_true]

10. I Florida, our side won't win consistently until we stop beating ourselves.

We likely lost both top races in Florida because healthy people that could have voted in person chose to mail in ballots instead. Before someone from blue states that have mail in elections lecture me, FLORIDA AND GEORGIA IS NOT CALIFORNIA, OREGON OR WAHINGTON STATE. Republicans play dirty in Florida and Georgia, it is the residual Deep South BS. Republicans in Florida maximized in person early voting, and it looked like they voted for their party. Our people chose to mailin ballots and either got them lost in the mail or they got tossed out and not counted, who knows how many ballots we lost that way.

We need to make it a point to vote in person until we have removed key republicans from office and made the process of voting fair.

[elocs]

18. Who thinks that there were not more than 13,000 people in the state of Florida

who would have voted for the Democratic candidate who just didn't bother to vote in the midterm election?
Because in the state the size of Florida there were likely hundreds of thousands of people
who would normally vote for Democrats who just didn't vote.
Who should we blame for that?