Today 16 House Dems sign letter vowing to oppose Pelosi

[JaneQPublic]

MORE...
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/19/pelosis-bid-for-speaker-imperiled-as-public-opposition-grows-1005368

[Iliyah]

1. I believe GOPers are behind this.

Pelosi will be the majority speakers.

[TheBlackAdder]

23. It's "LET'S MAKE A DEAL TIME!" The only time they're relevant is shaking down the Democratic Party!

[FarPoint]

29. Yes they are indeed...

Republicans want us divided and unable to focus on stopping them and tRump....

I am only doing quick a glance at DU due to the Trump style posts ...

[INdemo]

32. Of course they are and if we think we really have the Majority in the House

think again. These 16 will obviously, along with the damn Repukes, fight Nancy Pelosi on legislation every step of the way.
We have a Democratic Caucus with 16 Republican Lites if not actual Republicans.
They are there to disrupt the House proceedings against any anti- Trump actions...
Mark my word the fU8kng Republicans are certainly behind these 16 outcasts.

237-16= 221 which still gives us enough votes to elect Nancy Pelosi.

[Bfd]

2. 14 Men 2 Women

FOURTEEN MEN
14

[JaneQPublic]

6. Quite a lopsided group, isn't it?

And while they don't say whom they're voting for instead of Pelosi, you can bet 90 percent of them want the job for themselves.

[Bfd]

9. Chest puffing & imagine how much grander they appear in the anti-Dem clubhouse

[erronis]

79. They want the job to go to any one of the repuglicon moles masquerading as a (D)

[bdjhawk]

3. Emailed my rep Bill Foster to express disappointment

I was surprised and extremely disappointed he was part of this.

[CountAllVotes]

4. Sell-outs

All of them!

You know who not to vote for the next time their name(s) appear on a ballot!

[Bfd]

7. That's exactly how you handle it. They are a disappointment & an embarassment to the Democratic Name

And begin the task now to primary them in 2020.

That is the message they need to hear from constituents. Then wait for thei pathetic reason why they did so, when they have to answer to their State Democrats, standing by themselves, without beimg surrounded by the club in DC.

[JCanete]

52. you mean in the primary of course. nt

[Kaleva]

5. 12 incumbents, three freshman and one candidate whose race hasn't been called yet.

Clearly, it's not the newbies that pose the problem for Nancy, it's the returning veterans.

[Bfd]

8. 3 is still part of the sum of 16.

[workinclasszero]

10. The Gang of White Men

This is a move to the right and needs to be stopped dead in it's tracks!

[Bfd]

11. Yes. Republican election ads ran anti-Pelosi messaging. Tying her name to the Dem.

Yes, it is a RW message.

[Old Vet]

65. I would never second guess Nancy, Shes got quite a few been-there done that in congress

[stopbush]

12. And there is the self-announced line up of House back benchers for the 116th Congress.

Political suicide within your own party. Idiots.

[JaneQPublic]

15. Yep, the Progressive Caucus backed Pelosi & got plum assignments

Don't ever say progressives don't know how to play politics for the win.

From Politico:

It wasn’t a coincidence that moments after Nancy Pelosi promised progressive House leaders more power in the next Congress, a host of liberal groups announced they were supporting her for speaker.

Rep. Pramila Jayapal, who is expected to co-chair the House Progressive Caucus next year, left a Thursday night meeting with Pelosi in the Capitol and proclaimed that her members would have more seats on powerful committees and more influence over legislation.


The Washington state Democrat then phoned MoveOn and Indivisible with the news, and they promptly tweeted out support for Pelosi. Then, on Friday morning, Jayapal, previously uncommitted on whom she would back for speaker, gave Pelosi a full-throated endorsement.

“No one can really doubt Pelosi’s progressive chops,” Jayapal told POLITICO in an interview. “And I do think, for the next two years, as we lead into 2020, and are coming off this big wave, we need someone who is smart and strategic and has done this.”

MORE...
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/16/pelosi-speaker-progressives-congress-998595

[suffragette]

35. Very glad to see this. Pramila continues to shine! Such a strong contrast, showing Progressives

uniting in purpose to work together for positive change while conservative Democrats seem to be more engaged in tearing the party down from inside. Really demonstrates why it is important to elect as many Progressive Democrats as we can.

I hadn’t heard about Pramila being expected to become co-chair of the Progressive Caucus before. That is excellent news!

This really merits its own OP.

[NurseJackie]

13. Attention-seeking behavior that serves no good purpose.

[bluestarone]

14. WE DO NOT need this shit

DIVIDE and CONQUER! (That's what this will do)

[lilactime]

48. Exactly.

[Squinch]

16. She still has the votes, with plenty to spare, to be elected Speaker. Why are

we giving this ridiculousness any attention at all?

[JaneQPublic]

17. Actually...

According to WaPo:

"Pelosi can only afford to lose the votes of 15 representatives."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/pelosi-speaker-whip-count/?utm_term=.add9a40f6125

I think it's a safe bet no GOPers will be voting for her.

[JCanete]

53. what happens if she loses those votes though? doesn't somebody still need to do better? nt

[LiberalFighter]

57. After the Democratic House Caucus decides who to name as their nominee.

Will they be brave (stupid) enough to vote against Pelosi before the whole House?

[Squinch]

67. But that's only if those 15 representatives vote for the republican. I don't think any

of these people saying they won't vote for her are saying they'll vote for the republican.

So right now, we have 232 House seats. republicans have 199. If 16 Democrats abstain from the vote, or if they put up a second Democratic candidate that they vote for, Nancy still has a 16 vote margin.

The only way she loses is if they vote for who the republicans put up. That would really be political suicide. I just don't think its going to happen.

[Me.]

18. Numbers Please

please inform...if you don't mind

[JaneQPublic]

21. Here

From the WaPo article I cited above:

As House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi works to shore up support for her bid to be become speaker of the House in the 116th Congress, The Fix is analyzing whether she has the votes to win the position. Right now, it’s not clear that she does.

If the current leads hold in the five outstanding House races not yet called by the Associated Press, Democrats will control 233 seats next year.

This means that Pelosi can only afford to lose the votes of 15 representatives. Currently 22 oppose her, and 67 are dodging questions.
This assumes that every Republican will vote against her, and no members vote present.

The Democratic caucus will vote on their leadership on Nov. 28, and the final floor vote for Speaker before the whole House will be on Jan. 3.

While it is unclear which, if any, members will vote against Pelosi on the House floor, the nine non-incumbent and 13 incumbent Democrats opposed to her would be enough to prevent her from reaching the needed 218 votes. In 2016, 63 Democrats voted against Pelosi in a caucus vote but only four voted against her on the floor less than two months later.

MORE...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/pelosi-speaker-whip-count/?utm_term=.add9a40f6125

Dem House Members' stance on Pelosi vote in tabular form:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/pelosi-speaker-whip-count/?utm_term=.add9a40f6125#FullTable

[Me.]

24. By My Reckoning At This Moment She Has Just Enough

currently 197 + 37 pick-ups -16 = Exactly 218

Now if they can turn some noes...

Signee Ben McAdams (Utah so no surprise there) still needs to win though currently ahead of Mia Love

[JaneQPublic]

28. Sure hope you're right.

Still, it's much too close for comfort.

We need to hammer these clowns. Shout them down at their Town Halls and assure them we can start a GoFundMe page for a primary opponent the second they cast a vote against Pelosi.

Dems by nature are a raucous bunch, but Gawd it gets old the way we're always determined to grab defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Me.]

34. No Room For Mistakes Or Last Minute Changes

There are still a few races (aside from McAdams) that may come in the projection overall is 40 so maybe 2 more in her favor. But you're right, some need to be turned.

[Celerity]

37. update on McAdams / Love

Mia Love grows lead over Ben McAdams as Utah County releases more election results

https://www.heraldextra.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/mia-love-grows-lead-over-ben-mcadams-as-utah-county/article_b4005dfc-f4ba-59b8-b082-dcb8d3ecc2c3.html

[Me.]

40. Hmmmm

[Squinch]

69. That's not entirely correct. They're saying she can only afford to lose 15 votes.

In reality, she can only afford to lose 15 votes to the other side.

That's an important distinction. I believe she very well might lose those 15 votes. Or even the 22 the article cites. But I don't believe those defectors are going to vote for the republican candidate for Speaker. They would never be able to show their faces again.

So, assuming the defectors don't vote for the republican and she loses the 22 votes, she still has 11 more votes than the republicans can deliver.

[JaneQPublic]

73. Except...

...According to Wiki:

"Representatives are not restricted to voting for one of the nominated candidates and may vote for any person, even for someone who is not a member of the House at all. They may also abstain by voting "present".


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives

[Squinch]

75. And that all works in our favor. The only thing that doesn't, math-wise, is if a Democrat votes

for the republican.

[Squinch]

68. At this moment we have 232 House seats. republicans have 199.

If 16 Democrats say they won't vote for Nancy, and instead they are going to vote for the candidate that the republicans put up, then we have a problem. But that would be political suicide for those 16 Democrats. I can't imagine anything dumber.

If 16 Democrats say they won't vote for Nancy and they abstain from voting, or if they put up a second Democratic candidate and those 16 vote for that second person in order to appease their constituents, Nancy still has a margin of 16.

I'm really not going to worry about this.

[stopbush]

19. It's almost unfair how EASY these 16 members are making things for Pelosi.

First off, they’re letting her know two months in advance where her oppositin lies. Stupid.

Second, she need turn only ONE of the 16 to lock up her election as Speaker. All she needs do is reach into her bag of political goodies and hand out a treat or two to those the least wedded to the idea of opposing her. All she need do is remind them that the gang of 16 have nothing to offer each other, but that she can put any one of them in a position with some gravity.

Yep. Pop Warner vs The NFL.

[Iliyah]

25. My understanding that two have not won yet . . .

[Squinch]

70. Is it stupid, or are their constituents buying the Fox "we hate Pelosi" line,

and they are making an astute political move when the math shows them there is little risk to the Democrats' power in doing so?

I'm not saying I know which it is, but it could be either.

[LakeArenal]

20. Now we have a list of House Members who want to Railroad Nancy

For political ambition.

Just like the list of Senators with political ambition who railroaded Al Franken.

Time will tell how it works out for all of them in 2020.

[samnsara]

22. i want to puke

[JustAnotherGen]

26. snicker snicker

Usual suspects. *sigh*

I hope they are happy about the discord they are sowing. Moulton and Ryan are just too different from me. I can't relate. Their issues aren't my issues.

They just don't represent the base of the party anymore. They are fine in their little niche districts but really - shut and lift my salt cap boys.

[Pachamama]

27. Yawn.....

They all made promises to their constituents and are paying the lip service and signing this letter to show they are "doing" something....

Nancy Pelosi is a seasoned "General" of the House of Representatives and she is and will be an effective leader....

Next.....

[JaneQPublic]

33. I had that same response...

...before the 2016 election when certain folks said Hillary's win wasn't a sure thing.

[Pachamama]

61. Bad example- very different things

[unc70]

30. How do few uncalled races fit in this

I have trouble keeping track of the exact number of seats Dems have secured and how many still remain in play. Might matter in this, but probably not. Pelosi and progressives will win this round and these few "moderates" will feel a bit of a chill.

[OAITW r.2.0]

31. Russian Kompromat?

It certainly wouldn't surprise me if more than a few have some things they want to keep hidden.

[themaguffin]

36. YAWN

[Kashkakat v.2.0]

38. Im of two minds about this. Only 16 out of a couple hundred - whats the big deal if a few have a

difference of opinion.... and express it??? Lets see a party that calls itself Democratic just simply accept and work with and try to incorporate differences of opinion into their decision-making process. Oftentimes decisions are stronger and better when different viewpoints are incorporated..

On the other hand, these 16 would be more credible if they had an actual candidate they are in favor of, or if they were to make a positive statement about what it is they WANT in a candidate, what what they are FOR, or in favor of, instead of just saying "we don't want same-old same old."

Well OK, you dont want this, then what is it DO you want?"

If they cant articulate that, if the answer is just "not Nancy," then that's a problem. You cant persuade people of anything unless syou can convey a clear vision of what it is you are proposing.

[LenaBaby61]

39. Linda Sanchez has the NERVE ...

To want Pelosi gone.

She needs to clean up her OWN damn house, LITERALLY.

Rep. Linda Sanchez ends leadership bid after husband’s indictment.
By JOHN BRESNAHAN 11/08/2018 09:32 PM EST

Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Calif.) on Thursday dropped out of the race to lead the House Democratic Caucus and faced questions about her political future following her husband’s indictment on federal criminal charges.

It’s just the latest scandal to hit Capitol Hill. Two indicted members — Republican Reps. Chris Collins of New York and Duncan Hunter of California — won reelection on Tuesday, despite allegations against them, as did Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), who was acquitted of bribery and corruption charges earlier this year.


James Sullivan, Sanchez’s husband, was charged with misusing federal funds to cover personal expenses. Those alleged improper expenses include two trips with Sanchez to the Kentucky Derby, as well as a trip to Key West, Florida.

Sullivan was one of five people alleged by Justice Department prosecutors to have improperly diverted more than $1 million from a Connecticut energy cooperative that received federal funds, according to a statement from the Justice Department. The FBI had been investigating the allegations for more than two years.

“Earlier today, I learned that my husband is facing charges in Connecticut,” Sanchez said in a statement. “After careful consideration of the time and energy being in leadership demands, I have decided that my focus now needs to be on my son, my family, and my constituents in California.”

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/08/linda-sanchez-house-democrats-978770

[JI7]

43. she use to be a republican

[LenaBaby61]

46. 'She used to be a Republican."

Yep, she's someone I've never trusted even after she switched parties.

[spanone]

41. 16 out of 232....pfffft

[Kaleva]

44. Nancy can only afford to lose 15.

[NewJeffCT]

56. Isn't McAdams expected to lose

when all the votes are tallied in his race?

[Kaleva]

60. I think he is but we won't know for sure until it's called.

[Squinch]

71. She can only afford to lose 15 to the other side.

To the other side is the important point here. If the defectors don't vote for the republican offering, which they won't if they want to keep their heads, she can afford to lose 32 (to abstention or to another Democratic possibility.)

[Kaleva]

80. To be Speaker , one must get a certain number of votes.

I think the magic number is 218.

[Squinch]

82. I thought so too, but when I looked it up I'm not seeing any references to that.

218 would be around a simple majority if all the house reps were seated (less 2, but I think that's where thus number is coming from.)

[Denzil_DC]

81. Well, here's a headfake Pelosi could try.

Keep the actual numbers she has secret till the vote in the House.

Come the vote, the Democratic rebels vote "present".

A number of Republican House members buy into Trump's line and vote for Pelosi.

Cue 2020, and those Republicans have to explain to their constituents why they installed Pelosi as speaker.

Ta-da!

[haele]

42. Linda Sanchez, you don't have to hold water for the conservatives in Orange County anymore...

You aren't the only Dem in a sea of Red.
But then again, she has always seemed to have more of a personal dislike of Nancy Pelosi than a professional one.

Ms. Sanchez better watch out for challenges on her left next time around, especially if she votes for the GOP stooge. OC went pretty darn Blue this last time.

Haele

[Me.]

45. She Has A Husband Problem...Indictment

otherwise, she'd be running for something

[beachbum bob]

47. cant wait till they see their committee assignments

[DeminPennswoods]

49. Contacted Lamb's office

and said I voted for him, but if he voted against Pelosi, he would not get my vote again.

[JaneQPublic]

50. Thank You! (nt)

[Cha]

51. I notice Marcia Fudge isn't on there.

[DeminPennswoods]

55. Interesting. She was on the original list, right?

nt

[DeminPennswoods]

54. The 4 problems with the 5whiteguys strategy

1. They have no candidate. Marcia Fudge is "thinking about it", but won't make a decision until after Thanksgiving leaving her little time to corral votes and nothing to offer in exchange for votes.

2. Even if Fudge decides to run, she doesn't have and won't get the votes to win a caucus vote. The 5whiteguys failed to get their proposed idea requiring 218 votes in caucus off the ground.

3. The 3 reps Lamb, Spanberger and Crow are too chicken to sign a letter. They won't be any more courageous when their name is called on the floor.

4. It's a binary choice, McCarthy or Pelosi. Even if they do vote against Pelosi on the floor, they'll just keep voting until a couple of the holdouts crumble.

Then the 5whiteguys are going to find out what happens when you fail to kill the klng, or queen in this case.

[JaneQPublic]

62. Isn't it ironic...

...that the folks demanding new leadership are themselves so clueless about the skills in politcal strategy and gamesmanship necessary to navigate the Congressional terrain?

BTW, great analysis.

[Pope George Ringo II]

76. That number one is huge for me.

They don't stand for anything, they just stand against Nancy Pelosi. I can't tell you how much more respect I'd have for them if they had somebody--anybody--they were trying to put forward as a better candidate. They could get out there and say, "Vote for Elmer Fudd, becauthe it'th Republican Theathon!" and that would actually bother me less than trying to screw over Speaker Pelosi.

[DeminPennswoods]

84. Tim Ryan wants the job

If he thinks what Dem voters want is for the House to be lead by a conservadem from Ohio, then run and make the case. I doubt a message of "American is best represented by center-right white men" will go very far, but he should be willing to make that argument.

However, Ryan knows that idea won't fly in a caucus that just elected record numbers of women and minorities and neither he nor Moulton can realistically be Speaker. So he has to find a stalking horse, someone who will let him be the power behind the Speaker. He tried to get Karen Bass, but she's now backing Pelosi. Now he wants Marcia Fudge, but she just met with Pelosi and as Cha pointed out, did not sign the letter after being part of the original group.

[pamdb]

58. Nancy Pelosi

And five of them have just been elected.

They need to cool their jets. Sit down and shut up and learn to learn.
Hell, they probably haven't figured out where the bathrooms are yet!

[LiberalFighter]

59. What the hell do they think they are doing?

That last line does not make sense.

Therefore, we are committed to voting for new leadership in both our Caucus and on the House Floor.

They can try to vote for different leadership in the Caucus. But once it goes to the House Floor their own option is to vote the Democratic or Republican nominee or not vote. The last two options will be suicide for them. Once the Democratic Caucus decides their nominee they can't put forward their own nominee.

The leadership also decides the committee assignments including the chairs.

[DeminPennswoods]

85. They can actually vote for anyone, not just the party nominees

I recall a few members voting for someone else.

Maybe the 5whiteguys all plan to vote for Ryan or Moulton, then hope that as the voting keeps going until someone gets to 218, more members go for one of them and Pelosi decides to drop out to keep peace. But it seems like more of a plan to try and force Pelosi out before the caucus vote.

[LiberalFighter]

86. Which will likely piss off more Democrats and those involved will find life worse.

[apnu]

63. Whatever, Pelosi will win in a landslide

Especially now AOC has given Pelosi her endorsement.

[Stinky The Clown]

64. Seth Ryan and Tim Moulton can kiss . . . . .

Oooops! They're Dems.

Protected here on DU.

They are really two swell guys.

Yup. Swell guys.

Great Dems.

I

Love

Them

Both

[backscatter712]

66. Contests for the position happen every time there's a new majority.

I try to not put too much into it.

Several Congress critters run for Speaker at the beginning of a new term in the House.

I'm a hell of a lot more fine with any Democrat as Speaker than yet another tool like Paul Ryan.

[jalan48]

72. Are they conservative Dems who need to do this to pacify their base a la Manchin?

[Blue_true]

74. Did McAdams win in Utah? nt

[MFM008]

77. Terrific pulling together

To fight the orange menace.....

[zipplewrath]

78. Seems a tad late

Look, if these existing members wanted to "blame" her for the loss of the majority, fine, but we're a few years too late. It does seem a bit strange, just as the Democrats are taking back the House in the "year of the woman" that suddenly her leadership is being put in question. I'm not bit backer of Pelosi, but this is really no time to have this fight, especially considering that she's admitted that she's going to move towards a transition. Quite honestly, one would think people would be looking to influence the transition, not mucky up the waters for it.

[sunonmars]

83. For a start Birindi's seat has not yet been won, bit premature of him.