It's a good thing the GOP is passing these Voter ID laws...
One in every 403,225,806 votes cast in the US since the year 2000 has been fraudulent. That got me to thinking. I wonder what crazy things are more likely than someone casting a fraudulent vote in-person. Here's what I found:
Dating a Sports Illustrated swimsuit model - 89,000:1
Getting hit by an asteroid - 200,000:1
Being killed by a vending machine - 112,000,000:1
Becoming President - 150,000,000:1
Winning the $640 Million Mega Millions lottery back in March - 176,000,000:1
Also included were being killed while 1) crossing the street (47,000:1), 2) getting struck by lightning (700,000:1), or 3) being hit by a bus (200,000:1). I couldn't find the odds of being struck by lightning while crossing the street and getting hit by a bus.
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If getting struck by lightning, getting hit by a bus, and crossing the street were independent and unrelated events, you'd be looking at 1 in 6,580,000,000,000,000. Pretty unlikely.
But I'd be willing to bet that 99/100 people who get hit by a bus are also crossing the street, so if we assume that those two go hand in hand, then we're looking at odds of around 1 in 10 billion for hitting the trifecta.
But then again, you'd have to look at where people are when they get struck by lightning and if there's any correlation (positive or negative) with where buses are likely to be, generally urban areas. I'd guess a negative correlation, so maybe the true number is closer to 1 in 20 or 30 billion or so. 