Iowa Poll: First poll of likely caucusgoers finds Biden, Sanders, O'Rourke atop the field

[StevieM]

WASHINGTON (CNN)Former Vice President Joe Biden holds the pole position in the first CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll among likely 2020 Democratic caucusgoers, with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke joining him as the only possible candidates in the field with double-digit support.

The new Iowa Poll finds 32% of likely caucusgoers saying they back Biden as their first choice, 19% Sanders, 11% O'Rourke, 8% Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 5% California Sen. Kamala Harris, with the rest of the 20-person field testing below 5% support.

The top three candidates in Iowa, including O'Rourke's third-place ranking, match the top three in a national CNN poll released Friday. Early results nationally are often driven by name recognition, but in Iowa, the campaign is already underway, with several of the tested candidates having made multiple visits to the state, and at least one having already visited all 99 of the state's counties.

Iowa's caucusgoers, who get the first formal say in who the party's nominee will be, mostly say they are looking for a winner (54% want a candidate who can defeat Trump) over ideological purity (40% want one who shares their positions on major issues). Those who prioritize a winning candidate are more apt to back Biden and O'Rourke than the overall pool of likely caucusgoers (36% in that group say they favor Biden, 14% Sanders, 14% O'Rourke) while Sanders outperforms his overall number among those looking for a candidate who shares their issue positions (30% Biden, 26% Sanders, 8% O'Rourke).

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/15/politics/cnn-poll-iowa-2020-caucus/index.html

[apcalc]

1. Extremely disappointing.

Put Stacey Abrams, Kamala Harris in there I could be persuaded. Otherwise BOR-ING. And TOO OLD.

[Renew Deal]

5. Harris is in there.

Or do you need persuasion to vote against Trump.

[apcalc]

8. I believe Trump will be gone before 2020.

He will not be a candidate imo.

[Renew Deal]

12. So you might vote for the republican if it's not Trump?

[apcalc]

16. My point is that we need younger candidates who will inspire and excite ALL aspects of our base.

[Blaukraut]

2. Iowa's population is not representative of the US

I wish two of the whitest states in the country wouldn't get to basically set the tone for the rest of the primary season.

[Renew Deal]

6. Which state should vote first?

[Journeyman]

11. Instead of the present, flawed process . . .

where people in Iowa of all places have a disproportionate influence on who leaves the race early and who is seen as a "frontrunner," I favor dividing the nation into 6 geographically-contiguous electoral districts instead and the choice of which district should vote first would rotate among them, so every 24 years each of us would have an opportunity to vote first in the Presidential primary.

All states in an electoral district would have their primaries on the same day. This way, campaigns would focus on a select geographic region -- costs would be lower, there wouldn't be as much travel required, and the media buys would be more focused as well, since neighboring states would be addressed at the same time.

There'd be the added benefit that citizens of each district could expect (indeed, demand) that politicians address the regional issues of their concern as well as the national issues, thereby denying the candidates the opportunity to hide behind national platitudes instead of answering specific questions important to a select electorate.

If the primaries were held every 3 weeks, the primary season could be over in some 3 to 4 months, which might help focus every voter's attention earlier in the process.

A means needs to be found that would allow lesser known, less financially enabled candidates to compete (something the present "small state" first primaries help), but I'm certain public financing of all campaigns, and a sincere desire by all Parties to accommodate all viable candidates, a way can be found to overcome this situation.

It'll probably never happen, unfortunately. Too many vested interests with too much at stake in the present, crippled system.

[Baconator]

3. I wish Hickenlooper would make a better go of it...

[Renew Deal]

7. I think he will if he chooses to run

He would be the only governor from the list of people in this poll

[Rhiannon12866]

4. I'm not fussy these days, I'll gladly vote for any of them

And I just heard this from the pundits on with Rev Al, the Democrats have to get it together this time around and unite behind the candidate. We know that the Republicans like to cheat, so we have to make sure that our vote totals don't give them a chance!

[LakeArenal]

9. I agree. But too many trolls inciting discord.

[rurallib]

10. My take is that of the potential candidates Biden, Sanders and O'Rourke are the three

most recognizable names.

When people work all day and then deal with family matters at night there isn't a lot of time to read, listen or engage in conversations about politics to a great deal of depth.

Biden was VP with a very popular president among Democrats. Been around for a long time.

Sanders got a huge amount of national publicity from his run in 2016 and continues to be a media regular.

O'Rourke was the darling of the most recent campaign who raised lots on money and got much nationwide press - especially because he ran against Ted Cruz, one of the most hated politicians among Dems and Repugs.

Name recognition is the #1 commodity in elections. Iowa is simply not a media hotspot.

We will be expecting quite a flurry of candidates coming in over the next few months. Next week Ron Wyden and Sherrod Brown will be visiting.

Remember that Barack Obama was getting much national media notice in the two years prior to the Iowa caucuses. Maybe Iowans didn't know much about him, but they had heard the name.

As for me being an Iowan, I like Amy Klobuchar as of today. I would bet there is only about 20% of Iowans have ever even heard of her.

[StevieM]

14. I don't know if O'Rourke has a bigger name ID than Elizabeth Warren.

Maybe it is slightly greater than Kamala Harris or Corey Booker. But I think you have to give him some credit for getting by those people. Obviously, there is something about him that the voters impressed.

I plan on supporting Tom Steyer. I am not sure how much name ID he currently has. But I am hopeful that he can take off as the race moves forward.

[rurallib]

15. Coming off the last campaign, O'Rourke's name was in the news more than Warren's

at least around these parts. Certainly there was something that impressed folks, but for right now name recognition is probably most important.

[EffieBlack]

13. Iowa - the microcosm of America ...

[elocs]

17. It's very early. What candidate wants to be in the position of the front runner this soon?

I think Biden enjoys being a potential candidate as opposed to a declared candidate. But the simple reality is that he missed his opportunity to run in 2016, has run before, and you just don't get unlimited chances to run for president.