The "Gallup" Poll "Gallup" Doesn't Want You to See

[ProSense]

The "Gallup" Poll "Gallup" Doesn't Want You to See

by joelgp

Many have speculated that Gallup's tracking polls are inaccurate and biased against Obama. Today, we see clear evidence of that again.

Here's an example of the criticism:

"Over the past few years, however, polling junkies have noticed something curious: Gallup's polls have produced results that appear slightly but consistently more negative to President Obama than those produced by other firms.

The Huffington Post has conducted an independent analysis that confirms the phenomenon and points to a likely explanation. The problem lies in the way that Gallup handles the racial composition of its samples, and the findings highlight significant issues with how polls are developed and conducted today."

So today, I read this blaring headline:

"Poll: No, Americans aren't better off than 4 years ago"

The headline gives the impression that Americans hate Obama, he made their lives miserable...you know the drill.

However, buried deeply under that "diversionary" headline was this:

"Even so, President Obama, who in 2008 became the first African-American elected president, maintains a lead over challenger Mitt Romney in the battleground states likely to decide the election, 47%-44%. That's better than his standing in the non-battleground states, where Romney leads 47%-45%."

What?

First, why are they still telling us "who in 2008 became the first African-American elected president?"

- more -

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/20/1122059/-The-Gallup-Poll-Gallup-Doesn-t-Want-You-to-See

So Obama leads in swing states and Romney leads in non-swing states? Yeah, right!
Still, the report is hilarious. It's about Gallup's current swing state poll, which shows Obama ahead by three points, but check out the graphic with the story:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-08-20/swing-states-poll-obama-romney/57158152/1

Here are two graphs...

Gallup and Rasmussen only:



All other polls:



http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/18/1121497/-Why-I-remove-Gallup-and-Rasmussen-from-the-Abbreviated-Pundit-Round-up-charts

[cthulu2016]

1. re: So Obama leads in swing states and Romney leads in non-swing states? Yeah, right!

Why would that be surprising?

Everyone knows the deep red states are more lop-sided-ly red than the deep blue states are lop-sided-ly blue.

[ProSense]

2. What?

"Why would that be surprising?

Everyone knows the deep red states are more lop-sided-ly red than the deep blue states are lop-sided-ly blue."

There are more Democratic voters and electoral college votes in non-swing states.

Take 12 swing states, and you have 38 non-swing states, at least half of them are solid blue.

Are you suggesting the Gallup is polling more heavily in deeply red states?

Also, that really wasn't the point of the OP, which is the undeniable skewed results Gallup shows compared to other polls.

[cthulu2016]

3. The point of the OP aside...

I was not commenting on the point of the OP. I was commenting on what appeared to be a dismissal as obviously false something that may be false but is certainly not obviously false.

The reliable red states are, in fact, more skewed, internally, than the reliable blue states. (Meaning Romney will get a higher % in Alabama than Obama will get in Rhode Island, though both states are very safe for their respective candidates.)


Put another way, Nate Silver gives Romney twice the chance of winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college as he gives Obama of doing the same thing.

But are quite unlikely, of course, but since Romney's states are more lop-sided than Obama's states Romney will get more "wasted" votes.

[ProSense]

5. Do you realize

"Put another way, Nate Silver gives Romney twice the chance of winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college as he gives Obama of doing the same thing. "

...what a huge difference a couple of points on the popular vote represents?

Millions of votes. Also, it's not unusual for the chances of winning the electoral vote to be higher than winning the popular vote.

[ProSense]

4. Another thing

Why is Gallup burying the lede?

The poll clearly shows that regardless of whether or not Americans feel they're better off, there is no advantage for Romney. Obama still leads. This is very important given that these are swing states.

The title rightly should be: Obama leads by three point in swing states.

[cthulu2016]

6. I agree

I am not defending Gallup's editorialization or how they present their results.

(For future reference, it's "lede." One of those odd terms where the incorrect seems more correct. "Lead," as in lead paragraph makes eminent sense, but the term is, oddly enough, lede and probably comes from old type-setting terminology.)

[ProSense]

7. Thanks,

"For future reference, it's 'lede.'"

Yeah, I know. That a silly error for someone like me (a journalism major) to make.

[ProSense]

8. Kick! n/t