Want to Win in 2020 ?

[Horizens]

With Sherrod Brown at the top of the ticket the Dems win Ohio, MI, PA, Wi, NY, NJ, CT, RI, VT, MD, VA, DE, MA, VA,
DC, MN, OR,CA, NM and IL. That's 277 Electoral votes - enough to win. No other candidate can make that claim.

AZ, NC, ME and FL would also be in Play.

I was thinking that Amy Klobucher would be the perfect running mate but now have doubts given the news about her this week.

[IluvPitties]

1. Could be. However, let's hear from all of our candidates and learn about them more.

All of them deserve a shot.

[elleng]

2. Mebbe.

My only concern about a Brown/Klobucher ticket is geographical.

[Garrett78]

3. We'll likely win all of those regardless of who we nominate, except for Ohio.

Harris puts North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona in play.

[standingtall]

15. All those states will already be in play

regardless of the nominee. I don't see how Harris from California would do any better than Hilary did in those states.

[Garrett78]

16. The demographics. And Harris hasn't had a target on her back for the last 25 years.

Not all of our potential candidates will put GA and NC in play.

[standingtall]

17. The demographics didn't carry either Abrams or Andrew Gillum to victory there

and there from those states. Yes republicans cheated and they will cheat in 2020 too especially sense they are in control f the machinery of those states. I think we need somebody who can appeal to cross demographics on the top of the ticket if we are going win any of those states.

[Garrett78]

18. They came extremely close in a midterm election.

Turnout is always much, much greater in a presidential election.

There's no reason to think Harris, like Obama, won't appeal to a cross section of our electorate.

[standingtall]

19. Yes there is Obama's run was organic

and after his 2 terms we nominated Hilary if we double down and nominate Harris it could feel manufactured to some of the cross over voters Obama got.

[Garrett78]

20. I'm not sure what you mean by organic in this context.

Obama gave the keynote speech in 2004 and wasn't some overnight success. Like Harris, though, he wasn't in the Senate for long before running. It's best if candidates don't develop a lot of baggage, which could be why the average age of our last 5 Democratic presidents was just 48 when taking office.

Clinton, on the other hand, was victimized by 25 years of hate.

Nominating Harris is not doubling down. Re-nominating Clinton would be doubling down.

Are you suggesting that nominating any woman constitutes "doubling down" simply because Clinton is also a woman?

[standingtall]

21. By organic I mean there was not a huge push initially

to get Obama nominated he became a star at the speech he gave at the keynote address and later convinced people he could win.This soon after Obama's Presidency and Hilary's nomination it may be risky to nominate Harris.

[Horizens]

24. ".... except for Ohio !!!

That's a HUGE, 18 electoral vote, exception.

It's possible, NOT likely, that we'll "win all those regardless of who we nominate." As of today it's probable that a Brown/Klobucher ticket will win those states.

Harris doesn't put NC, GA, FL and AZ into play any more than Brown/Klobucher.

[Garrett78]

30. Yes she does. Because of demographics.

And most of the states you listed are solid blue.

[Horizens]

34. That's Just Plain Silly

"And most of the states you listed are solid blue."

PA, MI and WI are so blue that trump won their 46 electoral votes and the election.

[Garrett78]

35. What is silly?

I said most of the states you listed, not all.

As for PA, MI and WI, see post #12.

[MissMillie]

4. I'm with you

I like his prospects with the Electoral College.

I think those prospects get even better if we can find him a southern female running mate.

[Ohiogal]

6. How about

Sherrod Brown/Stacy Abrams?

[Glamrock]

8. A girl after my own heart...

I'm so down with that ticket.

[MissMillie]

9. SOLD!!!! (n/t)

.

[standingtall]

14. I like that

[Horizens]

25. Brown/Klobucher is a stronger ticket and

I'm hoping Abrams runs for the senate in GA. Also hoping Orouke runs for senate in TX.

[Celerity]

33. THAT is a superb ticket, I would SO vote for that

[Freddie]

5. Brown/Harris would be awesome

[Fresh_Start]

7. would be better to diversify the ticket...

both geographically and ethnically IMO

[world wide wally]

10. You left out CO

[Garrett78]

12. Plus HI, NV and NH. And the OP lists VA twice.

The OP is basically a list of stark blue states and a handful of battleground states.

And people should keep in mind that we won PA and MI in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections. We won WI in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections. In 2020, we aren't running a candidate who much of the country was conditioned to hate over the last quarter of a century, Trump no longer benefits from newness, and I doubt the Russian social media campaign will be as effective.

The new frontier of battleground states will include GA, AZ and TX. To go along with NC and FL. Forcing Republicans to spend more resources in those 5 states will be beneficial.

[bearsfootball516]

27. AZ is going to be a real problem for Republicans come 2020 and beyond.

Immigration is having a huge impact. By 2024, I won't be surprised if it's light blue. Trump only one it by 4 points and that was against a candidate that, as you mentioned, Republicans had conditioned their voters to hate with a passion for decades. It could very well go blue next year.

[Garrett78]

31. It definitely could if we nominate smartly.

[Horizens]

28. You're correct

I did leave out CO and I shouldn't have. Can we put up a strong senate candidate in CO and have Abrams and Orouke also run for the senate? If so, the Rep Pres. candidate will be on the defense in those states and, if up against a Brown/Klobucher ticket, also playing defense in Ohio, PA, MI, WI and MN.

[brooklynite]

11. Why can't they claim those States?

Obama won them. What tells you the other candidates in the field won't be able to?

[standingtall]

13. Ohio has moved further right sense Obama was President

Obama would not carry Ohio in this election cycle. The only one that could is Sherrod Brown sense he just won there by double digits despite the state electing a republican governor. We don't have to win Ohio to win the Presidency, but republicans probably do.

[Awsi Dooger]

22. Sherrod Brown probably can't win Ohio either

I'm not saying he couldn't win nationally but the math works against us in Ohio.

Too many whites. Very few Hispanics. That is the problem right there. Favorite son is generally worth 4 points but the gap is more than 4 points in Ohio.

When a state has more than 80% whites in the electorate and only 3% Hispanics, the logical percentages simply don't work for the black vote to push the Democratic nominee over the top in a very tight race nationally. Brown would probably need to be carrying the national popular vote by at least 4-5 points to drag his home state along with him.

My state of Florida takes plenty of grief around here. Meanwhile, Florida has a blend of every demographic and is very close to a true swing state. It is probably the closest thing to the national average of any state right now. It just happens to lean 1 point more red than the national average at base instinct, and Republicans have done a far better job at prioritizing and maximizing the state recently. I have seen that every cycle in my neighborhood.

Ohio does not take the same grief. Meanwhile it is much further removed from true swing state status. The national number in 2016 was 35% self-identified conservatives and 26% liberals. Florida that year was 36% conservatives and 25% liberals. Compare to Ohio which was 39% conservatives and 20% liberals.

Sorry, but at 19% gap, that state is gone for the foreseeable. There is no rescue. It was the same in 2018 with the Ohio exit poll revealing 39% conservatives and 21% liberals despite a heavy blue year. Rural and working class white have shifted away. There are too many of them in Ohio.

Ohio trended our way for a while. But the demographic shift was never real and meaningful like Virginia or Colorado, and now Arizona. Iowa has some of the same issues with even more whites and almost no blacks, but there are more liberals (23%) in Iowa, so that state remains somewhat available given the proper matchup.

[standingtall]

23. Brown was up for reelection in 2018

and he still won handily even with the state trending republican. He will not guarantee us Ohio, but I think he can win it and even if he doesn't he will force Trump to spend a lot of time and money there.

[vlyons]

26. We won't know where we are until

We've had a few debates and at least the first 3 primaries. That will get the field down to the top 3 or 4.

[saidsimplesimon]

29. Horizens,

Why do you think AZ would tag along? Senator Brown is an honourable man, imo. We Democrats have a field of viable candidates to choose from. Of course, I want to win. You have doubts? Please explain or I will ignore anything you post.

[Horizens]

32. AZ

I never said AZ would "tag along" (whatever that means). I wrote that AZ would be in play.

We best all have doubts about winning and be ready to work our butts off as we did in the mid terms. The party needs to be united going into 2020 and I see cracks developing in the "big tent".

I also think being tagged as "socialist" will hurt us. The term is for long been ingrained as a negative in the American Psych. Too many of Dem spokesperson are explaining "socialism". When you're explaining you defending. When you're defending, you're losing.

Don't talk about it. Get elected and do it.

PS: I will spend 0% of my time worrying your ignoring or not ignoring my posts.