Nate Silver: How Amy Klobuchar Could Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination

[highplainsdem]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/amy-klobuchar-2020-democratic-nomination-kickoff/

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar announced her candidacy for president at a rally in Minneapolis on Sunday, becoming the fifth Democratic senator1 to launch a campaign. In contrast to some of the big names — Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren — who had been expected to run for president for years, Klobuchar is a little bit more of a homespun, independent-label candidate.

But being on an indie label has its upsides and downsides. On the one hand, there’s perceived authenticity and the ability to build momentum from modest expectations. On the other hand, there’s the question of whether your product can get into the hands of consumers without having major-label marketing muscle behind it — and, if so, whether it can expand beyond a niche audience.

So this article is meant to provide a relatively comprehensive assessment of Klobuchar’s strengths and weaknesses — rather than being either a “devil’s advocate” argument or a best-case scenario. It’s informed by conversations with Klobuchar’s campaign as well as with unaffiliated Democrats, but the opinions and analysis are my own. As you’ll see, I think Klobuchar’s upsides outweigh her downsides, but there’s plenty of material in both columns.


Four potential advantages


-snip-

[Awsi Dooger]

1. Terrific article by Nate

As always, I love how he focuses on the big picture aspects and the math, while mentioning the recent news and how it potentially impacts her campaign, but not giving it absurd weight or a spot near the top, as less astute analysts would have.

Some highlights:

*Very strong performance in Minnesota relative to logical expectation. In looking at that related 2018 table with Sanders, Klobuchar and Beto bolded near the top it's easy to conclude one of them should be our nominee. That's probably why my immediate instincts months ago drew me to Beto first and Klobuchar second, without relying on a table. It was obvious those two had vastly outperformed normalcy for a Democrat. Sanders is too old, not a Democrat, and I'm wary of the socialist tag. The other two are perfectly positioned toward electability, which is what Nate spotlighted at the beginning of the article. The fact that both are immensely likable not only contributed to the strong performance in their state but also lends to electability. Nate didn't mention likability as supremely necessary against a presidential incumbent, but I will.

* However, Nate properly wrote that Klobuchar has low margin for error toward the nomination. Yes, it is a great term and an aspect I always prioritize. Margin for error is everything in sports or politics or anything else. Nate emphasized that Klobuchar doesn't have an obvious path toward the non-white vote in the primaries, nor "a lot of initial appeal to the left." Exactly. IMO, Klobuchar is a markedly superior candidate to Kamala Harris in all the vital categories like regionalism, likability and electability. But I acknowledge it will not be viewed that way by the typical primary voter, and hence Kamala Harris begins with more buzz and considerably more margin for error. Klobuchar will have to be quickly special to make up the deficit and weave through the maze.

* I'll paste a couple of paragraphs Nate wrote about the staffer issue. I think he summed it up perfectly. In my words, voters won't care but Amy is not facing a general election first. The same type of overreaction we have seen here in recent days can impact Amy's organization and margin for error among party big shots. That type is not immune to overreaction and misplaced fear.

This is what Nate wrote:

"They also reek of inside-baseballness. Having a reputation as a bad boss can be problematic within your industry. But without salacious details, it’s not the sort of scandal that voters are liable to care all that much about.

At the same time, the nomination process is to some extent an inside game. If, as the HuffPost story claims, Klobuchar has trouble recruiting the layers of highly talented staffers that the other candidates have because of a reputation (well-earned or not) for being an abusive boss, that will hurt her. It will hurt her more if it signifies a general wariness about Klobuchar among Washington insiders, which could yield fewer endorsements and less willingness by “party elites” to rally around her if the field has been winnowed down to two or three candidates."

[CaliforniaPeggy]

2. She certainly sounds interesting. I'll keep an eye on her. n/t

[Garrett78]

3. Like Nate wrote, so much hinges on the Iowa caucus, which hinges on...

...how Klobuchar does in the debates and who else jumps in the race (Brown, Biden, etc.). I doubt she'll gain much traction, but time will tell.

[question everything]

4. Good article

(can no longer R but can K)